Meadowlands

Meadowlands: Analysis for Saturday 7/31

Derick Giwner|Jul 29, 2021

CHAMPIONSHIP MEET STATS: 320-109-62-58 / $626.00 (-$14.00)

BEST BETS: 24-8-7-3 / $28.80 (-19.20)

SPOT PLAYS: 24-8-6-3 / $49.60 (+$1.60)

BEST BET: TEST OF FAITH (8th)

SPOT PLAY: ATLANTA (7th)

Race 1: TrackMaster Rating 84.5 to 88.5/AE: TM winners 86.4 or less last start - Pick 5

(5) LOVELY DONNA drops out of the Opens at Yonkers and returns to The Meadowlands where she set a career-best earlier in the year. Five-year-old should be firing off the gate for Bartlett, who crosses the river since some of the Meadowlands regulars will be in-flight from Adios Day at The Meadows. (2) SHE'S NUN BETTOR N also comes over the river from Yonkers where she was racing very well. In her last start here she was in against open mare Rocknificent and only lost by a half-length. (1) I'M VERY SPECIAL has the early speed to fire out and sit close enough to get an exotics spot.

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Race 2: Non-winners 2 (NW L3 3) races life/Maidens draw inside

It looks like new trainer Per Engblom went back to square one with (1) SEL'S CHOICE, taking off the hobbles in the recent qualifier. The filly qualified well enough behind Oaks starter Swift Swnada; interesting. (2) BALENCIAGA has displayed some ability this year and was much better last time out finishing third in NYSS action. (7) AVENIR has picked up her game with hobbles added but is still hard to trust.

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Race 3: Non-winners $17,500 (NW L2 $19,250) in last 4 - Survivor 7

(1) HIGHALATOR has found his groove in recent weeks and now returns to one of his favorite tracks. The inside isn't ideal but I have to think he'll be protecting position at all costs. (4) STARS ALIGN A hasn't had smooth trips while facing much better foes recently. I wouldn't be shocked if he popped a big mile here. (8) AMERICAN HISTORY got back on track last weekend but wasn't quite as sharp as he has been in the past. It’s hard to say whether he'll fire out from the outside or hope for good fortune.

Race 4: 4-year-old Open Handicap

If it wasn't for bad luck (6) RUTHLESS HANOVER would have no luck at all recently. He was interfered with two back and got an awful trip last time. This is by no means an easy spot but certainly the trip has to get better, right? (4) CATCH THE FIRE rallied from an impossible spot to be fourth in the William Haughton. You have to think he'll be flying off the wings of the gate tonight and prove very tough. (5) TATTOO ARTIST only has two wins but is another with big early speed and the ability to carry it a long way.

Race 5: Hambletonian Oaks Elimination

(8) BELTASSIMA really impressed me two starts back so I'm going to look past her defeat last time and treat it as an opportunity to get a better price. (4) LADY CHAOS has been super-consistent all year while unable to get over the top more often than not. She should have a tactical edge with her early speed and will certainly offer a better price this time. (2) BELLA BELLINI is clearly the horse to beat but far from a lock in a talented field.

Race 6: Hambletonian Elimination - $50K GTD Pick 4

I don't like getting sucked into the driver change angle too often but (3) DELAYED HANOVER seems like a good opportunity since the value will remain due to the competition. Dexter Dunn takes over for trainer Ake Svanstedt on a horse that just trotted in 1:50 3/5. To think that Dunn can get a drop more out of him seems within the realm of possibility. (6) SONOFAMISTERY worked out a perfect trip and finally stayed flat at the wire. He may just be the fastest horse in the Hambletonian if his issues are behind him. (7) DANCINGINTHEDARK M has been simply overpowering his foes by grinding them into submission. He's really going to have to earn it as the favorite. (4) ON A STREAK put in the best race of his 2021 season last week and could be ready to peak. (1) CUATRO DE JULIO had to need the start last week after missing nearly two months. He's in the conversation for sure.

Race 7: Miss Versatility

(12) ATLANTA was done in by circumstance in the last leg of the Miss Versatility and did her best with a 26 3/5 final quarter to no avail. The second tier really isn't that bad for her and hopefully it will mean odds in the 7-5 range on the best horse in the race by a good margin. (6) WHEN DOVESCRY never throws in a bad effort and when she gets the front uncontested she's very hard to beat. (2) NEXT LEVEL STUFF had all kinds of stretch trouble in the Hambletonian Maturity and while I give her a good chance here, I'm worried everyone will be on board resulting in a shorter price than deserved. (10) SORELLA removed the shoes and improved last time. Watch the board to check her equipment this week.

Race 8: Tompkins-Geers 3-year-old Filly Pace - Pick 6

(11) TEST OF FAITH is the best 3-year-old filly pacer in North America and even post 11 can't stop her. With the weather expected to be nice, if the pace is decent we could see a very fast mile. (9) FIRE START HANOVER has been limited thus far in her sophomore campaign but did put in a nice mile two weeks back in the Mistletoe Shalee. (8) GRACE HILL has good early speed and should be firing to the front.

Race 9: Hambletonian Oaks Elimination

(1) DONNA SOPRANO has been brought along brilliantly by trainer Luc Blais, dropping time in every appearance and seemingly in top form in time for the big dance. (7) PIPER HANOVER was super two starts back and somewhat disappointing last week. I'm not going to focus on the most recent try because quite frankly that race is irrelevant in the overall scheme of things. (10) BIG CITY PEARL ships in from Indiana for Verlin Yoder, who usually brings good stock when he shows up. The post is the main problem. (8) MAZZARATI came home in 26 4/5 with Lasix added and now has to go off the medication. Tetrick did choose here over (3) SWIFT SWANDA, the other Hoosier invader. How will she race without Lasix?

Race 10: Hambletonian Elimination - $50K GTD Pick 4

(3) JOHAN PALEMA convinced me that he is this good in his most recent start. He sat a good trip that day but seems in line for another good journey as the obvious speed in the race. (4) IN RANGE isn't the fastest horse in this year's Hambletonian, but he's honest and will bring a good effort at a better price than some of the others. (6) VENERATE looked better last week but realistically wasn't trying to win as much as he was trying to put in a nice flat mile. If he's right, he can win. I'm not sure the price will be worth the risk. (7) CAPTAIN COREY raced well after missing four weeks and he should be tighter now. Does Ake gun to the front? (5) REALLY FAST is going to take some tote action off a strong win but I want to see another before jumping on the ship.

Race 11: Tompkins-Geers 3-year-old Colt Pace

(5) HIGHLANDBEACHSBEST has been in some bad spots of late with little chance to succeed, though he did win a cheaper race at Yonkers last time. Lasix is added to the equation now and he'll have a clear path to the lead here at a price. (8) PERFECT STING is supposed to blow away this field on paper but I'm just not interested in him at 2-5. If he wins, so be it. (7) WHICHWAYTOTHEBEACH qualified back well behind a good older horse but still needs to drop some time to play with these.

Race 12: Preferred Handicap

(7) NICHOLAS BEACH scratched out of the Gerrity from post 8 with a minor foot issue (bar crack) and will race with a window bar this week. There is still no reason to believe he won't handle this group, but the price might make him unplayable considering the unknown aspect of the injury; your call! (4) ANGERS BAYAMA was used hard in the Haughton and paid the price. A clean trip makes him the main danger to the top pick. (3) BRASSY HANOVER is a nice earner who is dangerous when the trip works out well.

Race 13: Non-winners $12,500 in last 4/NW $9000 (NW L2 $9,900) in last 4 draw inside

(8) HEZA REAL DIAMOND tends to wake up when he drops in class and often he returns a good mutuel. (7) DE LOS CIELOS DEO has been chasing better foes lately and content to suck along. In a race that seems to lack early speed, does this guy send hard tonight? (3) SERIOUSLY HANOVER burned plenty of money last time. He's a player, though at 1 for 11 in 2021, not an exciting option. (2) IMA REAL LADYS MAN finally draws well and might get a more aggressive steer.