Meadowlands: Analysis for Saturday 7/15

CHAMPIONSHIP MEET STATS: 245-81-46-29 / $413.90 (-$76.10)

BEST BETS: 18-11-2-0 / $34.90 (-1.10)

SPOT PLAYS: 18-4-6-0 / $40.80 (+$4.80)

BEST BET: EARLY ACTION (1^st)

SPOT PLAY: MAX CONTRACT (9^th)

Race 1: Non-winners $10,000 in last 4/TM 86.6 or less - Pick 5

(10) EARLY ACTION only drops one class on paper but this is a much bigger plunge than it seems with this race coming up somewhat soft for the condition. Former 2-year-old star has no excuses for failure tonight, even from post 10. (4) ROCKIN ON VENUS caught some sharper horses in his last try here and this barn is going much better now, with two wins and three seconds in five starts since June 16. (1) WHATS STANLEY GOT A has the early speed to stick close and get a piece.

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Race 2: $20,000-$30,000 Claiming

(10) TAM MAJOR A drops back in for a claiming price and the lowest one he has seen since April when he was dominating. Expect early speed tonight. (8) GOOD ROCKIN has been a steady player in this class and is another likely on the move early. (9) BOILER MAKER was able to catch #8 last time when he was used hard vying for the lead. It may be tougher to rally like that with some weaker foes signed on to the inside.

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Race 3: $105,250 Del Miller Memorial - Survivor 7

(7) INSTAGRAM MODEL prepped nicely for this with a strong stretch finish while facing older foes. While this isn't her main goal (the Hambletonian Oaks is in three weeks), the short field and fair amount of early speed signed on should set her up for success. (6) SECERET VOLO is clearly fast off the gate and seems to have a big engine that allows her to trot all day. I expect she'll be let out a notch here to see if the Oaks makes sense. (5) QUICK STOP stepped up last time and could be a player here with another move forward. (1) PURE HOPE S finished up well after missing 31 days; more now?

Race 4: $105,250 Del Miller Memorial - $50K GTD Pick 4

(4) BOND uses her pacer-like speed off the gate each week to take the lead and coasts to an easy win. While she may have some company early this time, ultimately she'll be in front and take care of business. (7) HEAVEN HANOVER has certainly improved as a 3-year-old and now gets a true test. I think she may leave out of there to test Bond early and see where she sits in the division. (2) MAMBACITA rolled through Kentucky without much issue. The waters are deeper now and we'll see tonight if she is up to it.

Race 5: Non-winners $12,500 in last 4 or 7 (NW L3 8) races life/TM 86 (NW L2/2L4/4YO 86.5/87/87.65) or less

(3) SWEET TREASURE is back in an overnight where she should be much more comfortable. Switch to the more patient Zeron could be a good one in a race with plenty of early speed. (1) DRESDEN moves to the inside of the gate and will have a much better opportunity to win. (9) SHESASHARPSHOOTER has been very sharp and figures to be the last leaver to the top. If the path to get there isn't as difficult as I expect, she's very capable of winning. (4) GOO GOO WON is another horse in fine form that is a good trip away from possible victory.

Race 6: $410,250 Hambletonian Maturity - Pick 6

(3) JIGGY JOG S has dominated this group in all four of her starts and unless one of them takes a giant step forward they'll be chasing her again. (1) COOL PAPA BELL made some positive strides in his last start and conceivably won't mind the added distance. That said, you really should demand 10-1 or higher if you take a shot on the win end. (9) M-M'S DREAM & (7) LOOKS LIKE MONI both look like viable options on paper with good early speed to utilize the long early run to the first turn in this added distance race, BUT they are racing without Lasix tonight and who knows how that will affect them, especially late in the mile.

Race 7: Non-winners $20,000 in last 4 or 10 (NW L3 11) races or $100K life/TM 92 or less/Opt. $75,000 Clm.

(3) BILLY CLYDE is coming off consecutive break but did mind his manners in the qualifier and there is no shame to losing to Bythemissal and It's My Show. We may just get a decent price here on the fastest horse in the field. (2) ENERGETIC HANOVER should enjoy the drop out of stakes company but got a bit unlucky in terms of the level of competition. (5) LOU'S PEARLMAN comes off a sharp score. He hasn't been able to get back to his successful stakes days yet.

Race 8: $169,000 Mistletoe Shalee - $100K All-Stakes Pick 4

(4) CULTURED is a filly I've been waiting to select in the right spot and this may finally be it. That 25 1/5 final quarter in her qualifier tells you she's ready and there seems to be ample early speed to set up her vicious late kick. She should be a live horse here at maybe 15-1 and seems worth a roll of the dice. (5) SYLVIA HANOVER is undoubtedly the horse to beat and if I could secure 2-1 I'd take it every day of the week. That said, even money seems more likely and you have to swallow that despite her having missed four weeks and making her first long ship south of the border. (6) BEACH COWBOY couldn't handle Sylvia and stopped badly in the Fan Hanover, but Lasix seems to have cured her and she's another one that will offer good value. (2) TWIN B JOE FRESH races well every week and is obviously in the picture here with any decent trip. (11) STRONG POISON sat off a fast pace and exploded in her first try with Lasix; dangerous as well.

Race 9: $159,000 Dorothy Haughton Memorial

(5) MAX CONTRACT was perhaps a bit flat in the Perfect Sting but really didn't have a big chance of winning from post 10 and racing fourth-over. Team Miller adds Lasix here and the 4-year-old is perfectly drawn mid-pack with the tactical ability to race from on or off the pace. (2) GRACE HILL was used to the front and simply came up second best to (1) SILVER LABEL last time out. Both are obviously huge threats to win here at lower odds. (10) TEST OF FAITH was in a tough spot from the outside in the Perfect Sting as she began her year and things get worse here from post 10. While she came home in 25 2/5 in that race, I thought she flattened out slightly in the final steps. Still, she deserves respect and consideration if the price lands at 8-1 or higher.

Race 10: $138,500 Stanley Dancer Memorial

(2) AIR POWER just seems to be a bit more advanced than this group right now and getting Dunn in the bike tonight is only going to improve his chances and lower his odds. (7) OH WELL is every bit as fast as or faster than all of these but just doesn't seem to want to win. (5) GAINES HANOVER races well every week and this is clearly a big test for him. He may just be up to it.

Race 11: $668,000 Meadowlands Pace Final - Pick 4

I spent more time analyzing, interviewing and writing about this race than I slept last night. Even with all that, the only thing I feel confident about is that (5) CONFEDERATE is a bad selection. Is he the fastest horse in the race right now? Probably. Is he worth 4-5 at post time? No, because I don't believe he'll win unless things go reasonably well for him. Is he the deserving favorite and horse to beat? Yes. All of that left me with two potential horses to consider and ultimately I landed on (3) CHRISTCHURCH for a number of reasons. This race should go through him, meaning he'll be on the lead at some point down the backstretch. Simply put, this race is won on the lead as seven of the last 15 winners set the pace. He's proven he can take some heat and battle on the lead, so unless he has to go 52 to the half again, new driver Yannick Gingras will be in the driver's seat. (2) VOUKEFALAS wasn't quite right in the Pace elims and came up second best but if he's back to his old self, he's very much capable of winning this race. My only hesitation is that he may end up first-over, but at least he'll be fair value. (5) CONFEDERATE gets the call third for all the reasons above. I respect his chances but can't bet him. (7) EL REY looked like a new horse last time after trainer Tony Alagna made a number of changes. If the pace is crazy fast he'll be flying late.

Race 12: $444,000 William Haughton Memorial

(4) ALLYWAG HANOVER is admittedly a "leap of faith" play given what we've seen from him thus far this year, but we can also "excuse away" those performances as well. With him likely going off third or fourth choice and finally drawing a good post in one of the richer races for the division, this seems like the time to lean his way and expect he'll be ready to fire a big shot. (3) ABUCKABETT HANOVER went a giant mile to be second in the Brower and for my money is the horse to beat. (2) RUTHLESS HANOVER already has two sub 1:47 miles on his card this year and you know he'll be leaving hard. (7) BYTHEMISSAL comes off a stellar qualifier with a 24 4/5 kicker, but he's probably a race away from being able to go 1:46 and change.

Race 13: $138,500 Stanley Dancer Memorial

(6) CELEBRITY BAMBINO really impressed me in the Reynolds last time and looked like a different horse as he flashed speed at both ends of the mile. I'm inclined to lean his way unless too much money comes down on him. (4) TACTICAL APPROACH is a capable horse that perhaps didn't have his best day last time. (5) ONCE IN A LIFETIME has done nothing wrong in 2023 but at this point we really don't know how good he is against the top tier. We'll find out more here.

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Race 14: $10,000-$15,000 Claiming Handicap

(4) HOWTOTRAINURDRAGON picks up a catch-driver and lands in a good post this week. (10) ITS SHOWTIME moves to a Hall of Fame driver as the trainer gets out of the bike; big shot. (8) BORN UNORDINARY moves into the Estrada barn and any horse on that move is worth a look. (2) SNOOPY SNOOP has been getting tough trips; moves inside.