Meadowlands: Analysis for Saturday 8/5

CHAMPIONSHIP MEET STATS: 329-113-58-45 / $602.80 (-$57.20)

BEST BETS: 24-13-3-1 / $42.90 (-$5.10)

SPOT PLAYS: 24-7-7-1 / $58.00 (+$10.00)

BEST BET: BYTHEMISSAL (15^th)

SPOT PLAY: SPECIAL TALENT (13^th)

Race 1: Open Pace - $50K GTD Pick 6

(7) SOUTH BEACH STAR is a confirmed speed horse on a track that always favors those tactics in the daylight hours and I don't anticipate too much early pressure to push the tempo. (6) STONEBRIDGE HELIOS has missed four weeks of action and I just don't have confidence that he’ll be firing in a $40,000 race with no tightener under his belt. (5) IDEALSOMEMAGIC A was super in the Gerrity with a flying finish but must prove himself on the big track or offer 4-1+ before I'll consider him an option.

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Race 2: $100,000 Shady Daisy

(2) SYLVIA HANOVER is simply too good for this group right now regardless of trip. (5) BELLISIMA HANOVER faced plenty of stretch traffic last week and never really had a chance to stretch her legs. She should bring a top performance here. (1) BEACH COWGIRL jumped it off before the start last time but that doesn't mean she isn't somewhat talented.

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Race 3: $132,250 Dr. John R. Steele Memorial - $75K GTD Pick 5

(6) JIGGY JOG S missed a neck going an extra eighth of a mile for a barn that was dealing with sickness at the time. If she can race that well under those circumstances, I'd expect an even better performance here at a flat mile. (5) WARRAWEE ZENIA surprised me with her mile last week and perhaps that shouldn't have happened because we know she has a wicked turn of speed. If she behaves anything is possible. (2) M-M'S DREAM raced well again when third behind the former last week. She has to prove herself again here after coming up short but certainly has the credentials.

Race 4: $50,000 Muscle Hill Trot

(5) KILMISTER got unlucky in his Hambletonian elimination when he tucked early from post 10 and got trapped along the cones with no place to roam late. He's sure to be on the lead or at worst in the pocket behind (7) LITTLE EXPENSIVE and should deliver. The latter was used early and paid the price last time. This field is clearly easier. (3) HERODOTUS gets a shot at the big track and certainly could step up.

Race 5: $33,500 Continentalvictory - Pick 4

(9) WARRAWEE YES came down from Canada to take a shot in the Oaks and that shows me they think highly of the horse. She picks up a much more aggressive driver here in Brennan and it seems worth a shot that he can move her up. (1) QUICK STOP is far from reliable but her best probably gets the job done. (8) WILD JIGGY S was in a no-win situation last time from the outside post after missing a few weeks. I can see her showing speed here and giving it a shot for a new driver.

Race 6: $240,000 NJ Sire Stakes 2YO C&G Final - Survivor 7

We live in a "what have you done for me lately?" world and that may provide us a good price on (1) HANKINS HANOVER, who has looked every bit as fast as any in here but took the week off last time. (3) SIG SAUER turned in arguably the most impressive mile of any of these in his last victory while making two early moves and drawing away; dangerous! (6) MY WAY showed maturity on July 21 when he brushed, yielded and came back to win. Muscle Hill colt has long powerful strides. (8) MARS HILL has yet to taste defeat and should offer a fair price.

Race 7: $171,400 Lady Liberty

(5) BOUDOIR HANOVER had pace at both ends of the mile last time in the Dorothy Haughton in her best effort since May. Four-year-old now seems acclimated to the speed needed to win on the big track and can make some noise at good odds. (6) MIKALA has moved her game to the next level recently, which is no surprise as she's always been talented. (1) GRACE HILL hasn't been worse than second yet in 2023. While she is the divisional leader right now, she's far from a sure thing as the likely favorite. (4) SILVER LABEL has shown she can play with these given the right trip and I wouldn't toss her at what should be a fair odds.

Race 8: $128,750 Sam McKee Memorial

(1) I DID IT MYWAY has been a victim of circumstance in his last two starts. Here he can lay close without having to do the dirty work and shake free for the upset chance. (2) MAD MAX HANOVER does his best work when he’s battling near the lead and he hasn’t been put in that situation lately. I'll be looking for Bartlett to put him in play and hopefully track (9) RUTHLESS HANOVER, who is certain to be firing as fast as he can and always dangerous to never look back. (7) ALLYWAG HANOVER's last line is probably a big of a toss but in the Haughton before that he was disappointing. The price probably won't be there to consider supporting him.

Race 9: $60,000 Vincennes Trot - $100K GTD Pick 4

(5) LEXUS KODY was used to secure the lead last time and simply powered away from the field. This group is better but there is really no horse to "fear" if he can repeat his latest performance. (3) TAKE ALL COMERS has the early speed to line up in perfect position behind the top pick and he's won three of four starts with the lone loss coming to Lexus Kody. (8) LOOKS LIKE MONI could be hampered here by the early speed potential of #7. If Zeron works out the right trip this horse can certainly be a player.

Race 10: $500,000 Hambletonian Oaks Final

Perhaps I'm a glutton for punishment but I'm going to come back with (3) BOND again despite a second straight mile where she couldn't seal the deal. Why? I still believe she's the fastest filly in the field and if you look at her final times, she really hasn't gotten any slower. Perhaps a simple change of tactics can right the ship. (9) SECRET VOLO has the early speed to overcome the outside draw and a big enough engine to handle some adversity. It's worth noting that last week she was part of the hot pace set by Bond and was closing best of the leaders late. Trainer Melander said she's racing shoeless for the first time in her career. (1) WALNER PAYTON never throws in a bad effort but I'm simply not convinced she’s the best filly in the field and she'll be favored. (5) RAILEE SOMETHING needs to find a bit more to win IMO but she's certainly a contender in a field with many possible winners.

Race 11: $278,000 John Cashman Memorial

(6) SOUTHWIND TYRION blew away a softer field last time to prepare for this spot. He had no chance in the Cutler from post 10 so we really don't know what he is capable of at this point. I'm willing to try him on the come. (8) VENERATE would've 100% been my pick from a better post, but he's never been that fast away from the gate and I worry about trip. I do think he is the best horse in the field. (9) IT’S ACADEMIC overcame a tough trip in the Spirit of Massachusetts last time while facing easier. He's been super all year. (5) JUJUBEE comes off a track record win at The Meadows last time, though he only came home in 29 1/5. He certainly looked better than at times last year. I wouldn't be shocked if he won or finished 6^th.

Race 12: $1,000,000 Hambletonian Final - $125K GTD Pick 4

While I'm sure his connections would've liked to and thought they would win a few more races along the way, Saturday's Hambletonian is really the race that matters for (2) OH WELL and he lands in the perfect post to do damage with the ability to track (1) CELEBRITY BAMBINO throughout or brush to the front. Trainer Marcus Melander will be pulling out all the stops including pulling the shoes on this guy for the first time. The latter was spectacular in his elimination and will be handful in here. He's no flash in the pan and deserves major respect. (6) UP YOUR DEO was flat as a pancake in the stretch last week but it's also worth noting he hadn't raced in four weeks and hails from a barn that was dealing with sickness in mid-July. If the price is high I'd take a shot. (9) GHOSTLY CASPER has displayed the ability to come fast late and maybe Sears can work some magic to keep him close enough to do some damage.

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Race 13: $240,000 NJ Sire Stakes 2YO Filly Trot Final

(3) SPECIAL TALENT was perhaps a touch green in her debut but trotted home strongly. Last time she did all the work on the engine and was bested by the pocket sitter when she got the jump on her. More importantly, Special Talent battled gamely down to the wire and didn't give an inch once passed. She could be very live at a price. (1) SUNKIST BEAUTY has turned in two strong efforts to start her career and something tells me Svanstedt is going to put him head down and gun out from the cones. (9) ALLEGIANT has been good every week and the only question is whether she'll get roughed up too much trying to get near the front this time. (4) BUY A ROUND was super in start one and perhaps a bit flat last time, though that could be explained by the soft pace she was chasing; contender.

Race 14: $318,750 Cane Pace

Anyone who watched the Meadowlands Pace will find it difficult to make a case against (5) CONFEDERATE. He moves as he pleased and blew away the competition. Is he a complete lock? No. Will he likely win? Yes! (3) SEVEN COLORS paced a 1:20 4/5 final three quarters when third in the Adios last time. He picks up Dunn here but more importantly should have a clear run to the front for position without much early speed to his inside. (7) CHRISTCHURCH was no match for the top pick in the Pace. Perhaps the addition of Lasix will be a difference maker. (11) HUNGRY ANGEL BOY has been super but must navigate a tricky second-tier spot.

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Race 15: $130,000 Sam McKee Memorial

(10) BYTHEMISSAL was a horse I faded last time in the Haughton because there was simply no way he could be ready for a big mile after missing nearly two months. That doesn't apply now and Gingras should be flying off the gate. I'm expecting at least a 1:47 mile. (5) TATTOO ARTIST has been super since the addition of Lasix but has come up short a few times at the wire. (4) FOUREVER BOY had no chance last time but beat up on overnight foes previously. Needs to prove himself at this level.

Race 16: Non-winners $10,000 (NW L2 $11,161) in last 4 or 6 (NW L2 7) races-$60K life/TM 87.35 or less

(9) BRUE HANOVER owns a four-race winning streak and there is no reason that won't continue today. (4) STONEBRIDGE REEF lost in a game try a week ago. He's the one to key in on if the top one has a bad day. (6) HURRIKANE JONNYBOY is off a 1:51 1/5 win at Yonkers! If he drops time moving to the big track they could be in trouble. (3) BOBCAT BAY picks up a new driver and might show more.