Meadowlands: Analysis for Saturday 7/10

CHAMPIONSHIP MEET STATS: 241-81-45-43 / $463.20 (-$18.80)

BEST BETS: 18-5-7-1 / $16.80 (-21.20)

SPOT PLAYS: 18-6-5-2 / $41.40 (+$5.40)

BEST BET: MY PAL JOE (11th)

SPOT PLAY: AMERICAN COURAGE (8th)

Race 1: Winners 2-4 (NW L3 5) races life - Pick 5

(5) BAYFIELD BEACH missed by just a head on June 26 to 4-year-old Captain Kirk, who just won the Roll With Joe versus older foes last weekend. New trainer Nancy Takter seems to have him ready for a big mile. (3) ALWAYS A MIKI has been ok in 2020 but not quite as good as last year. This is a talented field of B-level 3-year-olds and he fits in nicely. (1) PIRATE HANOVER has paced in 1:49 and change three straight weeks with just minor checks to show for it. He needs to be closer to the action.

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Race 2: 2-Year-Old Filly Pace

It's really hard to choose between this group even after watching their preliminary efforts. (2) JUST DIVINE flashed a 25 2/5 final quarter in her first baby race and had the composure to overcome a break in winning her next one. First foal from $880,335 earner Divine Caroline and from the first crop of Huntsville appears to have ability. (4) JOYRIDE HANOVER was an impressive winner at Harrington to kick off her career and now she tries the big track. She is the first foal from a mare whose mom produced Highalator ($658K, 1:48) with her first born. (3) GOTTHEGREENLIGHT ripped off a 1:52 4/5 win to start her career and certainly deserves respect. (1) HAMPTONS BABE & (5) BOUDOIR HANOVER have looked good in the morning for the Alagna Armada and either could shine tonight; McCarthy chose the former.

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Race 3: Reynolds Memorial 3YO Filly Trot - Survivor 7

(3) LADY CHAOS seemed to take a few strides to hit high gear and still came home in 26 1/5 last weekend while losing to some nice fillies. With a number of early speed types on the outside of the gate, I expect she'll take a conservative approach and have every chance to gun them down. (1) FLAWLESS COUNTRY has only three races this year and they've all been spaced out. Just three weeks from the Hambletonian Oaks eliminations, I have to believe if she has something in the tank we'll see more of it here. (7) ADIRONDACK had her coming out party last week after sitting a good trip. (6) BELTASSIMA probably needed the race last Saturday. She's a player with a top effort.

Race 4: Reynolds Memorial 3YO Colt Trot

I'm not putting too much weight into the break by (4) DANCINGINTHEDARK M on June 26. Looking at his previous lines, there's simply no reason to believe whatever was bugging him that day will still be an issue here. As of today he seems like the best horse in the race and if we can get 6-5 or so, I would be pleased. If you remove the June 11 start where (9) REALLY FAST broke, he hasn't raced in six weeks. That's a question that needs to be answered. There is talent here and the early speed to overcome the post. (1) TAKE ALL COMERS got back on the Road to the Hambletonian at Philly last time.

Race 5: Reynolds Memorial 3YO Filly Trot

With a couple of these having some questions to answer, let's go with the reliable (3) DARLENE HANOVER. Some will downgrade her EBC win at Vernon, but the track and weather weren't exactly great that night. McCarthy chose #4. Barn loyalty call? She can sit just off the pace here and pounce. (1) WET MY WHISTLE hasn't missed the board yet this year but her only win came from off the pace; new tactics tonight? (7) ANOKA HANOVER is coming off a break and hasn't been seen in four weeks. What do we do with the Dan Patch winner? Maybe take a long look at her on the track. (10) YOU ATO DREAM has the early speed to overcome the bad draw. (4) PIPER HANOVER qualified back well but hasn't raced for "real" since June 6.

Race 6: Meadowlands Pace Elimination - $50K GTD Pick 4

(5) ROCKYROAD HANOVER, despite the dq, couldn't have looked much better winning the PASS at The Meadows last time. I'm still not 100% sure he's a Meadowlands Pace contender, but the price should be more than fair to take a shot he can repeat his last mile. (3) ONE EIGHT HUNDRED is clearly the horse to beat but certainly not yet worth what could be even money or less. (4) HEART OF CHEWBACCA made an impossible move and faded in his Messenger elimination. I love the driver change to Brennan here and wouldn't mind a "minister of speed" type brush after the dust settles. (2) CHARLIE MAY has early speed and plenty of staying power. It's hard to knock him.

Race 7: Reynolds Memorial 3YO Colt Trot

(10) LINDYSMUSCLEMANIA added hobbles in his last qualifier and sprinted home with a monster 26 1/5 final quarter. Post 10 won't make his job any easier but at least we get a quality horse with tons of ability. (6) SONOFAMISTERY is another horse who has already displayed serious speed. Can he stay on stride? I'm in no way jumping off the (9) VENERATE bandwagon and if we get 3-1 or higher, I'd be interested. He's still the Hambletonian favorite in my book. (5) LOCATELLI took a big step forward last time. Now he has to prove he can do it again.

Race 8: Meadowlands Pace Elimination - Pick 6

(1) AMERICAN COURAGE gets perhaps his final test to stardom here as he visits the big track for the first time in his career and tackles the divisional champion in (5) PERFECT STING. The Travis Alexander trainee is perfect in four starts and he should be on the lead or sitting behind Sting in this spot; both prime positions. The latter was clearly not 100% at The Meadows last time, but if you recall he was GIANT here on June 19 versus older foes and should be feared. (7) SOUTHWIND GENDRY didn't have the best trip while a bit flat late last time. He could've needed that start after missing nearly four weeks. The bottom line is he hasn't been good since early May, but if he can turn the switch on, watch out!

Race 9: $250,000 Graduate Trot Final

(6) HYPNOTIC AM followed along behind slow fractions and did her best to chase perhaps the best trotter in North America last week. Driver Brian Sears has some options here whether to leave hard or float and look for a trip. Either way, this race and the Hambletonian Maturity next weekend have been the early-season goals and unlike some other races earlier in the year, she'll 100% be in play. (9) BEADS is the horse to beat because when he's on his game, no one can touch him. He'll be leaving the gate and eventually make the front. Will he last? (4) PLAY TRIX ON ME put himself on the map last time with a 1:50 4/5 win and he'll be overlooked here. (3) IT’S ACADEMIC has early speed and form. He's swept the series so far but this is by far the toughest field he's faced. (8) READY FOR MONI is in the "win" conversation but Tetrick will have to figure out how to get him in a winning position.

Race 10: $250,000 Graduate Pace Final - $50K GTD Pick 4

How did (4) RUTHLESS HANOVER win his last start? That was about as game an effort as you'll see. Trip is going to be key here, but the presence of reliable outside speed and a couple of key contenders to his inside should set him up nicely if McCarthy elects to be patient. (3) CAPTAIN BARBOSSA couldn't handle the trip versus older foes in the Roll With Joe. This guy is capable of taking air, however, and I expect him to bring a big mile. (8) CATTLEWASH has big speed and seems likely to be heading to the front. After last week I have questions as to whether he can win unless he gets to sit the pocket. (5) WARRAWEE VITAL has proven to be very playable in this series and could provide serious value; using.

Race 11: Non-winners $22,500 in last 5 or 11 (NW L3 12) races life

(5) MY PAL JOE finally lands a good post. McCarthy should be able to get him to the front easily enough and sit no worse than second with every chance at a career-best performance. (6) SHAKE THAT HOUSE was over his head in the Roll With Joe and now settles back into more comfortable waters; major player. (9) LET IT RIDE N was the darling of the track earlier this year. His comeback qualifier was solid and perhaps he's ready to roll.

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Race 12: Non-winners $9,000 (NW L3 or NS in 2021 $9,900) in last 5/AE: NW $10,551 in last 8

(3) THE DEVILS OWN N exits a stakes race where he had no shot. As HIP 55 in the sale on July 18, I'd be surprised if he didn't come up with a big mile in this spot. (2) DE LOS CIELOS DEO seems to be back in form. He came home in 25 2/5 last week! (5) ANA MALAK K could be firing to the front here in a race that seems to lack early speed players. (8) IMA REAL LADYS MAN has plenty of form but is handicapped by the outside post.

Race 13: Non-winners $6,000 (NW L3 $6,601) in last 5/Opt. $20,000 Clm.

(3) DEALER'S TABLE is down in class for the powerful Tetrick/Cullipher combination. (8) A MAJOR OMEN should be firing off the gate. He is going to win one in this class sooner or later. (7) UNLOADED N is another sale horse that could awaken; first-time Dexter Dunn. (2) GODS SPIRIT N moves to the inside of the gate and perhaps that will help him keep more in reserve late in the mile.