Meadowlands: Analysis for Saturday 7/12
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CHAMPIONSHIP MEET STATS: 275-89-45-33 / $511.30 (-$38.70)
BEST BETS: 20-7-6-1 / $34.00 (-$6.00)
SPOT PLAYS: 19-4-2-5 / $45.20 (+$7.20)
BEST BET: GO DOG GO (4th)
SPOT PLAY: M-M’S DREAM (13th)
Race 1: Open Handicap Trot - Pick 5
(9) LEXUS KODY is arguably in career form right now and has been tackling the best older trotters in the country. He’s going to the top here and I don’t see much serious resistance to him winning. (2) CELEBRITY BAMBINO wasn’t spectacular but certainly went the mile of his year last weekend. If he can move forward off that, a turn-back-the-clock mile would make him a player. (8) OUTSIDE THE FIRE took conservative path last weekend and his late charge wasn’t good enough. You have to expect a change of tactics here.
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Race 2: Non-winners $12,500 (NW L2 $14,000) in last 5 or 9 (NW L2 10) races life/TM 88 (NW L2 90) or less
(7) REMEMBER THE ALAMO was helped by the leader breaking last time but still uncorked a 25 3/5 final quarter that might’ve gotten the job done anyway. While he’ll have to find more speed this week to win, he’s displayed that ability many times. (1) FUSION was Todd McCarthy’s choice over #2. This guy missed four weeks prior to his last start and could certainly improve with that mile in hand. (2) WELCOMETOTHESHOW exited low-level PA-bred races and has clearly found himself in recent weeks versus overnight company. Perhaps he’s ready to succeed here now; Andrew McCarthy joins the team! (3) TARANAKI was used hard last Saturday considering he hadn’t raced in seven weeks. When Dunn pulled the pocket you were thinking he must have more but the 4-year-old came up empty. Don’t count him out in his second start back. (10) JK BLACK GOLD rolled on the lead in 1:49 3/5 when last seen here. The class bump and outside post aren’t ideal but he has the early speed to make his own trip.
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Race 3: $119.5K Stanley Dancer Memorial for 3YO C&G - Survivor 7
(5) MONSERRATE impressed with a blowout mile last time but he didn’t exactly get down to the type of speed he’ll need to win a race like this one. I’m willing to bet that the gas is in the tank and we see more here. (1) HIDALGO has earned my respect by learning to stay trotting under every circumstance. He was given no chance to succeed in the Zweig as I’m assuming his connections wanted to try him from behind versus a strong field. He’s an honest horse that could get lucky if others play it easy tonight. (4) SUPER CHAPTER will be the odds-on favorite here but I’d rather go elsewhere because he really hasn’t beaten much yet as he caught Maryland in his first start and faced second-rate horses in the Yonkers Trot. (7) GAP KRONOS S has proven he belongs and would be no surprise, but I expect he’ll get a more conservative steer tonight.
Race 4: $119.5K Stanley Dancer Memorial for 3YO C&G - $50K GTD Pick 4
Sometimes you have to go with your gut and mine says that (3) GO DOG GO is going to float away and brush to the front here as his connections look to see a different dimension ahead of the Hambletonian eliminations in two weeks. Whether or not (5) MARYLAND will come hard to try the same thing is something I’m not so sure about. Again with the gut feeling, but it tells me that he won’t be unleashed until the elims. Either way, Go Dog Go is very capable of winning from on or off the pace. (6) MAXIMUS MEARAS S qualified very nicely and while the effort was everything you could hope for, he’s got to need a start, especially going against two of the top three in this division.
Race 5: $141.6K Del Miller Memorial for 3YO Fillies
We’ll see many of these horses in the Hambletonian oaks eliminations in two weeks but one that won’t be in attendance is (8) YO TILLIE, who isn’t eligible. She was absolutely spectacular last time and should be all systems go here with nothing major on her calendar while the others are battling. (4) CHAMPAGNE PROBLEMS had a brutal trip when a distant second to the top one last time. The post is much better now and I expect she’ll be put in play. Can she stay with #8? (7) LADY LANDIA didn’t look like a world-beater in her qualifier but certainly did good work. Breeders Crown winner from last year could certainly be ready but more likely will need a start. (2) BEST FRIENDS GIRL scored upon arrival from off the pace and might get a nice piece here with a smooth journey.
Race 6: $141.6K Del Miller Memorial for 3YO Fillies - Pick 6
(9) VOGUISH found an early tuck in the Zweig Filly and then came uncovered only to make a break while trying to clear the front. The price should increase off the miscue and considering the outside post, so I’ll take a shot here assuming that the surface change might move her up. (5) WHAT A BID HANOVER is certainly good at working out crazy trips. One day Svanstedt will get her a clean journey and her competition will pay dearly. (1) TORRISI deserves props for digging in gamely to hold off the former. That said, the 59-second middle half certainly helped. I’d need close to 4-1 to try her. (3) APERFECT ANNIE is perfect in 2025 and not a bad upset option for a barn that brings them ready; McCarthy’s choice over my top pick.
Race 7: $147.5K William Haughton Memorial Open Pace
Is the glass half-empty or half-full? (5) CAPTAIN ALBANO had a pretty good cover trip and visually came up flat in the stretch of the Graduate final last weekend. On the positive side, he left from post 10 and still finished up his mile in 26 2/5. Tonight he moves to the middle of the gate, will offer better value and if he plays his cards right could be sitting the pocket behind the speedy Ruthless Hanover. (11) SABONIS has been huge in consecutive starts and I’d probably come back with him here if not for post 11 in the second tier. Three of the four horses in front of him are a bit sluggish away typically and that means he’ll need some trip magic to score. (9) SEVEN COLORS turned in his best pari-mutuel start of the year in the Brower. The post is an issue but I could take a positive view. (1) ABUCKABETT HANOVER really hasn’t been himself this year, though you could argue the trip didn’t work out last time, and prior to that he had some traffic in the Gold Cup. Perhaps the addition of Gingras will wake him up.
Race 8: $142K Dorothy Haughton Memorial Mare Pace - $100K GTD Pick 4
(1) TWIN B JOE FRESH wasn’t her completely dominating self last time in the Perfect Sting but every horse is entitled to an off day. Just think about it, she came first over, paced in 1:48 4/5 and it was a disappointment. With plenty of early speed signed on here she can sit off the pace and attack. (8) MY GIRL EJ was used hard in a 53 4/5 half last time and lost to the top pick by less than a length. The addition of Lasix seemed to help and the price should be healthy again. (6) KOBE’S GIGI qualified very nicely at Gaitway as she moves into the Burke barn for some East Coast races. She’s a quality mare that is fresh. (9) SYLVIA HANOVER has been really good in her last two starts. I’m sure she’ll try to fire out to get involved but she’ll have plenty of company. If you gave me 4-1 or higher I guess I’d take a shot, but I doubt she’ll offer that price.
Race 9: $425K E.T. Gerry Jr. Hambletonian Maturity for 4YOs (1 1/8 miles)
This really is an interesting race given the added run before the first turn, the size of the field, and the number of horse that come into this race with questions to answer. (6) ELISTA HANOVER left and was wide the entire first turn of the Graduate final yet still had the capacity to close late to miss by a neck. She may be winless on the year but this 4-year-old seems to be getting better and better. Now that everyone will likely be off the (7) HIGHLAND KISMET bandwagon, I’d be willing to take a chance. Looking at his last effort closely, he never had a chance to relax and pressed the pace hard while first over. Even more importantly, it was his first clean line of the year and he showed no signs of making a miscue, not even when he was tiring. We’ll likely get an easier trip here and have to hope things work out but now the price will justify a play. (3) EMOJI HANOVER is lightly raced and really hasn’t done anything wrong in her two miles. She had no shot from last in the Armbro Flight. She has missed time and did make a break in her qualifier, but it just looked like a quick bad step and she raced well. Don’t be shocked if she’s coming late at 50-1. (2) PRIVATE ACESS and (5) WARRAWEE MICHELLE are very logical choices off solid miles in the Graduate but both will be shorter prices and will have to race without Lasix.
Race 10: $147.5K William Haughton Memorial Open Pace - Pick 5
(4) FUNTIME BAYAMA hasn’t been put in play in his last couple of races but the finish has been sharp with a pair of sub 26 final quarters. You can’t win from last in these races and I’m expecting he’ll be put in play this time at a big price. Remember that he missed a ton of racing due to litigation. Is he good enough to win? We’ll find out. (11) BYTHEMISSAL is uber-talented but very much hit and miss. Sometimes he brings a monster effort and sometimes he doesn’t. In a spot like this one where his price will likely be a more reasonable 3-1, he’s worth a chance. (9) KEN HANOVER is the best older pacer in the sport right now but he has a tall task from post nine as the favorite. I respect his chances. (5) CAPTAIN LUKE is the Timex watch of racing. He takes a lickin’ and keeps on tickin’. He battled valiantly in the Graduate last time in defeat and figures to be close to the action again with a fair shot to win.
Race 11: $656K Meadowlands Pace for 3YOs - Pick 4
(4) PRINCE HAL HANOVER is a high speed horse capable of making his trip with blazing early speed. While some will be turned off by the fact that he lost last time, it did come against a good foe in Lite Up The World. That loss could bump up his price a tick or two. (9) MADDEN OAKS is clearly the horse to beat considering he just missed versus Louprint in the NA Cup and comes off a perfect prep at Tioga. That said, do you want 8-5 on a horse with no career stakes wins in 10 tries who is starting from post nine? I can’t toss him nor do I feel confident. (5) CAPTAIN OPTIMISTIC wasn’t very good in the prep last weekend on the lead, though he didn’t really give up late as much as others out-sprinted him. A victory here wouldn’t be a surprise. (1) PAPIS PISTOL has proven he can pop a big mile and also that he can accelerate quickly; another contender.
Race 12: $172.5K Jerry Silverman Memorial for 3YO Fillies
(7) LOOKSGOODINLOULOU clearly hasn’t been “just right” judging by the gaps in her lines, but I loved the return qualifier where she sat behind Miki And Minnie and wasn’t really let loose. Sweet Lou filly is the fastest female 2-yuear-old pacer in history and could be an interesting play here at a decent price. (11) MIKI AND MINNIE returns with Lasix added. She won the first big stake in this division and won’t go down without a fight. (2) RODEO DRIVE DEO slayed #11 in Pennsylvania back on June 21. She’s got plenty of talent.
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Race 13: $40K Miss Versatility Mare Trot 3rd leg
(2) M-M’S DREAM stepped up with her best stakes effort of the year last time and might just be ready now to get over the top as the likely second choice. (1) CALL ME GOO defeated the top pick in the Six Pack last time and is certainly the one to beat again as the odds-on chalk. (6) NELSONBRITEEAGLE NO raced reasonably well coming back off a scratched line; improves? She’s not impossible in this spot.
Race 14: Trackmaster 80.5 (NW L2 82.63) or less
(5) LOUIS LITT N came up with another nice mile to be second at 14-1 last time. The price will go down some now but the effort should be good again. (3) MCWICKED TIME drops a bit from his last attempt here and should be a factor. (7) HAGGARD is another one moving down the class ladder. His form looks awful but don’t be shocked if Jamieson gets him to wake up. (4) STORM THE COURT blew them away in the amateurs and should get a similar drive here with Miller taking the lines.