Meadowlands: Analysis for Saturday 7/16
CHAMPIONSHIP MEET STATS: 250-78-58-33 / $445.20 (-$54.80)
BEST BETS: 20-12-2-2 / $44.60 (+4.60)
SPOT PLAYS: 19-4-6-1 / $14.60 (-$23.40)
BEST BET: BEACH GLASS (12th)
SPOT PLAY: REBUFF (4th)
Race 1: Non-winners $14,251 in last 5 or 8 races life/TM 89.01 or less - Pick 5
(5) BILLY CLYDE gets to milk this class one more week courtesy of the AE condition. I was sure he would get passed at the head of the lane last week but he dug in gamely and can do so again. (2) BACKSTREET SHADOW gets a touch of class relief here but he clearly lacks confidence right now. (7) WES DELIGHT couldn't touch the top pick last Saturday but is still working his way into shape; ready now?
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Race 2: $100,000 Del Miller Memorial
This field is loaded with talent and although $100,000 is on the line, make no mistake that the 5x prize in the Hambletonian Oaks on August 6 is what many of the connections are thinking about. (4) FASHION SCHOONER is the best filly in the group in my mind right now and while in most cases I would think she was sure to get a conservative steer, with #2 and #3 inside her highly unlikely to show early speed and this being only her second start since May 27, stretching her out a bit seems like the most logical decision. (6) MANON is perfect in five starts and very capable of heading to the front and never looking back, though Tetrick did jump ship for #4. (1) RAISED BY LINDY dead-heated with #6 last time and will be in play. (2) DELILAH HANOVER raced very well in the Zweig when beaten by a pocket-sitter who found room. She's capable but needs some pace help she might not get.
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Race 3: $100,000 Del Miller Memorial - Survivor 7
(7) JOVIALITY S has been the best 3-year-old trotter this year but I can't help but think she may have been a bit sharper a month ago than when she was at Yonkers in her last two starts. That said, she lands in the easier division and should be helped by getting two weeks off after starting three consecutive weeks. (6) DATE NIGHT finally got to the races on July 1 after a string of qualifiers and raced well while on the rim most of the mile. She has the speed to step up if ready. (3) VENERABLE was on the comeback trail herself and seems to have turned the corner; main danger to the top pick but at shorter odds than I would like.
Race 4: $125,000 Stanley Dancer Memorial
(2) REBUFF is the favorite to win the Hambletonian in my book and that he was able to blow away the Reynolds field in his first start of the year was certainly amazing. There is no reason to get off this train. (1) TEMPORAL HANOVER has done almost nothing wrong in four starts this year; clear threat. (5) FAST AS THE WIND was used early and paid the price at Vernon. I see more conservative tactics coming here and if the trip works out he has a shot.
Race 5: Non-winners $20,000 (NW L2 $22K) in last 5 or 10 races (NW L3 11) life/TM 92.70 - $75K GTD Pick 4
(6) ROCKIN ON VENUS was super in his Cullipher barn debut and Tetrick chose here over a DiDomenico horse. Four-year-old should be put in play early and have a big shot at a repeat. (1) RUTHLESS HANOVER is an obvious contender dropping out of stakes action but one that will be way overbet because of the driver change. (9) BETTORS DONTTELL also exits stakes action and it wouldn't be a shock to see Gingras gun him to the top, or at least try. (4) BLLACK HOLE took a step forward in his third start back. This guy is more than capable of popping off a big mile.
Race 6: $125,000 Stanley Dancer Memorial
This looks like a tricky race where any of these horses could potentially step up in their final prep before the Hambletonian. After jumping off stride in the Zweig (8) BRANDED BY LINDY probably needs to air it out a bit here to prepare for the big dance and that could have him in the driver's seat to win at a fair price. (4) B A SUPERHERO rolled impressive in the Reynolds and appears like the one to beat now. (1) KING OF THE NORTH remains a question mark in 2022 but what he does have is a desire to race as evidenced by his coming back in the stretch to just miss at Vernon last time.
Race 7: $150,000 Mistletoe Shalee - Pick 6
(5) BOUDOIR HANOVER looks like she barely held on in the Nadia Lobell but she could've gone around the track again and still won. Captaintreacherous filly has always displayed talent and this post gives McCarthy the option to set the pace or potential follow heavy favorite (4) TREACHEROUS DRAGON. The latter is perfect on the year and won't go down without a fight. (1) LYONS SERENITY has the ability to win but still has some questions to answer. At 8-1 or higher she's worth a look.
Race 8: $40,000 Miss Versatility
(2) WHEN DOVESCRY and (5) ATLANTA lay over this field in terms of class and pure speed. Let's give the edge to the former as I expect she'll be put in play earlier this week, though there is plenty of outside speed to set up Atlanta from behind. (3) NEXT LEVEL STUFF went too fast last time and weakened as expected. With the right trip she can be a factor in the exotics.
Race 9: $175,000 Dorothy Haughton Memorial - $125K GTD Pick 4
There is no doubt that (1) TEST OF FAITH is the best older pacing mare in the country and this post gives her the ability to allow the outside speed to settle before making an early brush to command. (6) RACINE BELL showed just how good she is in the Perfect Sting, but now the price gets lower and the level of respect increases. She'll have to earn it if she is to beat the top one this time. (10) MIKALA had a brutal trip last time when the top pick hung her to dry. She seems to be able to go with this crew and could offer some value from the bad post.
Race 10: $500,000 William Haughton Memorial
(7) BULLDOG HANOVER is setting history every time he steps on the track and at this point it is difficult to make a case that any of these horses can beat him. (9) ROCKYROAD HANOVER has turned into a killer with Lasix added and is simply unfortunate to have to face the top pick on a somewhat weekly basis. While his style has been to lay back early of late, you have to think with $500,000 on the line McCarthy will switch things up and find early position. (4) TATTOO ARTIST is ok on the smaller tracks but tends to stretch out his speed nicely on the bigger surfaces. He'll be firing away and sitting in striking position here. (3) THIS IS THE PLAN picked up some confidence at Pocono and if the pace is crazy perhaps he can get a nice check.
Race 11: $432,000 E.T. Gerry Jr. Hambletonian Maturity
While this race is loaded with outside early speed, the longer run into the first turn means they'll have ample opportunity to secure position before potentially backing down the second quarter. (9) CUATRO DE JULIO and (8) RATTLE MY CAGE should both be gunning out and in my eyes will line up a potential speed number that could very well take this field all the way. The former was raced very conservatively last time but will certainly be changing tactics this week. He gets the top call over the red-hot Rattle My Cage simply due to a likely much better price. (2) AHUNDREDDOLLARBILL has been known to step up in big spots in the past and if the pace ends up being crazy, he projects to line up nicely behind a very live mare in (11) BELLA BELLINI, who will have to figure out the second tier after potentially getting buried by outside speed and a first-over trip.
Race 12: $600,000 Meadowlands Pace
(6) BEACH GLASS made two moves through a 25 2/5 opening quarter while demolishing his competition. Unless one of these is going to stand up in a BIG way, he doesn't appear to have much competition and might be a value play at 4-5. (7) FOUREVER BOY will get little respect at the windows but no horse - including the top pick - was moving faster in the final sixteenth of their elimination than this guy. Trainer Tim Twaddle mentioned having his blood "right" now and I'm a believer after watching his most recent race. (3) NIGHT HAWK should've left hard last week at 1-5 and beaten that field but instead was raced conservatively and will be overbet off a "no-chance" line where he just missed. The fact that he's been raced conservatively the last two starts perhaps shows a lack of confidence in the horse by Miller. He could win but I'd rather have 3-5 on the top pick than 5-2 on him. (5) EARLY ACTION finally took a step in the right direction last week and while he wasn't exactly loaded with late pace, that he passed horses says the son of Huntsville may finally be ready to live up to the talent he displayed as a 2-year-old.
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Race 13: Non-winners $7,500 (NW L3 $8,250) in last 5/TM 83 (NW 2L3or3/5 83.5/84) or less
(3) HAIL CHRISTIAN N showed a hint of early speed on the class drop to this level last time and raced well to be second by a horse that set a lifetime mark. He seems worth following but I wouldn't take a short price. (6) AS ALWAYS also raced well last time and gets to take a step down the class ladder this week. Will he find early speed? (9) BIG CHIC MAGNET faces a better field and draws poorly but is certainly capable of firing out if Bongiorno elects to go that route. Though they could wait for a better spot, too, so demand value.
Race 14: TrackMaster 81.25 (NW L3/2L5 81.5/82) or less
(5) BELL FAMILY has found himself over the last few weeks and anything close to those efforts will result in a win. (2) OUR MAJORDAN A comes to town with great form and plenty of back class. (7) ROCKABILLY CHARM finally moves in a couple of spots on the gate and perhaps can get in play without a brutal trip. (4) CLIFFHANGER is worth a look on the trainer and driver change angles.