Meadowlands: Analysis for Saturday 7/9

CHAMPIONSHIP MEET STATS: 215-68-50-29 / $399.00 (-$31.00)

BEST BETS: 17-11-1-2 / $42.50 (+8.50)

SPOT PLAYS: 16-3-6-1 / $11.00 (-$21.00)

BEST BET: NIGHT HAWK (10th)

SPOT PLAY: STRIDE THE HILL (4th)

Race 1: TrackMaster 81.25 (NW 2L5 82) or less - Pick 5

(2) DECOY found himself at the bottom conditions at Philly before being thrown to the dogs against much better here last time. He's back at his comfort zone now and should offer a fair price. (5) WHAT THE LUCK has form and early speed, which tends to dominate in the daylight hours here. If #8 doesn't leave and he gets away soft, watch out. (3) BIG CHIC MAGNET was just a head behind the top pick last time in his first start for these high-percentage connections.

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Race 2: $125,000 Graduate Mare Trot Final

(2) BELLA BELLINI is simply too fast of a sprinter to pick against her in a short field. She's the only one proven capable of consistently finishing under 26 seconds. (3) HERCULISA needs to head to the front and go slow fractions to have any chance of upending the top pick. (1) HP MAMA B got away easy on the lead and could fend off the top pair last time.

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Race 3: TrackMaster 77 (NW L3/5 77.5/78.86) or less - Survivor 7

(3) FERDINAND A exits the amateur ranks for the first time in a long time and he does so while in good form. Veteran should head to the front and sit a good trip. (4) AIR GUITAR was simply too far back in a field of sharp horses last week; inside post helps here. (6) MV OK PALACIO BR is another sharp horses coming out of the amateur races and picking up a top catch-driver.

Race 4: Non-winners 2 (NW L3 3) races or $22,500 life

(7) STRIDE THE HILL catches a soft group this week and has no excuse for failure. (10) SOUTHWIND DOMINO has the early speed to gun to the front and he’s another who gets some major class relief. (6) SONNY'S MONI looked good in his 3-year-old debut. While this isn't the biggest test in the world, it should serve to show what he has in the tank.

Race 5: Non-winners $7,500 (NW L3 $8,250) in last 5 or non-starters in 2022/TM83 (NW 2L5 84) or less

(8) HAIL CHRISTIAN N drops for the third straight week and hasn’t been put in play in any of those previous races. I’m hoping tonight is the night he's given a chance since the recent 26 2/5 final quarters make me think he's sharp enough to win. (1) LEON DAVID is another class-dropper and one with more of a guarantee that he'll be near the pace. Unfortunately he'll likely offer a shorter price as well. (5) COOL BLUES MAN is more of an underneath play than a win candidate. He can take some air and pick off horses late.

Race 6: Meadowlands Pace 1st Elimination - $50K GTD Pick 4

Sometimes the PP lines don't tell the whole story and that seems to be the case for (8) GREATEST ENDING in his last start. That he was asked for speed in the third quarter and opened up is apparent but the decreasing margin of victory wasn't so much that of a tiring horse and more of a confident driver steering a horse waiting for competition. Dr. Ian Moore trainee should only be tighter from that effort after missing a few weeks due to a foot issue. (5) BEACH GLASS is clearly the horse to beat in this field but perhaps unworthy of your betting dollar as the favorite. If he somehow drifts to 2-1 or higher I wouldn't stop you from wagering. (7) MAD MAX HANOVER has some decent lines if you ignore the post 10 effort in the North America Cup and remember that Tetrick stuck with this guy that night despite the post. (1) I DID IT MYWAY and (2) FROZEN HANOVER both have form and the early speed to make a good trip.

Race 7: Non-winners $20,000 in last 5 or 10 races life or 2 races in 2022/TM 92 or less

(8) BILLY CLYDE came to play in a big way last week and might finally be able to step out. Four-year-old has always displayed talent and he’s certainly young enough to show more improvement. (3) STONE HANOVER was a sharp second behind a better foe last time. As always, when he draws inside and can sit without being used hard early, he’s dangerous. (4) ONE EIGHT HUNDRED has the speed but can’t seem to put it all together. I'd need 5-1 or higher to take a shot.

Race 8: $125,000 Graduate Mare Pace Final - Pick 6

(4) TEST OF FAITH went perhaps the best mile you could go in defeat last weekend over this track. Tonight she faces an easier group and there should be no stopping her from visiting the winner's circle. (5) MIKALA remains undefeated this year and bested the top one on June 25 when she stole the race on the engine. She won’t be allowed to do that tonight. (6) OAKWOODANABELLA IR isn’t as good as the top one but can fire out and last for an exotics slot.

Race 9: $250,000 Graduate Trot Final

(7) SONOFAMISTERY looked to be past his breaking issues until last time when he was set up third-over and jumped it off. Apparently they tried removing his shoes and that simply didn't work. Back to the regular equipment now and we should get a healthy price. (6) RATTLE MY CAGE is nearly perfect in 2022 and he has the early speed to make his own trip. (3) AHUNDREDDOLLARBILL tends to step up at the right times and only needs live cover to have a big chance. (10) CUATRO DE JULIO gets the short straw having to start from post 10 and with other early speed to his inside. He'll certainly be a player here and I wouldn't let him pass you buy if the price is right.

Race 10: Meadowlands Pace 2nd Elimination - $50K GTD Pick 4

(5) NIGHT HAWK was taken off the gate in the North America Cup and that basically sealed his fate. Expect a major change in tactics here as he rolls down the road. (2) CAVIART CAMDEN has the speed but comes with some steering issues as evidenced by his strange journey most recently. If the trip is right and he behaves, an upset is possible. (4) PJ LOU raced ok in Pennsylvania before getting dealt some tough posts in the Messenger. Perhaps he can be involved here at a big price.

Race 11: $250,000 Graduate Pace Final

I'm swinging for the fences here with (3) ABUCKABETT HANOVER. Last week was the first time he raced back on a 7-day schedule this year and he couldn't quite sustain his rally into the beast that is (2) BULLDOG HANOVER. With that one going for a history-making third straight week of 1:47 or faster miles it makes sense to take a shot that he doesn't deliver at what will be odds-on. Abuckabett Hanover has a burst of speed that can match any of these and with outside speed possibly coming from a few horses he could be sitting a good trip. (8) LINEDRIVE HANOVER is right there every week and he seems likely to be put in play. (1) CARBINE looked awesome before his latest Graduate start when he finished seventh at 6-5. I wouldn't jump off his bandwagon too quickly.

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Race 12: Non-winners $14,000 in last 5 or in 2022/TM 87 or less/NW 6 races or $90,000 life

(1) BALENCIAGA lands in a soft spot and should be placed on the engine early in the mile. (4) NYLANDER was thought to be a good horse at one point but never panned out. Seems new trainer Katricia Adams has him going nicely now. (6) SOUTHWIND TYRION continues his comeback trail and looked good at first asking. Can he possibly be the horse he was as a 2-year-old? We'll find out more tonight. (2) THANKFUL NO gets Dunn in the bike and will take plenty of money.

Race 13: Non-winners $10,500 (NW L3 $11,551) in last 5/TM 87 or less

(7) DE LOS CIELOS DEO double-drops in class and is a lock to be firing hard to the front. This guy tends to wake up when he moves down the ladder. (2) STONEBRIDGE REEF and (8) ROCKIN ON VENUS finished second and first last week in this class and both merit consideration here, though the latter also has the question of a trainer change to consider. (1) AS ALWAYS has won at this level before and his best is clearly good enough to do it again.