Meadowlands: Analysis for Saturday 8/6
CHAMPIONSHIP MEET STATS: 332-108-80-43 / $592.20 (-$71.80)
BEST BETS: 25-14-3-2 / $51.00 (+1.00)
SPOT PLAYS: 25-6-7-2 / $22.00 (-$28.00)
BEST BET: TEST OF FAITH (9th)
SPOT PLAY: INCOMMUNICADO (11th)
Race 1: Non-winners $20,000 (NW L4 $23,761) in last 5 or 10 races (NW L3 11) life - $50K GTD Pick 6
(2) MY PAL JOE beat up lesser at first asking off the bench then chased home a good foe last time. Five-year-old should be ready for a top effort in his third start back and nice to see Tetrick take the call. (5) BILLY CLYDE is perhaps the sharpest horse at the track and a winner of three straight in this class. He's a must-use on your Pick 6 tickets. (8) SPEEDY DOMINIC A is versatile enough to race from on or off the pace and dug in nicely last time after being part of a quick pace.
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Race 2: Open F&M Handicap Pace
(5) WATCH ME NOW N was stretched out in her qualifier so missing a few weeks shouldn't be an issue. She gets serious class relief here and notice that most of these in here have excelled over smaller tracks while she actually owns Meadowlands wins. (6) DRAMA ACT is going to take all the money in here and there is no denying that she's the one to beat on paper, but only four of her 28 wins have come on a big track and they were all at Hoosier. (7) KEEP ROCKIN A is shipping in from Hoosier herself and sports great form; worth a look if the price is right.
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Race 3: $145,000 Dr. John R. Steele Memorial Mare Trot - $75K GTD Pick 5
(2) BELLA BELLINI lost an irrelevant race last weekend and seems likely to stick closer to the action this time. (1) ATLANTA took advantage of the situation to pick up a sharp win in the Miss Versatility. She's a great mare but at 7 will have to prove she can still hold off the top pick in a stakes event. (6) WHEN DOVESCRY took last week off so you can draw a line through that race. If I knew Miller would gun her to the front she would be a more interesting play. I fear she'll be raced from behind again.
Race 4: $50,000 Muscle Hill 3YO C&G Trot
(3) TESTING TESTING was lined up perfectly behind cover and came up flat in the Hambletonian. Perhaps he didn't care for the softer track surface. He deserves another shot against much lesser today. (8) PRECISE FASHION was perfect since the barn change before an early break last time, though he did pick up 25 lengths after the miscue. Driver change is coming and check the track crawl for equipment changes as well. (1) JUSTICE is the other exiting the Hambletonian. It is very likely that Ake will try to blast from the cones.
Race 5: $337,000 Peter Haughton Memorial Final 2yo Colt Trot - Survivor 7
There was much to deliberate in the Haughton final including trips, which horses could step up and eventually post-time odds. Ultimately my faith that (8) OH WELL can potentially handle a two-move effort and win at about 3-2 outweighed the chances of him get upended by a price horse. (9) CELEBRITY BAMBINO aborted a leave attempt last week in a race where he only had to finish 9th to advance. Expect that he'll keep going forward until he gets near the top this time. (3) WALLANDAR was blocked along the inside in the elimination and likely could've finished third with clearance. Do we see more now that he finally put forth a clean line? (1) KILMISTER took advantage of a spot where a bunch of horses weren't exactly bringing their 'A' game. Now he is undefeated in three starts and potentially looking at a first-over trip at low odds; respect but playing against. (5) CARTER MICHAEL DEO switched barns and finished willingly. If we could get 10-1 again I would take a shot.
Race 6: $33,500 Continental Victory 3YO Filly Trot
(3) DELILAH HANOVER can be excused for the break last time on a track that was playing much differently than in the past. She's been keeping better company than most of these and only needs a reasonable trip to win. (9) PRIMADONNA DEO shot out last time and put up a lifetime mark. That wasn't an anomaly. She has ability. (1) GRACELYN HANOVER is fast enough to win and the inside post will help; needs to trot! (2) MONKEY QUEEN has been right there in all three starts but the price won’t be great and she’s no lock.
Race 7: $92,300 Shady Daisy 3yo Filly Pace
(6) MAX CONTRACT has clearly proven herself and risen to the top of this division. While her off-the-pace style is difficult to trust, this race has enough early speed to set her up. (7) BOUDOIR HANOVER is one of the speedsters in here. She's finished just behind the top pick in each of her last two starts. (4) SWEET TREASURE raced well in her first start since May and could take a step forward. Note that she has never been worse than second in five starts. (9) TREACHEROUS DRAGON just hasn't been the same horse lately. She deserves respect but you'd need 6-1 or higher to even consider her. (3) GALLERIA HANOVER has already proven she is fast enough if given the right trip.
Race 8: $275,000 Cane Pace 3yo Open - $100K GTD Pick 4
The big question is whether (3) MAD MAX HANOVER has truly turned the corner and is ready to beat the horse that bested him in the Meadowlands Pace a few weeks ago (6) BEACH GLASS. The 1:47 4/5 mile "Mad Max" turned in last time was super considering the track was deep and far from fast. Did he just love the surface or would that have been a 1:46 and change mile on a hard track? I don't have the answer for that but taking 5-2 on him versus 3-5 on Beach Glass racing for the fifth consecutive week seems like a smart move. (5) EARLY ACTION went his best mile of the year last time and couldn't come close to the top pick; more this time?
Race 9: $173,000 Lady Liberty - FFA Mare Pace
(7) TEST OF FAITH has proven herself clearly best of this division and her losses all come with legitimate excuses ranging from bad post to unimportant race. Unless she gets a brutal trip I expect to see her in the winner's circle. (2) MIKALA had no shot in the Haughton from post 10 and got an absolutely brutal trip in her prior start. Talented 4-year-old reunites with Brennan and can bring a big mile. (5) RACINE BELL is going to be firing out and you know she'll carry her speed a long way; upset chance if things go her way.
Race 10: $278,000 Sam McKee Memorial FFA Pace - Pick 6
We tried (1) ABUCKABETT HANOVER a couple of starts back and even a 24 4/5 final quarter wasn't enough for him to get close to Bulldog Hanover. Then he was stuck in post 10 and used another 24 4/5 quarter to close from last to fourth. Now with that foe nowhere to be found in the field and seemingly as many as five or six horses which could show early speed to set up his late rally, this is his chance to shine. (6) CATCH THE FIRE was doing double duty while aiming for the Battle of Lake Erie and got stuck with post 9. That was followed by an irrelevant overnight and the Haughton on July 16 seemed to be the race he needed to get up to speed on a big track. Five-year-old seems ready to fire a big one. (9) ROCKYROAD HANOVER is the fastest horse in the field on paper and qualified well in hand on the 30th to prepare for this race. That said, he's got a ton of potential early speed players to his inside and will have to really earn the win as the favorite. (7) POSEIDON SEELSTER was part of a 52 half last year on Hambo Day so you know he has the speed to play here and his last line at Mohawk was huge. He's a longshot with a chance.
Race 11: $60,000 Vincennes Trot
(11) INCOMMUNICADO went a big mile here three starts back then was forced off the course by the starting gate in the Hambletonian Maturity and shuffled out of the race in the Spirit of Massachusetts. The second tier isn't ideal, but his hidden form offers unique value and new driver Kihlstrom is very comfortable navigating large fields. (10) VENERATE hasn't exactly been a model of consistency and he’s another who didn’t draw very well, but his best effort is better than most of these and he comes with a 10-1 morning-line which should play well in multi-race exotics. (7) SCIROCCO ROB is by far the most consistent performer in the field over the track and his current form is solid. (2) AMIGO VOLO has an amazing 24 wins in 53 career starts and yet is 0-for-17 at The Meadowlands in his career. He'd be a fade on the win end at any odds but as the early favorite in the program, certainly a play against.
Race 12: $500,000 Hambletonian Oaks Final 3yo Filly Trot - $125K GTD Pick 4
Despite post 10, nothing has changed in my belief that (10) FASHION SCHOONER is the best 3-year-old trotting filly in this class. While she may not be the fastest off the gate, she can take the air needed to float away and grind her way to the front on the backstretch. I'll take the best horse at something in the 3-1 range and be happy. It's anyone's guess what happened with (4) MANON. Maybe she didn't like the first-over trip or maybe the deeper track didn't agree with her. She's going without shoes for the first time Saturday and getting other equipment changes. Considering her previous form was stellar and her price will be much better, she's worth a play. (5) VENERABLE has been good for the last month after some early setbacks but I've never been impressed with any of her recent performances; good not great. She's certainly capable of winning here but I'll play against at short odds. (3) WARRAWEE XENIA certainly looked the part charging past the field last week. I couldn't blame anyone for taking a shot that she'll repeat at 4-1 or higher.
Race 13: $355,000 Jim Doherty Memorial Final 2yo Filly Trot
(2) ROYAL FILLY went to the front, yielded, pulled the pocket and got caught to the inside by a foe that snuck up on her last week. That's a pretty nice effort from a 2-year-old trotting filly with two career starts. She can only learn from that experience. (7) GRACEFUL PATTY was buried behind a gapper and had to grab up in the stretch when she clearly had trot in last week's elimination. She'll be huge odds here and just maybe can hit the ticket. (6) MAMBACITA has been very good in every start; obvious contender. (5) INSTAGRAM MODEL looked great in her debut but more mortal last time in a race that didn't matter much; turns it around here? Sources say (9) BRUNELLA tied-up last week. She's a talented filly that you won't want to ignore if the price is double-digits.
Race 14: $279,000 John Cashman Memorial FFA Trot
(4) ALRAJAH ONE is the "now" horse in the division after storming home to win the Crawford Farms Trot and following it up with an easy win in the Spirit of Massachusetts. Despite the short field there seems to be enough early speed to set up his rally. (3) CUATRO DE JULIO has been putting in top efforts week after week and he should be part of the exotics at least. (5) EDCURIE D is a bit of a mystery. He looked unbeatable in the Cutler and was just ok in the Crawford. I'm inclined to think we don't see his best game but it might be best to take a look at him on the track.
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Race 15: $1,000,000 Hambletonian Final 3yo Open Trot
Since stepping on the track this year there hasn't been a moment where (1) REBUFF didn't look like the best 3-year-old trotter. The Lucas Wallin trainee couldn't have won his elimination much easier and while the inside post isn't ideal, it should allow him to let the others do as they please in the opening quarter and make the winning brush on the backstretch. (7) TEMPORAL HANOVER hasn't gone a bad race in 2022 and last week showed that he can live on the rim and keep finding more; no shoes this week! (4) KEG STAND rallied nicely in just his third start of the year and first on the big track. If the pace scenario sets up as expected with a bunch of the outside horses leaving, he could be coming late at big odds. (2) JOVIALITY is a neck short of perfection but I keep coming back to, who has she beaten of high quality this year? And if Rebuff brushes as I expect, isn't she going to wind up first-over? That said, she's a high-quality filly and if Sears can work out a magical second-over trip, I wouldn't be shocked if she won.
Race 16: Non-winners $10,500 (NW 2L8 $11,601) in last 5/TM 87 or less
(4) WHITECOOKIE double-drops in class and should be very happy to get away from horses that were simply better than him. (1) IMAGINARY LINE has early speed and form. (10) WES DELIGHT is another class-dropper. If he's on his game a down the road win isn't impossible. (7) LINNYCALLEDFRANKIE adds Lasix and could be a surprise package.