Meadowlands: Analysis for Saturday 7/22
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CHAMPIONSHIP MEET STATS: 273-85-52-37 / $460.50 (-$85.50)
BEST BETS: 20-11-2-1 / $34.90 (-$5.10)
SPOT PLAYS: 20-5-6-0 / $45.00 (+$5.00)
BEST BET: WALNER PAYTON (12th)
SPOT PLAY: BETTER IS NICE (3rd)
Race 1: Meadowlands Amateur Drivers Club 2 - Pick 5
(1) SKYWAY BILLY tried to come from an impossible spot and couldn't deliver as the field scattered in front of him due to a breaker. Veteran is plenty sharp and could get a smoother journey from the inside. (8) CLAYTONS BETTOR N doesn’t seem to have much early speed in front of him and he could get loose on the lead. (6) YER SO BAD had won two straight before getting taken out of the action by a breaker last time; clear threat.
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Race 2: NJ Sire Stakes 2YO Filly Pace
(7) LORRAINE J hasn't done much in her two efforts other than show early speed but which of these really jump off the page for you? She was fourth in a pretty quick mile last time considering what these are capable of and could wire this field. (2) MY SPECIAL EVENT also got caught in a fast mile of her own two back and broke last week. I'd give her a flyer here. (1) ODDS ON SELENIUM has the prettiest lines but seems like a fade to me as the possible odds-on chalk. (4) PASS THE DREAM had an equipment break in her debut and Zeron does stick here over the top pick.
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Race 3: NJ Sire Stakes 2YO C&G Pace - Survivor 7
(1) BETTER IS NICE sat off pedestrian fractions and paced out of his skin late to no avail while chasing (2) CAVIART JUSTICE. Starting inside that foe tonight he should have the opportunity to cut the mile or at worst case track from the pocket. (5) ENDOFSTORY can wait off the pace and get past a few late.
Race 4: NJ Sire Stakes 2YO Filly Pace
(2) LOVEVOLUTION rated and sprinted home last weekend. She should be sitting first or second tonight with another big shot. (5) PULP FICTION has yet to taste defeat in the morning or at night and will likely offer some value. (3) ODDS ON STENO had no shot after chasing the top pick last time but I didn't love how green she was in the stretch.
Race 5: NJ Sire Stakes 2YO C&G Pace
(1) WISH YOU WELL sprinted home nicely last time for second behind a well-rated winner (yes, it is a trend of this analysis). If they go even slightly faster he should have a big chance. (3) MR THREE O FIVE also came home well while setting a fast time that will likely mean favoritism at post time. (5) BONAPARTE has shown well in every trip to the track, though he seems to have caught a couple of good ones tonight in the top two.
Race 6: Tompkins Memorial 3YO C&G Trot - $50K GTD Pick 4
(3) EXCALIBER BI simply didn't fire in the Stanley Dancer but it is nice to see he is right back in the box. The competition is much easier here and I'll take a swing that last week was just an "off" night. (1) LITTLE EXPENSIVE came up with a monster mile last week and that may place him on the Hambletonian track. Let's see if he can reproduce that mile. (6) SEVEN OVER stayed flat in his qualifier for the new barn and is eligible to show more.
Race 7: Non-winners $7,500 in last 4 or TM 84.5 (NW L2/2L4 84/84.81) or less
(7) REACTOR NOW A didn't seem too interested in taking a tuck and went parked the mile in his U.S. debut. He drops this week and perhaps we'll see some changes to make him more manageable. (6) HAMMERING HANK has been right there plenty of times but simply doesn't want to win. (5) COPPER TEEN has early speed and lured Gingras over the other Engblom horse.
Race 8: Tompkins Memorial 3YO C&G Trot - Pick 6
(5) CHALLENGER was good enough to try the Goodtimes and his return effort after a month off was decent. Perhaps he can take a step forward here. (9) ARI FERRARI J is clearly the horse to beat on paper and he isn't eligible to the Hambletonian so there is no "other" goal. (2) PURPLE LORD also turned in a good try following a break in action. Can he build on that mile?
Race 9: Non-winners $20,000 (NW L2 $22,251) in last 4 or 10 races life/TM 89.5 or less
(2) BILLY CLYDE wasn't quite as good as I expected last week but he wasn't awful either. It's interesting that we get a new driver this time around and maybe that will help revitalize him. (7) ALLYWAG HANOVER should in theory take care of business versus this group, but there are some fast horses in here and who knows if they'll be pushing him in an overnight when there are stakes down the road. (4) EARLY ACTION was handled conservatively again last week as Miller didn't want to rough him up too much in a quick opening quarter. At this point it is tough to say where he belongs in terms of condition.
Race 10: Tompkins Memorial 3YO Filly Trot - $50K GTD Pick 4
(6) ROYAL FILLY has always hinted at being a pretty good horse and perhaps the addition of Lasix will bring her to the next level. (2) FASHION ANNIE, (5) ANGELPEDIA and (3) RAILEE SOMETHING all switch to the big track a week before the Hambletonian Oaks elims assumingly to see whether the investment makes sense. Any of them could step up.
Race 11: Non-winners $10,000 (NW L2 $11,000) in last 4/TM 86.5 (NW L2/2L4 87/87.5) or less
(6) ITSALLABOUTFAITH N has two good qualifiers under his belt and a strong bankroll earned overseas. This barn has done very well with Down Under shippers. (9) MR IBIZA also makes his first appearance on these shores and he finished just a neck behind the top one in their latest qualifier. (2) BOBCAT BAY has been right there every week and his chances simply come down to the trip and pace scenario.
Race 12: Tompkins Memorial 3YO Filly Trot
(6) WALNER PAYTON is a steady performer that shows up every week and turns in a solid effort. Here she catches a soft group and should be able to shine. (5) BLONDE BOMBSHELL adds Lasix and perhaps that will be the key that unlocks her hidden ability. (4) KARABOUDJAN will be heading to the top and figures to sit a good trip.
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Race 13: Non-winners $3,000 in last 4/TM 77.5 or less/Opt. $12,500 Clm.
(7) NITE TIME DEAL gets a fair amount of class relief as she returns to the level of her last win. Expect big speed off the gate tonight. (3) TRANS MEANIE is certainly known for her gate speed and she's right there at the wire every week. (2) I'LL BE MYSELF comes to town with a nice win streak but still needs to prove herself on the big track.
Race 14: Non-winners $2,000 (NW L2 $2,285) in last 4
(7) SHORE OF HIMSELF and (1) AUSSIE HANOVER are both taking big steps down the class ladder and one of them figures to awaken. (3) ON DAYBOO raced better on the barn change last time. (2) STRAIGHT TALK moves to the inside of the gate and figures to be close to the lead here.