Meadowlands: Are surface changes in store on Hambo Day?

Hambletonian Day is upon us and you can't wait to cozy up to a set of your favorite past performance product to put your handicapping prowess to the test. While the process of using past performance to decipher today's winner is a cornerstone of betting on harness racing, doing so with regard to the Hambletonian or Hambletonian Oaks may leave you with the wrong impression in 2022.

The one constant from the eliminations of all races was that virtually every horse appeared to get slower. We say "appear" because a horse like Rebuff, the presumptive favorite in the Hambletonian, did not suddenly lose 13 lengths of speed as the time disparity of 1:52 4/5 versus his 1:49 4/5 mile would have you believe. Something was different and it was the surface of the track at the Meadowlands.

After a string of weeks where records were seemingly being wiped away over a lightning-fast surface, the track played much slower on elimination night for the two trotting classics. There was clearly a deeper cushion on July 30, and the times reflect it as horses that were routinely finishing their miles with 26-and-change quarters were struggling to get home in 28 seconds.

"I didn't think the track was bad. It had more cushion on it, but something felt wrong if you looked at those eliminations. They went [1:]52 2/5 and [1:]52 4/5, and most of them looked like they were all-out late. Maybe it bothered some horses more than others. I'm sure it will be a lot tighter Saturday," said trainer Marcus Melander, who had five horses in the Hambletonian elimination round with three making the final.

According to Meadowlands Director of Racing Properties and Track Ryan Napierala, what you witnessed last Saturday is the surface they look to offer the horses every week but haven't been able to due to weather.

"That's a normal track when the weather is good because the horses want a good cushion. There was no rain and we didn't have to change it 100 times like we normally would when there is weather," said Napierala, who went on to explain why the track had been so fast during previous weekends. "We've had rain every weekend for the last five or six weeks. It has been a crazy summer with the rain. When you get consistent rain the track will be tighter and harder because it is safer. God forbid you get a torrential downpour before the third race, if your track is set for a normal racing night it would be gone. It is more of a precaution."

The big question for those handicapping or even trainers looking to prepare for the stakes-filled Hambletonian Day card at the Meadowlands is what to expect on August 6 when more than $3.5 million will be on the line. Will we see the fast track from Meadowlands Pace Night when Rebuff equaled the track record for 3-year-old trotters and Bulldog Hanover set a new all-age record for pacers at 1:45 4/5 or will we get the Hambletonian eliminations surface?

"If the weather is good the track will have cushion on it. We are not out there for the times. We are out there to keep the horses racing. It is about safety and you don't want a horse breaking down," said Napierala. "Ideally the best track is not too deep and not too hard, a happy medium. That's what I try to shoot for because it keeps the pacers and trotters happy."

Although much of the New Jersey area around the Meadowlands is showing a rainfall deficit, unfortunately for Napierala, the precipitation that has hit East Rutherford tends to arrive on the weekends and the forecast is calling for similar this week. The National Weather Service is calling for dry weather until at least Thursday afternoon (Meadowlands races Thursday at 6:20 P.M.) and potential chances through the weekend, with Thursday evening at 30%, Friday at 60% and Saturday showing a 40% possibility of showers and thunderstorms after 3 PM. The good news for those hoping to avoid the heat is temperatures are expected to drop from 99 on Thursday to a more bearable 86 by Saturday afternoon.

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The difficulty for everyone participating in the Hambletonian Day festivities is that racing starts at noon and concludes at 7:15 P.M. Much can happen during the day and a track that starts somewhat soft with a cushion could turn hard by the time the Hambletonian rolls around at 6:35 P.M.

"When there is live racing the horses have the track, you have to get off at a certain point whether the rain is going to start or not. It takes a little longer, and I can't put my rollers out there like you would to prepare for bad weather normally," said Napierala. "Let's say we are in the third race and we are expecting rain in the eighth race, I'm going to start doing what I have to do as soon as possible. I'll start screening it and try to tighten it up as fast as I can. I'm not going to freak out and make it go from soft to concrete, but you have to be cautious."

Handicappers are advised to check the sky or a trusty radar app on their phones when trying to decide how much weight to place on the Hambletonian and Oaks eliminations. Rebuff, although he finished in only 28 seconds, appeared to complete his mile easily with something left in the tank while a horse like Venerable, who went from a 25 4/5 final quarter in the Del Miller to 28 1/5 in her Oaks elim, looked a bit tired in the late stages despite winning. Manon was nearly perfect prior to the Oaks and came up flat over the "changed" surface. Warrawee Xenia clearly relished the surface and gobbled up ground late in her Oaks elim. How much weight do we put in that effort or the one put forth by the horse she beat Fashion Schooner, who looked nearly unbeatable over the fast tracks but more ordinary last weekend?

"I know when the track is lightning fast she has gone her best races over it," said Campbell, perhaps considering a rain dance to provide a slightly harder surface for the Hambletonian Oaks final.

One certainty come Hambletonian Day is that the situation is fluid. Weather, equipment changes, altered training schedules and more could turn a moderate contender or even an outsider into a winner, just as a track changing from one start to the next could make last week's standout this week's also-ran.