Meadowlands: Analysis for Saturday 8/7

CHAMPIONSHIP MEET STATS: 346-116-67-63 / $676.40 (-$15.60)

BEST BETS: 26-9-8-3 / $31.20 (-20.80)

SPOT PLAYS: 26-9-7-3 / $54.60 (+$2.60)

BEST BET: CAPTAIN BARBOSSA (12th)

SPOT PLAY: TATTOO ARTIST (4th)

Race 1: Winners 2-5 races or $85,000 life - Pick 6

(6) HIGHLANDBEACHSBEST faced Perfect Sting last week and raced well to lose by two lengths in his first start with Lasix. I'm looking for him to be very aggressive in this spot and perhaps take a lifetime mark. (10) SOUTH BEACH STAR has already proven capable of popping a big mile and while post 10 isn't ideal, he has the early speed to either leave to the front or for a tuck. (7) PIRATE HANOVER must've known I finally gave up on him last week because of course he scored at 8-1. He's a player on best. (2) ALWAYS B SWEET and (1) LITERL LAD HANOVER both add Lasix and either one can play with these with some improvement.

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Race 2: $97,550 Shady Daisy 3YO Filly Pace

(4) FIRE START HANOVER beat many of these last week and simply lays over this field. It's hard to imagine a scenario where she loses. (3) GRACE HILL moves to the inside of the gate and likely will be on the move as it springs open. (1) OFF THE RECORD comes off a solid finish behind the top pick last time.

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Race 3: $50,000 Muscle Hill 3YO C&G Trot - Pick 5

(5) DANCINGINTHEDARK M made a costly break that cost him a spot in the Hambletonian last weekend. He remains perhaps not so handy, but that really doesn't matter in this field. He can race however he wants and win easily. (7) BALENCIAGA finally burst through with that big mile last Saturday and certainly deserves a long look for second. (4) JUJUBEE comes in with nine wins in 12 starts this year and gets tested for class now.

Race 4: $50,000 Preferred Pace

Speed tends to be even more dominant during the daylight hours at The Meadowlands and (6) TATTOO ARTIST has that trait in spades. Four-year-old faces the softest field he has seen in some time and should be able to get away with a reasonable pace. (3) POSEIDON SEELSTER is another who could fire out. He's stepped up before and this is a winnable spot for him if the trip is decent. (2) NANDOLO N set a lifetime mark of 1:48 4/5 here earlier in the year and he's clearly sharp. (8) DOJEA GIZMO also falls into the category of "very sharp" and he just might be good enough to sneak into the exotics.

Race 5: $276,150 Cane Pace 3YO C&G - Survivor 7

(7) AMERICAN COURAGE had no chance in the Meadowlands Pace elimination or final, so let's draw a line through those races. His comeback qualifier with Lasix added was better than it looks since the track was very slow that day. This is a "show'em if you got'em" spot and I expect Kakaley to put him on the lead and air him out. (5) BILLY CLYDE has as much pure speed as any of these but can't seem to close the deal. He's 100% going to the front here and should sit no worse than the pocket. (2) ROCKYROAD HANOVER seemed a bit short in the Adios elimination and got a conservative steer in the final when he was second again. He seems like a horse that will benefit from the switch to the big track. (4) PERFECT STING could be the favorite here off his win last weekend but I'm not buying into the hype. He's a good horse but I'll need to see a lot more to play him as the chalk.

Race 6: $191,050 Lady Liberty Mare Pace

(2) ROCKNIFICENT battled through fast fractions in the Barton and Haughton yet lived to tell about it with second-place finishes both times. With a somewhat smaller field, this race seems to set up nicely and give her the opportunity to either set soft fractions or sit the pocket in a worst-case scenario. (1) JK FIRST LADY has proven fast enough to beat any of these when given an easier trip. With #2 firing out, Dunn can follow her closely and get that good journey. (4) LYONS SENTINEL capitalized on a fast pace in the Barton and has been very sharp for some time; clear threat. (8) WARRAWEE UBEAUT hasn't found a good spot yet this year and was done no favors by the outside post here, but part of me thinks Gingras could fire out and take a shot at big odds; using, at least underneath.

Race 7: $326,850 Jim Doherty Memorial 2YO Filly Trot Final

(6) VENERABLE is undefeated and has looked every bit the part of a star. The choice here is whether to accept what should be 6-5 or so on this talented Walner filly that I feel confident can trot 1:51 and change now or something in the 5-2 to 4-1 range on (4) JOVIALITY S or (9) MON CHEVAL, who very well may be that good. I'll take the sure thing in terms of speed unless the odds point me in a different direction. Joviality S was a very impressive winner last time on a track that was playing slow. Mon Cheval had an awful trip from post 10 in her elimination. The royally-bred daughter of Father Patrick and Shake It Cerry could be any kind but may just be an underlay on the "poor trip" angle. (7) JIGGY JOG S has raced well in every start and is hard to knock for an exotics spot.

Race 8: $60,000 Vincennes Trot - $75K GTD Pick 4

Let's give trainer Per Engblom credit for turning (4) WESLYNN QUEST around. She turned into a better horse in the three starts since he's had her, with her losses coming to some of the best trotters in training. This is a great spot for her to charge to the front and sit the pocket behind (7) IT'S ACADEMIC, who gets his nose back on the gate and has the shot to get reasonable fractions. (8) GUARDIAN ANGEL AS returns from a two-month break with Lasix added and a pair of good qualifiers on his lines. The class is there if he is ready.

Race 9: $293,450 Peter Haughton Memorial 2YO C&G Final

(4) FAST AS THE WIND had all kinds of stretch traffic last week and finished up willingly when he finally found daylight. Prior to that he was undefeated in two starts. Tony Alagna trainee has good speed off the gate and should be able to work himself into position at a price. (5) KING OF THE NORTH remains undefeated in four trips to the track but really has seen things go his way in many of those wins. Of course he can win, though taking a short price just doesn't seem like smart wagering to me. (2) LETSDOIT S made a big move last week to challenge for the lead but couldn't seal the deal. Nuncio-sired colt, like most of these, is eligible to improve. (9) TEMPORAL HANOVER losses Sears to #2, so that says something, but this guy has never been worse than second in four starts and has the early speed to overcome the bad draw. (1) ROBERTSIN gets a tricky post to navigate but is certainly worth consideration.

Race 10: $157,100 Sam McKee Memorial FFA Pace - Pick 6

(8) NICHOLAS BEACH changed shoes to deal with a hoof issue last week and still romped very impressively in 1:48 1/5. I believe he is the best older pacer in the sport right now and he'll have every opportunity to prove it on Saturday. (4) RUTHLESS HANOVER got another tough trip last week. If it wasn't for bad luck lately he'd have no luck at all. He's good enough to play here and will certainly offer fair value. (6) BACKSTREET SHADOW should be headed to the front as usual and if he gets there without too much trouble figures to get a decent trip.

Race 11: $269,750 John Cashman Memorial FFA Trot

(3) MANCHEGO is almost impossible to go against right now. She is clearly the fastest horse in the race and will likely be sent to the top after the dust settles. (5) GANGSTER HANOVER has raced reasonably well in every start this year despite failing to hit the board. Last time in the Maturity he was shuffled and locked wheels in the stretch. Zeron hops in the bike now and perhaps he can move him up a notch. (9) BEADS has proven to be one of the better trotters on the track right now. If he behaves and can make the front without too much hassle, he should be right there, at least for second. (6) READY FOR MONI had a brutal trip in the Maturity and raced huge to be third. I'm just not sure how the trip will work out well here.

Race 12: $158,500 Sam McKee Memorial FFA Pace - $125K GTD Pick 4

(5) CAPTAIN BARBOSSA was doing good work through the spring when a couple of bad first-over trips derailed the good times in the Roll With Joe and Graduate final. Following three weeks off, he saved ground, ran into stretch traffic two different times and finished under a death grip. He's ready for a big mile and will certainly offer a good price. (6) THIS IS THE PLAN has finished worse than second just once in 13 starts this year. Classy 6-year-old has earned twice as much as the next closest horse in the field and will bring a good effort. (1) CATTLEWASH having drawn post 1 makes this race even more interesting because his game is speed. Does David Miller gun out and try to seat everyone behind or does he try to yield and brush? (3) ALLYWAG HANOVER is a very fast horse who with a trip can beat any pacer in the country. (9) SOUTHWIND OZZI is a bit of a wildcard. Those 1:49 miles on five-eighth tracks translate to 1:47/1:48 here, which puts him in the picture. Does Tetrick leave with him?

Race 13: $187,400 Dr. John R. Steele Memorial Mare Trot

As the race unfolded I thought (5) ATLANTA was a lock to win riding cover and was disappointed with her effort. Upon review of the replay, which revealed she never saw the pylons, had to accelerate quickly on the backstretch to keep up with a mad-dash by Morairtime and only lost by a neck to When Dovescry with a perfect trip, my conclusion is that it was a solid performance. Off that defeat I'm hoping for closer to 2-1 here. (6) WHEN DOVESCRY apparently pulled the shoes last week but I never saw it reported with the equipment changes. She's a player every week but she'll really have to earn it here because #1 and #3 have loads of early speed and it will be interesting to see how the race shapes up. (7) SORELLA is an interesting price play. She closed well from fifth-over last time and displayed some speed at both ends of the race two-back with no shoes. If the shoes come off again, I'd throw her on one of my Pick 4 tickets. (4) HYPNOTIC AM is as honest as they come. At 27-for-29 in-the-money lifetime, she always brings a strong effort, and if the trip works out, a win is possible.

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Race 14: $500,000 Hambletonian Oaks 3YO Filly Final - Oaks/Hambo Double

At this point in time (5) BELLA BELLINI is the best 3-year-old trotting filly in the country. She overcame a tough trip to just miss by a head in her elimination. Expect the trip to be much different in the final as Dunn will likely float away and make a very early brush to the front. Unless someone comes at her hard to set the race up for another filly, she's going to win. (3) AWESOME TRIX shocked many when she saved all the ground to rally up the pylons at 24-1 in her elimination. Many people may call that a fluke, but her progression in recent weeks has been really good and she seems to be peaking at the perfect time. While (4) LADY CHAOS rarely puts in a poor performance, this race could really test driver David Miller because she is typically on the lead and all of the obvious early speed - 7, 9 & 10 - is on the outside of the gate. Linda Toscano trainee can win, but at odds around 5-2 I'll probably pass. It may be a stretch to say (1) DARLENE HANOVER likely won't win the Hambletonian Oaks but she is very much in line to pick up a big piece at big odds with a late rally. (9) YOU ATO DREAM doesn't seem fast enough to win. That said, she has the early speed to get into the race and seems to hang around even after dealing with adversity.

Race 15: $1,000,000 Hambletonian 3YO Open Final

After studying the horses and race closely, I've come away with the opinion that early speed could dominate this race and few horses can leave quite as fast as (6) SONOFAMISTERY. The two tricky factors here are whether he is overbet off a troubled trip last week and whether driver Brian Sears lets (9) AMBASSADOR HANOVER, another very fast horse off the gate, get around him early. The first issue concerns me more as I don't want less than 5-2. On trip, whether he is on the lead, in the pocket or sitting third is irrelevant for me as long as he gets clearance in the stretch. He has sprinter speed and will get the job done if given the opportunity. Ambassador Hanover has also shown to be one of the fastest horses off the gate and the driver change here to Scott Zeron is only going to help the cause. He should sit close at a good price and get a big piece. (4) CAPTAIN COREY put in the best performance of any horse in the eliminations and is the deserving favorite here. Expect Ake to leave, perhaps get looped by the top two, and try to make his way to the top. This son of Googoo Gaagaa seems to be peaking at the right time and could be even faster if Ake pulls the shoes (check the board for changes and hopefully they are posted), but I just don't love him enough to take him as the favorite. Now, if I'm completely wrong and the top three above end up in some sort of speed duel resulting in the race completely falling apart, (8) VENERATE would be the horse I'd like to have on my ticket as a saver. He lacks the quick acceleration of the top pick but can grind with the best of them and will wear horses down if they are tired.

Race 16: Non-winners $12,500 (NW L3 $13,750) in last 4/NW $17,500 in last 4 draw outside

(5) HEZA REAL DIAMOND gave me a nice run for my money at 20-1 last week and now should be up to speed. He's as fast as any horse in the race when on his game and always dangerous in this class. (8) HICKFROMFRENCHLICK caught a killer field in his last stop here. You know he'll be flying off the gate and he could take them a long way. (2) SOMEBODYITREASURE is one of a few in here dropping in class but he's the only one who drew well. (6) SERIOUSLY HANOVER broke and still beat my top pick last time. He projects to get a different trip here, likely from second or third over.