Meadowlands: Analysis for Saturday 7/17

CHAMPIONSHIP MEET STATS: 267-87-55-46 / $485.60 (-$48.40)

BEST BETS: 20-7-7-1 / $26.40 (-13.60)

SPOT PLAYS: 20-6-5-2 / $41.40 (+$1.40)

BEST BET: HOT MESS EXPRESS (4th)

SPOT PLAY: COVERED BRIDGE (13th)

$125K GTD Pick 4 (Race 6): 2,6,11 / 4,6,8,10 / 3,4 / 1,7,10 = $36

$75K GTD Pick 4 (Race 10): 3,4,5,7,8 / 2,3,7 / 5 / 4 = $6

Race 1: $142,000 Del Miller Memorial - Pick 5

(2) DONNA SOPRANO put in a big effort on July 3 considering she had missed four weeks of action. Luc Blais has her getting faster with every start and perhaps she'll be able to pop a big mile here as the second choice behind (5) BELTASSIMA. The latter couldn't have looked much better winning last weekend and is impossible to toss off your Pick 5 tickets. (4) ALTAR finally stayed trotting in her latest qualifier, so maybe they figured something out. There is plenty of talent inside if she can behave.

[DRF HARNESS: Get Harness Eye PPs for this card]

Race 2: $135,500 Stanley Dancer Memorial

(1) DANCINGINTHEDARK M was super in the slop last Saturday and even though I believe he could be raced more conservatively here, the short field makes him a no-brainer. (4) BROOKVIEW BOLT has turned it on in recent weeks at Hoosier. Whether he is this good is unknown, but I like seeing those 26 quarters on her lines. (5) TAKE ALL COMERS is certainly going to be the second choice and trainer Jim Campbell has been getting him tighter each start.

[DRF BETS: Wager on tonight's Meadowlands card at DRF Bets.com!]

Race 3: $139,500 Del Miller Memorial

(2) ITERATION turned in a poor effort at Tioga last time, but I'll use that as a reason to play her tonight since the price will be much higher. Gimpanzee's baby sister has done well on big tracks in the past and perhaps the change of scenario will do her good. (6) YOU ATO DREAM was done in by a bad draw last weekend. How good is this Jeff Gregory trainee? We'll find out more tonight. (3) DARLENE HANOVER & (4) LADY CHAOS are the clear favorites in the field but they are a combined 2-for-9 on the year and hardly locks. (1) MAZZARATI adds Lasix.

Race 4: $174,400 Mistletoe Shalee - Pick 6

(5) HOT MESS EXPRESS carries an undefeated record in 2021 back to The Meadowlands where she won her first start of the year on May 15. Everything we've seen from this daughter of Panther Hanover says she's special. (4) GRACE HILL has picked up her game on the big track to finish second behind arguably the two best 3-year-old pacing fillies in the sport. (6) FIRE START HANOVER certainly has talent but seems unlikely to leave and might need some pace help. (1) BLUE DIAMOND EYES rarely misses the board but also hasn't won yet this year. (2) CONTINUALOU adds Lasix and might be worth a look at a big price.

Race 5: $40,000 Miss Versatility

Sometimes when everyone zigs you have to zag. It seems obvious that (5) ATLANTA is going to be the favorite here and rightfully so as she has looked spectacular in two starts. While an initial look at the race should have her following live cover behind (3) MANCHEGO, it is just as clear to me that driver Dexter Dunn will realize that and look to switch up tactics. We haven't seen Manchego on the lead in some time and this looks like the right week for a brush and crush attempt at a rare decent price, perhaps as high as 2-1; top billing. (8) WESLYNN QUEST raced very well in her first start for this barn and despite the bad post, looks playable underneath at double-digit odds. (1) WHEN DOVESCRY can't possibly get away with soft fractions on the lead this week, can she? She's a player but seems to be a step or two behind the top pair.

Race 6: $178,500 Dorothy Haughton Memorial - $125K GTD Pick 4

It may be time to start taking (2) GIA'S SURREAL seriously. Nik Drennan trainee turned in a monster performance in the Artiscape and let's face it, there really are no killers in this division right now. (6) JK FIRST LADY has sat in and closed well with no shot in her last two starts. I do believe she has a shot if Dunn puts her in play. (10) LYONS SENTINEL is probably the division leader after her Artiscape win, but do you really want her as the potential favorite from post 10? (11) WARRAWEE UBEAUT is an interesting option here. She's making her second start back as a 5-year-old after a ho-hum campaign in 2020. Will she return to form with that transitional year behind her? (9) ROCKNIFICENT was used last time but still disappointed to some extent. She's a player but I'd want 6-1 or better to even consider her.

Race 7: $265,400 William Haughton Memorial - Survivor 7

I’m not a big fan of (6) ALLYWAG HANOVER, but boy does this look like a race that will fall into his lap on paper. There is plenty of early speed to his inside and outside to set up a horse from second- or third-over and he has the perfect post to work out that trip just before selling in the Mixed Sale on Sunday. (4) BACKSTREET SHADOW was victimized by Stars Align A when he refused to yield in the Roll With Joe. The path to the front will be easier here and it is just a matter of how many horses challenge him early and whether he can shake free in the lane. (8) RUTHLESS HANOVER was a victim of circumstance in the Graduate final. He is this good but I have some trip concerns whether he leaves or comes from behind. (10) CATCH THE FIRE has come back from breeding season breathing fire. That 1:47 3/5 win at Scioto jumps off the page. Will he fire hard off the gate here?

Race 8: $400,000 E.T. Gerry Jr. Hambletonian Maturity

(4) RAMONA HILL looked fine in her comeback until the break in the Joie De Vie. That was followed by hobbles being added, which seems like a great idea considering she never had the smoothest gait. She was never asked and finished under a death grip approaching the wire in her qualifier. I'd love to see her fire out like she did in the Del Miller last year but either way, I'm on board. (3) HYPNOTIC AM tries her heart out every time and never puts in a bad effort. If I was Brian Sears the gas would be pressed from the start because otherwise she could be buried in this big field. Sooner or later she'll get a nice clean trip with clearance. (10) BEADS might have been my top pick from post 10 given the extra eighth-of-a-mile run-up at the start for this race, but he has to come off Lasix do to the conditions of the race and rarely does that angle produce a winner. (12) READY FOR MONI hasn't finished worse than second yet in 2021. The second tier is my only concern.

Race 9: $700,000 Meadowlands Pace - Pick 5

If there ever was a race that was impossible to trip-handicap it is the 2021 Meadowlands Pace. Almost every horse can win and almost every horse can show early speed. Ultimately you have to look for value and for that I go back to the horses I thought were the best coming into the eliminations. (10) AMERICAN COURAGE came home in 25 1/5 in his elimination. How do you find fault with that? Post 10 isn't ideal, but the price will be right and at least we know he'll be emptying the tank here because he doesn't have another race until August 7. (7) ONE EIGHT HUNDRED will lose plenty of supporters after setting slow fractions as the 2-5 favorite and coming up well short in the stretch. If there ever was a night when we should forgive a bad performance it is Pace elim night when half the track was soup due to a freak storm. Don't shy away off one race! (1) PERFECT STING won't provide much value and could very well go off the favorite but is impossible to ignore. Unless he has the worst trip ever, he'll be in the number somewhere. (9) CHARLIE MAY put in a strong mile in his elimination, though perhaps some people will say he shouldn't have been caught. Rumor is a bridle change is coming. He's very sharp!

Race 10: $265,400 William Haughton Memorial - $75K GTD Pick 4

(7) THIS IS THE PLAN got right back on track in the Roll With Joe and is the one horse that I feel confident about from on or off the pace. My guess is he is used hard to the front but gets just enough of a breather in the third quarter to win. (4) CATTLEWASH is the horse to beat after his 1:47 1/5 win last week. That said, the trip worked out nicely for him in the Graduate. (3) BLLACK HOLE posted his career best of 1:48 here last year and I'm certain his connections didn't ship here from Ohio to see the scenery. (5) TATTOO ARTIST has big early speed and form.

Race 11: $138,000 Stanley Dancer Memorial

This race could easily be a Hambletonian elimination as four of the top 10 (maybe top 5) contenders are entered. (2) CAPTAIN COREY was an easy winner in his qualifier and more than any other horse in the field likely needs a big mile to gear up for the Hambletonian eliminations. Yannick Gingras in the bike is a nice plus, but it also likely means a shorter price. (3) VENERATE grinded out a gutsy win last week and I expect another first-over grind coming here. If he can beat these that way as the favorite, so be it. (7) SONOFAMISTERY is as fast as any of these and will (in theory) find a way to trot through the wire one of these days.

Race 12: Non-winners $22,500 (NW L3 $24,750) in last 5 or 11 races life

(5) AMERICAN HISTORY drops just one class but the quality of competition takes a nosedive. There are no excuses for him in here. (9) SHOEEBEE DOO A has been rolling along in fine form for some time and might offer some value from the outside post. (2) DE LOS CIELOS DEO steps way up while in fine form. The class doesn't matter for him when he feels like playing.

[DRF BETS: Wager on tonight's Meadowlands card at DRF Bets.com!]

Race 13: Non-winners $12,500 (NW L3 $13,750) in last 5

(4) COVERED BRIDGE catches a rather soft NW12500 field and should be looking to power down the road. (5) DOJEA GIZMO comes to town with the Todd Luther stakes horses after facing some good company in Ohio; seems like a fit. (1) ANA MALAK N has big early speed and this field seems to lack that quality for the most part.

Race 14: Winners 5-7 life/NW5 (NW L3 6) draw inside

(8) FORTIFY was done in by fast fractions at Philly last time and he reconnects with Tetrick now. Let's take a shot here in a wide-open finale. (4) BILLY CLYDE did all the work in a 1:47 4/5 mile only to come up a nose shy; big chance. (6) LOU’S PEARLMAN bested the former last time up the cones. Can he get another clean trip? (3) BETTER TAKE IT finishes well week after week. Maybe Dexter Dunn can get that extra bit out of him.