Meadowlands: Analysis for Saturday 7/29

CHAMPIONSHIP MEET STATS: 301-94-56-40 / $518.30 (-$83.70)

BEST BETS: 22-12-3-1 / $37.70 (-$6.30)

SPOT PLAYS: 22-6-7-0 / $48.20 (+$4.20)

BEST BET: BOND (8^th)

SPOT PLAY: CELEBRITY BAMBINO (9^th)

Race 1: Meadowlands Amateur Drivers Club 2 Pace - Pick 5

(7) I'M BURLINGTON N went a monster mile last week when fourth in this class and won three back in the amateur ranks. As long as he avoids another awful trip, this guy has a huge shot in a rather interesting race. (3) FIRSTUP just missed in his last amateur appearance. New amateur driver should do a good job. (5) CLAYTONS BETTOR N parked out the top pick and hung around nicely. You know he's firing to the front and will go a long way. (4) BRAZEN BRAZILIAN has won two straight and often gets ignored at the windows.

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Race 2: TrackMaster 74 (NW L2/2L4 74.5/75) or less

(5) ROJAN’S WAY seems to have found himself in a race without a ton of speed and this guy has that weapon in his arsenal. (2) JOHNNY Q goes from an amateur to a catch-driver this week. (10) SNOOPY SNOOP and (9) HOWTOTRAINURDRAGON are sharp but stuck on the outside of the gate.

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Race 3: Non-winners $3,000 (NW L2 $3,300) in last 4 - Survivor 7

(3) MS LIZ C hasn't been on a mile track since her first two starts qualifying as a 2-year-old. After a "no shot" try from an outside post in her debut for this barn, let's see if she perks up against a lackluster field with Tetrick driving. (4) HEY HEY DBAY gets an interesting driver change here on a horse that has done well in this condition previously. (10) TRANS MEANIE is capable of firing to the front and taking this field a long way.

Race 4: Tompkins-Geers 3YO Filly Pace

I somewhat expect (6) SYLVIA HANOVER to be raced more conservatively this week but it really shouldn't matter. She's simply better than these. (4) BEACH COWGIRL improved with Lasix added but couldn't build on that as she was scratched-sick in her next start. Filly has ability and can be a player if the top one falters. (2) UCANDOIT BLUE CHIP gives her all every week but is not in the same class as the top pick.

Race 5: Tompkins-Geers 3YO Filly Pace

(4) CHARLESTON was only third last time but that was against older mares. She's back in against her peers and figures to enjoy the change. (7) CULTURED has plenty of my money already but I still believe she has ability and will show it eventually. (2) MY LITTLE CAPTAIN took a big shot in the Mistletoe Shalee and that told me this gal can go a little; needs better trip.

Race 6: Hambletonian Elimination - $50K GTD Pick 4

(5) KIERKEGAARD K got back on track last time, which was a good sign since this barn had gone a bit cold for a couple of weeks. He's got the speed to gain early position and should offer good value in a field with no clear standout. (3) GHOSTLY CASPER went a huge mile last time at Mohawk on an off track when never seeing the pylons. If he can work out a decent trip the possibility is there for a big upset. The time to bet (2) OH WELL was in the Dancer at 7-2. He'll be the favorite here and still has more to prove before he's worth it. (8) SOUTHWIND COORS has turned the corner in 2023 and is every bit a contender in here.

Race 7: Hambletonian Oaks Elimination

(2) HEAVEN HANOVER stepped up nicely stretching out on the big track and while you won't get 11-1 again, you should get a reasonable price. (5) RAILEE SOMETHING also raced well on her test run over the track. She did beat the top pick two starts back on a smaller oval. (6) WALNER PAYTON isn't a horse I'm going to key in on to win but he's a cash machine as far as making the exotics. (3) INSTAGRAM MODEL is a filly I like but it is hard to love her with the unknown of her losing Lasix here.

Race 8: Hambletonian Oaks Elimination - Pick 6

(1) BOND was simply not herself in the Del Miller last time as evidenced by how hard she had to work to make the top. Let's look for a different filly to show up here. (8) RIGHTEOUS RESOLVE ships down with a great résumé and really doesn't face the toughest group outside of the top pick. (6) SECRET VOLO rarely throw in a dull effort. She was used too hard early last time and paid the price; can rebound.

Race 9: Hambletonian Elimination

(5) CELEBRITY BAMBINO took the shoes off last time and was raced very conservatively while finishing with plenty left in the tank. These are connections that will be motivated by the "pick your post if you win" rule and you can expect to see a much more aggressive showing here. (6) AIR POWER was the leader of the division before his break in the Dancer, but it is worth noting he threw a shoe on the final turn and that could've caused the miscue. Don't overlook him here because of the one bad line, even if Dunn chose #10. (3) UP YOUR DEO has shown what he can do on this track and only needs a decent trip to contend. (8) TACTICAL APPROACH likes to show speed and hang around for a good piece.

Race 10: Miss Versatility - $50K GTD Pick 4

It is difficult to separate (3) FASHION SCHOONER and (5) M-M'S DREAM. I'll give a slight edge to the former whether she's on the lead or in the pocket as she seems to have found worked herself into top form and might just be the second choice. The latter was super in the Maturity and won't go down without a fight. Interesting that she stays off Lasix. (4) WARRAWEE XENIA has a big closing kick when she behaves.

Race 11: Tompkins-Geers 3YO C&G Pace

(4) HUNGRY ANGEL BOY has been racing very well but is still somehow winless on the year. He should have no excuses in this spot. (7) TASTE OF HONEY moves to the big track and might just be stretched out early to see what he has in the tank. (3) VOUKEFALAS wasn't right in the Meadowlands Pace and it is hard to know whether he'll be on his game here. I'd want at last 3-1 to consider him.

Race 12: Tompkins-Geers 3YO C&G Pace

(8) SAVE AMERICA raced very well in the Meadowlands Pace to finish fifth and maybe we'll see a more aggressive try here so he earns some respect down the road. The value should be there to roll the dice against a field that has plenty to prove. (1) AMMO has been a horse I've avoided at every turn this year but perhaps this "softer" spot combined with first-time Lasix will make a difference. (2) EL REY lured everyone in with a fast finish in the Pace elim but couldn't deliver in the final. He clearly has a shot here but might not be worth backing at what will be too short a price.

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Race 13: Non-winners $5,000 (NW L2 $5,500) in last 4

(2) STRENGTHANDHONOR N draws back inside and drops in class to a level where he is comfortable. (5) KOLBY TWO STEP has the early speed to make the top and picks up Tetrick now; adds Lasix. (10) REACTOR NOW A hasn't really shown what he can do since arriving in the U.S. Do we see more tonight?

Race 14: Non-winners $10,000 in last 4 or 7 races life/TM 86.5 (NW L2 87.03) or less

(6) EARLY ACTION caught a much better group last time and abandoned his early move two starts back. Tonight is the night to let this guy loose and see what he can offer. (2) STONEBRIDGE REEF returns here at a reduced level and is certainly a horse to fear if the top one doesn't bring his best. (3) MR IBIZA N raced ok in his first start on these shores; more now? (4) REAL PEACE raced well in his first start for this barn.