Meadowlands: Analysis for Saturday 7/13

MEET STATS: 251-90-50-31 / $511.60 (+$9.60)

BEST BETS: 18-13-1-2 / $49.60 (+$13.60)

SPOT PLAYS: 18-5-4-2 / $40.60 (+$4.60)

BEST BET: BUY A ROUND (13^th)

SPOT PLAY: PASS LINE (5^th)

Race 1: 3-year-old Open Pace – Pick 5

Many of these are the also-rans from the Meadowlands Pace and of that group only (7) MCCRUNCH showed anything of note. He was used hard moving to the front and found lacking late in the mile after a 53 1/5 half. He gets the edge here but many of these seem capable given the right setup. (4) RUSH IN took a month off but didn’t exactly bring his ‘A’ game. Now he’s back with Lasix and perhaps that will get him back to the horse we say in May. (3) REMEMBER THE ALAMO had no chance in the Pace elims from post nine. We saw in the NA Cup consolation he can take air and step up; using in Pick 5.

[DRF HARNESS: Get Harness Eye PPs for this card]

Race 2: Non-winners 2 (NW L2 or 3YO 3) races life

None of these really jump off the page for me. I did think (3) SKYDIVER took a nice step forward last time when he left the gate and finished up his mile nicely despite getting outfinished. He should make an easy lead here and sit close. (9) DEVASTATE has already disappointed me a couple of times. Let’s give him one final chance on the notion that maybe he was a bit short after missing a month prior to the start at Vernon. (10) BELLA’S MUSCLEHILL is clearly the one to beat as he goes for his third straight win in this class. That said, I doubt whether he’ll leave hard from the outside post, especially since #9 is likely to go inside of him. He’ll also be a short price and let’s face it, bigger races are coming up soon.

Race 3: Miss Versatility Mare Trot - Survivor 7

(2) TACTICAL MOUNDS displayed her ability to step up two starts back in the Miss Versatility and she seems likely to be slightly better in terms of value than the other logical win candidate (1) M-M’S DREAM, who hasn’t finished worse than second this year. One of the two should be taking pictures. (5) NELSONBRITEEAGLE NO was better in her second U.S. start and continued improvement is certainly possible.

Race 4: $125K Del Miller Memorial - $50K GTD Pick 4

This is a tricky race as we try to conclude whether two of the top fillies from last year are ready for a top mile and if they’ve improved. I’ll take the safe route with (3) CHAPARMBRO, who has put in two nice second-place finishes with catch-drivers this year. Her latest was a 1:51 mile behind a male foe. (6) FRENCH CHAMPAGNE looked very good winning the NJSS final in late May and the return qualifier was sharp for a barn the excels with horses returning from layoffs. Tetrick opted off for #9 but that was no surprise. (8) WARRAWEE MICHELLE and (9) SOIREE HANOVER are the big question marks for me. Will either try firing out? Have they improved over the winter? I’ll be watching the warm-ups and score-down for clues.

Race 5: $100K Jerry Silverman Memorial

(2) PASS LINE raced with Lasix for the first time in the Nadia Lobell last weekend at Scioto and the race was a clear turning point in my mind. She took a bit of a shuffle and closed good ground in the stretch on a foe that got the jump on her. Zeron opted for his main client Linda Toscano, but Dunn is a nice replacement. (1) LYONS LEGEND comes out of the same race and owns a very deceptive line as she left hard but had to abort and take back to last. This Stay Hungry-sired filly may be better than some people think. (8) CAVIART BELLE has disappointed a bit since finishing second in the Fan Hanover and the outside post doesn’t help; mixed feelings. (3) SARASOTA HANOVER seems to have righted the ship but needs to show a big mile for me to truly believe in her again.

Race 6: $135K Stanley Dancer Memorial - Pick 6

(8) KARL gets his first true test of 2024 against this field. There is no reason to believe he’ll come up short and I fully expect we’ll see at least a 1:50 mile in his final prep for the Hambletonian. (6) MARS HILL looks to be firmly back on track after some May breaking issues. His recent qualifiers was spectacular as he won easily one just one flick of the whip. (3) DAME GOOD TIME has proven speed and there is no doubt he can stay with the best in the division, including Karl. Whether he can beat him is another story. (4) AMAZING CATCH has gotten better with every start this year.

Race 7: $140K Dorothy Haughton Memorial

Sometimes you have to bet on the come if you want a reasonable price and that is what I’m doing here with (1) GRACE HILL. She has clearly regained her form in recent weeks and now she steps up to face the best in the country. You have to expect she’ll either gun off the gate or make an early brush and it will be on (2) TWIN B JOE FRESH to catch her if she can. The latter has done everything right over her last four starts and deserves to be the clear favorite. (3) SYLVIA HANOVER should’ve won the Perfect Sting as that race set up perfectly for her. Does she have a chance to upset here? Yes.

Race 8: $135K Stanley Dancer Memorial - $100K GTD Pick 4

(6) SITUATIONSHIP overcame a break behind the gate to be a very good second in the Yonkers Trot. While this field is worlds better, I think he’s a better horse on the mile track and two victories at Vernon in 1:52 1/5 confirm it. There is a good chance he heads to the front here and sits a nice trip at big odds. (5) HIGHLAND KISMET is 100% the one to beat in this race but McClure is going to need to keep him in striking range because he is unlikely to make up multiple lengths late on this group. (1) CABALLERO is coming along nicely and last time he was stuck in traffic before finishing up willingly. He’s not impossible on the win end with the right setup. (2) T C I deserves a pass for the break at Vernon but seems unlikely to offer the right value considering the competition level. I’ll play to beat him while respecting his chances to pop off a big mile.

Race 9: $425K Hambletonian Maturity

Some will say that (7) SPECIAL WAY had every opportunity to win last week when she lined up behind live cover and finished a nose short, but how much can you get on her when she came home in 26 3/5? Tetrick must leave this week in a bulky field with a much longer run into the first turn and perhaps new tactics will finally get her over the hump. (12) FRENCH WINE is stuck in the second tier but at least he has the opportunity to leave from behind any horse to his outside. We’ve seen him go big miles in the past and the price should be right. (11) WINNER’S BET is without a doubt the horse to beat, but you have to take a short price on a horse racing without Lasix and no options in terms of trip for the start of the race. (5) HASTY BID has proven he belongs and his early speed should have him in position.

Race 10: $428K William Haughton Memorial - Pick 5

(1) ALLYWAG HANOVER always takes some time to hit his stride and missing four weeks prior to his start in the Brower certainly didn’t help his chances. This has to be one of the races trainer Brett Pelling has circled on his calendar. If the trip is halfway decent we should see a big mile. (4) VOUKEFALAS finally picked up a big win in the Graduate and now he steps up to the top class versus older foes as well. He’s sharp and seemingly capable, though I expect Stratton to play it a bit more conservative. (2) CHARLIE MAY has an insane record of success over this surface and continued that by finishing second in the Brower. At 5-1 or higher I would take a shot. (7) IT’S MY SHOW looked so good two starts back and so average last time. I’m torn.

Race 11: $650K Meadowlands Pace Final - Pick 4

I was on the (7) CAPTAIN ALBANO bandwagon in the North America Cup only to wind up bottled up in the stretch. Those who saw last week’s elimination where he completely lost his gait will certainly shy away, but what I watched was a horse recover and pace home strongly. Give me the overlay price here and I’ll hope for a reasonable trip. (4) MIRAGE HANOVER won’t be on many tickets in the top spot after he was passed like he was standing still last week. Here he lands in a great spot just to the outside of the unbeaten-in-2024 favorite. I expect Tetrick to track that foe (hopefully from second or third over) and have every chance in the lane with a big late burst we’ve already seen he is capable of producing. (3) NJINSKY has done everything right and really opened my eyes with his elimination win, proving a toughness I wasn’t sure he had. My only knock on him is that there are at least a handful of horses that can win and I’m not playing the favorite. (2) FUNTIME BAYAMA is going to need the perfect steer from Dunn IMO. How is he not first-over or forced to brush and have to deal with immediate heat? I’ll play against him as the second choice. (9) CAPTAIN’S QUARTERS reportedly had a bad week prior to the elimination, so his 24 4/5 final quarter to be fourth was pretty darn good. I believe he is a contender but he’ll need some Jamieson magic to find a way from post nine.

Race 12: $100K Jerry Silverman Memorial

(4) MY GIRL EJ’s only recent failure was in the Fan Hanover and you can’t get on her too much as she came home in 26 1/5 in that race. I love that she’s been active but hasn’t had to work hard in two wins since. (5) ITS A LOVE THING won the Fan Hanover but hasn’t been seen since. The comeback qualifier was solid; clear threat. (1) FLAWLESS blew out a big mile at Philly and now takes on the big girls again from a better post than she had in the Fan Hanover; big test.

[DRF HARNESS: Sign up for our FREE DRF Harness Digest Newsletter]

Race 13: $125K Del Miller Memorial

(7) BUY A ROUND powered away from her foes in the Reynolds and I don’t think we even saw how good she is in that race. (3) ALLEGIANT returned fresh after a month on the sidelines to beat an undefeated foe in the Moni Maker. She can certainly play in this arena on her best. (9) DATE NIGHT HANOVER put in the race of her life in the Zweig Filly last time. Can she repeat that mile? (2) HONEY’S SWEET is a trip threat. She needs to save ground and find space.

Race 14: Non-winners $7,500 (NW 2L5 $8,575) to $10,000 in last 4

(10) CHURCHVIEWFRANKL IR finds a field loaded with potential early speed players and that could play right into his hands if he decides to pace the entire mile. His last race in this class was a win. (4) STONE HANOVER is also down in class and a horse that could potentially sit just off the pace and succeed, though Tetrick chose #3. (2) STONEBRIDGE REEF rarely throws in a bad effort at this level; exotics must.