Meadowlands: Analysis for Saturday 9/19

MEET STATS: 39-10-7-8 / $83.60 (+$5.60)
BEST BETS: 3-2-0-0 / $5.40 (-$0.60)
BEST BET: ALLYWAG HANOVER (9th)
SPOT PLAY: ALBERGO HANOVER (4th)

Race 1: Non-winners $4,500 in last 5/Opt. $15,000 Clm/TM Rating 77.5 or less - Pick 5

(1) WOODMERE OLEKSIAK finished reasonably well but had too much ground to make up versus a faster foe. I'm going to stay here one more week. (2) CHARMS LITTLE SIS went a long mile from post 10 and held very well. She's likely going to be a heavy favorite now. (5) CLASSY CHAPEL N drops off a decent mile where she picked up four horses late. (3) WHITEHAVEN LASS A was close to a pretty quick pace coming out of the same race as #5. She fits but I'd want a decent price.

Race 2: Non-winners 2/3 races or $25,000/$30,000 life

(2) LIGHT BLUE MOVERS changed barns and qualified like a champ at Pocono. If he posts a similar mile here, they'll be racing for second. (4) QUESTICHAP exits NY state-bred competition. She seems fast enough to compete; using. (10) DUBAI PRINCESS broke on the barn change last time. She's more than fast enough to win, but comes with issues and a bad post.

Race 3: Non-winners $12,500 in last 5/TM Rating 85.55/8 races life - Pick 6

(6) LYONS RIVER PRIDE qualified very well for this barn on August 25 and then got a tour of the track at Yonkers from post 8. I'd expect to see early speed this week and hopefully she can best likely favorite (2) JK FIRST LADY, who exits the PASS Championship and is the fastest horse on paper. (7) DEMETER N arrives from Australia as a wildcard in the field. Qualifier wasn't bad at all finishing behind two quality mares.

Race 4: Non-winners $2,500 in last 5

Dig deep into (10) ALBERGO HANOVER's past performances and you'll see he's been in this barn before and was winning in four-to-six classes higher than this one. The post isn't ideal. The 40-day layoff is concerning. That said, if he shows up, he wins. (6) LAST GUNFIGHTER was racing competitively versus much better when at Philly. I'll be shocked if he isn't gunning to the front. (4) ALL WEEK just missed in this class a week ago and he does move in a couple of spots on the gate. (9) CAMPORA N drops in class off a huge mile; clear player if put in play from the outside post.

Race 5: Non-winners $4,500 in last 5/TM Rating 80.1 or less

(3) AMERICAN INFLUENCE has been holding his own in the upper classes at Freehold, which may just be tougher than the NW4500 class here. He fits very well with this group. (5) ROCKIN THE ACES picked up some confidence versus cheaper and has the class to pair together wins. (4) UNLOADED N drew outside and really had no chance last time. He raced well in this class three and four starts back from good posts. (9) ABERDEEN HANOVER has some early speed and can take air if necessary; capable.

Race 6: Non-winners $7,500 in last 5/TM Rating 81.6 or less - Pick 4

NYSS champion from 2019 (3) THE FUN MARSHALL has taken some time to find herself this year but now seems to be firing on all cylinders. She switches to the conditioned ranks and takes on elders but looks like a good fit and will offer value with Tetrick opting to #1. (9) EXOTIC DANCE missed nearly four weeks and didn't miss a beat, going down the road versus cheaper company. She has the early speed and form to be a major factor, though I wouldn't take a short price. (1) MANHATTAN PLAY has been racing reasonably well and has an upset chance in this field with the right trip.

Race 7: Non-winners 4/6 races or $60,000 life

There isn't one horse in this field I feel comfortable leaving off of my Pick 4 ticket. If pressed into a selection, I'd try (2) MY PAL JOE, who put in some nice miles in NYSS action and seems to be talented enough to go on the big track. (10) ACTOR HANOVER has the speed to get position early and might even be able to sweep the field from the back if he can reproduce the 25 4/5 last quarter from a week ago. (7) UHTRED beat the top pick last time, but the margin was only a length and the difference in price is going to be much larger.

Race 8: Non-winners $10,500 in last 5

(2) WES DELIGHT did his best to close but even a 26 2/5 final quarter wasn't enough to make a sizable dent late. Now with a couple of starts under his belt, perhaps he's ready to pop off a big mile. (1) ITALIAN DELIGHT N is certainly sharp but having trouble getting over the top lately. (5) AFLAME HANOVER has picked up his game with Miller in the bike and was once a nice 3-year-old.

Race 9: Non-winners $14,000 in last 5 - Pick 5

(6) ALLYWAG HANOVER exits stakes competition and should be able to find his way back to the winner's circle. (3) RODEO ROCK charged home from an impossible spot last time and now picks up Sears. (10) CAPTAIN GROOVY has proven himself capable of blasting down the road. (4) LIKE CLOCKWORK might be sharp enough to get into the number.

Race 10: Non-winners $20,000/$24,000 in last 5 or 11 races life - Pick 4

(5) U S CAPTAIN put in a strong mile last time after four weeks on the sidelines. He gets the perfect post tonight and is the one to beat, though this is a strong field, so don't take too short of a price. (9) ANGERS BAYAMA came up a bit short versus a classy foe last time after missing four weeks himself. He's a must-use here. (10) SAN DOMINO A was done no favors with post 10, but given the right trip, he should be very competitive. (7) HARAMBE DEO waited behind a fast pace and took advantage last time. Don't get sucked in here at shorter odds because he'll need help to repeat.

Race 11: Non-winners $7,500 in last 5/TM Rating 83 or less

(7) PALOMAR made a brief break last time but otherwise seems to be in good form. I'll probably want to see him on the track before wagering, but he's more than capable of popping off a big mile in this class. (1) GRIFFON HANOVER has now raced well in both starts for the new barn. Classy veteran is a fit in this class. (3) ROCK LIGHTS was racing in a higher class when last seen here. (4) OCEAN COLONY came up short in this class a week ago at 3-5. It's hard to love him here but also hard to toss him.

Race 12: Trackmaster Rating 73 or less

Another tricky race in a late Pick 4 sequence that is full of them. (2) GRANDPA DON was used hard last time and tired. Now he drops out of claimers and picks up a catch-driver. (1) WALKS OF LIFE has done well here in the past and this is certainly his comfort level. Tetrick driving this week could mean a lower than acceptable price. (9) SPORTS VISION is another horse exiting claiming races for an easier spot. The price should be right if you want to take a shot that Ginsburg puts him in play. (3) S MCKEE is certainly sharp but I'm not excited by him at what will likely be an underlay price.

Race 13: Non-winners $2,500 in last 5/TM Rating 75.5 or less

(3) CRAZY ABOUT PAT returned from a break in action with a solid effort at Freehold. Ten-year-old continues on the road to one million in earnings and might be able to tap into his class here. (2) FIJI might not be the horse he was a couple of years ago but he's in better form than it seems on paper. Abbatiello hops back in the bike and perhaps he can shake him up. (10) DEEP IMPACT is the fastest horse in the race on paper and he seems to have righted the ship with hobbles added. He's not the worth play at the right price. (1) PRINCE OF MINTO continues to drop in class in search of a win. (4) LIFE WELL LIVED drops for a sharp barn and wouldn't be a surprise.