Meadowlands: Analysis for Saturday 7/18

CHAMPIONSHIP MEET STATS: 122-34-24-20 / $151.60 (-$92.40)
BEST BETS: 9-4-3-1 / $11.60 (-$6.40)
BEST BET: OUR MAJORDAN A (11th)
SPOT PLAY: DANCIN LOU (7th)

Race 1: Non-winners $20,000 in last 5 - $50K GTD Pick 5

(3) U S CAPTAIN exits the Graduate series where he came up short but certainly improved in his second start. I'm expecting more aggressive tactics dropping into an overnight. (1) THE DEVILS OWN N has been ultra-consistent here this year and he's clearly a threat. (4) CRIMSON AND CHROME has improved in each of his three starts since returning from the COVID break. It would be no shock if he stepped up tonight. (7) SOMEBADDUDE is not high on my list for the win, but he has big early speed and should find a way into the number if he isn't roughed up on his way to the top.

Race 2: Miss Versatility

(6) MANCHEGO gets away from Atlanta this week and unless one of these jumps up in a big way, she should be taking pictures on Saturday. (7) PLUNGE BLUE CHIP raced well but couldn't handle Atlanta after she sat on her cover last time. She's a capable horse that can give the top one some trouble if at 100%. (5) FELICITYSHAGWELL S has big early speed and should get into the exotics.

Race 3: Del Miller Memorial

(1) SORELLA went an even bigger mile last Saturday and seems to be blossoming with every start. She raced barefoot last time. Does she take a small step back with the shoes added this week? I'm leaning her direction but not sold if she is odds-on. (6) LOVE A GOOD STORY was spectacular last time at Vernon. The start before, while it looks like she was gaining on Hypnotic AM and flattened, the stretch chart call is wrong and it was more like a sustained willing finish. (8) HYPNOTIC AM comes to town with a perfect record in two starts this year and she's nearly flawless in her career; obvious threat. (10) RAMONA HILL raced ok in her first start of the year but seemed like she needed the start. Another outside post will make her job difficult; leaves?

Race 4: Stanley Dancer Memorial

(7) THIRD SHIFT is perfect in two starts this year with an average margin of victory just under five lengths and trotted a second faster than Hypnotic AM (race 3) last time. He's one of many contenders in a talented field. (6) BACK OF THE NECK was absolutely airborne in the stretch last week when winning the Reynolds. He will be on all of my tickets. (1) REAL COOL SAM makes his 2020 debut and has done nothing in his qualifiers to impress me. That said, the Jim Campbell barn has been heating up lately, with five wins in the last 11 starts and a 20-6-4-3 record over the last couple of weeks. (4) AMIGO VOLO got in the win column last time in the most uninspiring fashion possible. I'm not quite sure he is ready to trot the 1:51 or less needed to win.

Race 5: Stanley Dancer Memorial

(4) READY FOR MONI qualified well twice, though it is worth noting that while he came away second last time he wasn't on the gate at the start. There is a lot of talent in this son of Ready Cash and most horses from this barn have fired fresh. (1) BEADS added a hood and Jimmy Takter on July 3 and since then this guy has turned into a new horse. If he's turned a corner and seeing (7) EL IDEAL come at him heading into the first turn doesn't freak him out, he may just put up a 1:50 and change winning mile. The latter took some air in his first start of the year and held very well; capable. (2) GANGSTER HANOVER pulled into a strange spot off the final turn in his last qualifier and trotted home willingly with the top pick; price play.

Race 6: Mistletoe Shalee - $100K GTD Pick 4

(6) ROCKNIFICENT has come back strong and her performance last week in PASS action was terrific. She has the early speed to work out a trip and should offer fair value. (1) JK FIRST LADY came up a bit short in her only start this year but followed that up with a fast qualifier. She has a big shot but I worry about her odds being lower than warranted. (9) LYONS SENTINEL came up short in her 2020 debut but should improve off that mile; post hurts. (8) REFLECT WITH ME absolutely motored home to win her lone start this year while out-finishing the top selection. I'm concerned she'll have to pass most of the field and that could require a 25 and change final quarter.

Race 7: William Haughton Memorial

(6) DANCIN LOU races his eyeballs out every week. He was used very hard to make the front just before a 52 3/5 half last week, got pushed every step after clearing the front and found the guts to lose by less than three lengths. All he needs is a reasonable trip to have a big shot at victory. (5) BACKSTREET SHADOW left, gained ground uncovered in a 26 4/5 third quarter and just missed in a strong mile despite reportedly scoping sick after the race. He's probably the horse to beat. (7) AMERICAN HISTORY didn’t do anything spectacular but took a huge step in the right direction last week. The big money is on the line now. Do we see early speed? (1) THIS IS THE PLAN lost all chance when he was way behind the gate at the start last time. I'm not ready to give up on him yet. (4) CENTURY FARROH was shuffled and driven into no man's land in the Graduate final. The performance was better than it looks on paper.

Race 8: Hambletonian Maturity - Pick 6

(13) GIMPANZEE faces some new threats this week from some very talented horses, but he remains the King of the track until knocked off his throne. While not ideal, I don't see post 13 as a major issue since the horse in front of him (Kings County) is likely to be leaving to avoid getting away mid-pack or worse. (1) FORBIDDEN TRADE took it to older foes with a very impressive performance last week. He is the horse I fear most. (7) REIGN OF HONOR has big early speed and the extra eighth-of-a-mile run into the first turn should provide ample opportunity for him to get position. Improving 4-year-old should be used in the exotics. (5) WHEN DOVESCRY comes off a quartet of qualifiers as she makes her first start for new trainer Brett Pelling. All systems appear to be go, but she can't race on Lasix here and this is her first start; leaning against.

Race 9: Meadowlands Pace Final - Pick 5

There are probably seven horses that on paper can win the Pace Final, but three of them (9) PAPI ROB HANOVER, (5) TALL DARK STRANGER and (4) ALLYWAG HANOVER appear to be a step faster and a bit sharper right now. I lean towards 'Papi' because he should provide the best value of the trio. He hasn't truly been put in play after two starts from post 10 and doesn't get any favors with another outside draw here, but expect to see David Miller leave the gate this week. Tall Dark Stranger is the horse to beat but hasn't separated himself enough from the others to accept odds of around 4-5 at post time. Allywag Hanover has looked absolutely spectacular in every start this year but remains somewhat unproven against the best in the sport and I fear his price will linger in the 2-1 to 5-2 range. That is no bueno. (3) CAPTAIN BARBOSSA gets my top call as a potential upsetter. If a horse is going to 'surprise' it will occur because the pace was sizzling and this 'Captain' should be in prime position from the inside post to capitalize.

Race 10: Dorothy Haughton Memorial - Pick 4

I have changed my mind a number of time between the top three to follow and I'll be using all of them if I play the late Pick 4. (4) KISSIN IN THE SAND seems to have matured as a 5YO and should be even tighter in her second start after a month on the bench. She might be good enough to beat the Queen (2) SHARTIN N, who couldn't have looked any better in her last win and may offer a bit of value coming off a minor foot issue. (7) SOHO BURNING LOVE A best the top pick last time and only seems to be getting better.

Race 11: William Haughton Memorial Consolation - $65,089 Mandatory Payout Hi-5

(4) OUR MAJORDAN A had an issue when the gate sprung but David Miller knows his quirks now. We should see how fast he is tonight and hopefully the price will be much higher than last time. (6) SINTRA was stuck behind foes in the Open last week and lost his chance to shine. (3) SAN DOMINO A appeared to be loaded with pace while stuck behind a wall of horses in the stretch. The main questions is whether he is this good. (11) GEEZ JOE was also full of pace in the stretch last time and simply had too far to come. What kind of trip will he get from the second tier?

Race 12: Non-winners $14,000 in last 5 or 8 races life

(6) ANGERS BAYAMA has been holding his own in the Graduate series and should appreciate the switch to Overnight company. (1) CLOSING STATEMENT recovered from a break two back to race well versus two Meadowlands Pace horses last time. (8) SHAMWOW also drops out of the Graduate and has a chance to perk up. (2) PEACE OUT POSSE comes down from Woodbine with some credentials.

Race 13: Non-winners $10,000 in last 5/TM Rating 86 or less

(9) HOT DEUCE got away slow and had no chance versus a tougher group than he faces tonight. I'll roll the dice and hope Bongiorno leaves the gate. (1) FRANCO TOTEM N should have won last week; horse to beat again. (2) PASSA-GRILLE BEACH and (3) THATSWHATISAID N have both been consistent in this class and either could step up.