Meadowlands: Analysis for Saturday 7/5

CHAMPIONSHIP MEET STATS: 250-79-42-31 / $431.90 (-$68.10)

BEST BETS: 18-7-5-1 / $34.00 (-$2.00)

SPOT PLAYS: 17-3-2-4 / $18.00 (-$16.00)

BEST BET: RAPTORS FLIGHT N (3^rd)

SPOT PLAY: REMEMBER THE ALAMO (10^th)

Race 1: Trackmaster 74.5 (NW L2 76.5) or less - Pick 5

(1) SONO CONFUSO is in better form than his amateur lines would have you believe. Four-year-olds fits nicely with this crew and adds Zeron to the team. (5) BLUEBIRD TIME shows actual good form in this class and the addition of Miller can only help his chances. (2) MAJESTIC KIWI N really had no chance last time after chasing slow fractions and considering it was his first start in four weeks. Veteran can make some noise here at a decent price.

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Race 2: Trackmaster 77.5 (NW L2 79.5) or less

I can’t quite figure out why (6) HE’S HALF NAKED elected to qualify but at least it was a good mile. He reunites here with Zeron, who guided him to victory in this class two starts back. (4) LOORRIM LAKE A was disappointing in one sense as my top pick last time but the race did go much faster (1:50 3/5) than he was ready to. This field is unlikely to find anything faster than a 1:52 mile. (3) SAULSBROOK RAPTOR finds a great spot to get aggressive. Two of his last three starts have been from outside posts and he had no shot. His other outings produced better results.

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Race 3: Trackmaster 71 (NW L2 73) or less - Survivor 7

(3) RAPTORS FLIGHT N almost rallied from last on the class hike a week ago. He’s clearly the sharpest horse in this field and I expect he’ll be put in play much earlier. (9) SPIRIT OF TRUTH shows speed every week and gets a good piece as well. I’m using him underneath only in the exotics. (2) SUNSHINE’S FINEST and (7) BIONIC are both capable of putting up a big mile when they feel like it. I don’t trust either horse but I might play a second Pick 4 ticket with them in case they pop at a price.

Race 4: Trackmaster 80.5 (NW L2 82.5) or less - Pick 6

(1) IKNOWBETTER has two starts over the track since the barn change and both have been spectacular. If he brings anything close to the effort from last week then this field is racing for second. (6) LOUIS LITT N is capable from on or off the pace and tonight he gets Boyd in the bike. (3) LITE N SWEET has been very consistent in this class and should get a spot in the exotics. (4) MIDNIGHT NATION came up huge in a victory with the trainer in the bike; threat on best.

Race 5: $230K Stan Bergstein Graduate Pace Final

While I wish (2) SABONIS would’ve won for me last time at 27-1, I’m staying on the bandwagon here after a very gutsy first-over mile. Pelling seems to have this guy peaking at the right time. (10) CAPTAIN ALBANO was able to overcome post 10 a couple of weeks ago when he lost by just a nose despite lacking the needed room up the cones. Four-year-old is the real deal. (6) NIJINSKY is perfect in two Graduate legs now. He beat #10 last time and always brings a game mile. (7) CAPTAIN LUKE has the ability to show early speed and most recently he dealt with a hint of traffic. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him post his best mile of the year on Saturday.

Race 6: Open Handicap Trot - $50K Gtd. Pick 4

(8) ARI FERRARI J went an awful trip last time and actually deserves some credit for not completely backing through the field. This is a much better spot and clearly his race to lose. (5) OUTSIDE THE FIRE went the conservative route and took advantage of the hard work of the top pick to rally for third most recently. I can see him showing early speed this time. (7) CHAPERCRAZ hasn’t been able to handle the elite in this division but usually turns in a good mile against the “b” squad like this group.

Race 7: $230K Stan Bergstein Graduate Trot Final

(2) DATE NIGHT HANOVER lined up behind good cover and came up a bit flat late in the third leg of the Graduate series, which will no doubt deter some people this time around. Still, this gal is as fast as any in here when on her game and with the shoes expected to come off on Saturday that might give her that little edge she needs. (5) PRIVATE ACCESS is undefeated in three starts this year and impossible not to have on any multi-race tickets. (6) SIR PINOCCHIO basically made three moves and only lost by four lengths last time. I’d say that is pretty good. He could be the last of the early speed players to the front tonight and it will come down to whether too many horses come in the middle and he gets a bad shuffle. (7) GRUESOME TWOSOME went a very long trip to the front in his last start and he probably needed that mile in just his second start since November. He’s down to speed now and has a right to pull off an upset given the right setup.

Race 8: 3-Year-Old Open Pace

This could be a tricky race with most of these coming back next week to compete for $656K and no one likely wanting to empty the tank. (4) CAPTAIN OPTIMISTIC seems to me to be the type of horse that doesn’t overextend himself but can grind down a foe on the rim with a big final quarter. The short field should allow him to go his race. (1) PAPIS PISTOL is the wildcard for me because he’s very capable of trying to put up big fractions and wiring the field like he did in Canada last time. (2) FALLOUT picked up some confidence last time versus softer. While I think he has talent, I’m still not convinced he wins many races against the divisional elite without the right trip.

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Race 9: Non-winners $12,500 (NW L2 $14,000) in last 5 or 9 (NW L2 10) races life/TM 88 (NW L2 90) or less

(3) MAXIM HANOVER finished in 25 4/5 but just couldn’t quite get there from an outside post last time. He moves inside, lures Jordan Stratton off his brother’s horse; gets a narrow call in a tight-knit group tonight. (6) CAPTAIN CRUSADER was similarly too far back and missed by just a neck last time out. He only needs a live cover trip to threaten. (1) ROCKIN JUKEBOX sat the pocket behind blazing fractions last weekend at Pocono and picked up a career-best mile. While often I would fade a horse like that, this guy has the class to perhaps keep the good times rolling. (5) TROOPER L was stuck behind a wall of horses and never clear while finishing under a hold when last seen. I’m just not sure he’s fast enough to win here.

Race 10: Winners 4-7 (NW L2 or 3YO 8) races or $100,000 life

(4) REMEMBER THE ALAMO qualified back in good order and has proven this year that he races well fresh. (5) LOU GRANT just missed behind Meadowlands Pace starter Fallout last time in the fastest mile of his career. He fits with these. (8) TARANAKI was stretched out a bit in his qualifier to prepare for his return and he should be ready for a good mile.