Meadowlands: Analysis for Saturday 7/1
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CHAMPIONSHIP MEET STATS: 203-67-41-24 / $340.80 (-$65.20)
BEST BETS: 15-9-2-0 / $29.50 (-$.50)
SPOT PLAYS: 15-3-6-0 / $21.80 (-$8.20)
BEST BET: SAVE AMERICA (12th)
SPOT PLAY: CELEBRITY BAMBINO (3rd)
Race 1: Non-winners 2 (NW L2 3) races or $20,000 life/Maidens draw inside - Pick 5
(1) QUEBEC HANOVER rebounded nicely with a good second-place finish last time. Perhaps this guy is moving in the right direction and catching the right field at the right time tonight. (5) THE EMPRESS ICE is typically right there at the wire when she behaves and hobbles on tonight could certainly help that cause. (2) TE AMO LINDY went winless as a 2-year-old but did qualify back nicely for his 3-year-old debut.
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Race 2: Reynolds Memorial Trot for 3YO C&G
(1) WINNER’S BET was never a favorite of mine as a 2-year-old but has qualified back very nicely and a lot can happen from ages 2 to 3. With the favorites likely racing conservatively, he seems worth a shot. (7) AIR POWER seems highly likely to race from last in this spot. That said, he can win from there and will offer a decent price with Melander driving, so I'll use him on my Pick 5 ticket. (6) VOLUME EIGHT was awesome as a 2-year-old, though his qualifiers have been on the ho-hum side. I'll be watching but not playing him.
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Race 3: Reynolds Memorial Trot for 3YO C&G - Survivor 7
(5) CELEBRITY BAMBINO has missed four weeks but did qualify in between to stay sharp. Talented 3-year-old will have a chance to come from off the pace here and pounce in this short field. (4) TACTICAL APPROACH is probably the horse to beat if you feel he is going to control what may be a slow pace; very playable. (2) OH WELL is the best horse in the race for my money. That said, he's missed four weeks and almost certainly is looking for an easier race.
Race 4: Reynolds Memorial Trot for 3YO Fillies
(1) QUICK STOP broke at 1-9 last time but gets a pass since that race was on a half-mile track. Prior to that start she raced well in her first start of the year. In a field without a clear standout, perhaps the big track will move this Tactical Landing-sired filly up. (5) TACTICAL MOUNDS has found herself a bit racing near the front and perhaps those tactics will remain tonight. (4) WILD JIGGY S gets a driver change to Dunn and is at least worth a look.
Race 5: Non-winners $20,000 (NW L2 $24,001) in last 4/TM 92 or less
(7) JACK'S LEGEND N and (4) MY PAL JOE come out of the same race where they were mixed up in a sizzling 52 4/5 half and both should be better served in this class. The former actually wound up in traffic late in that mile and also likely needed the race to get up to speed on the big track after a few starts at Yonkers. I'll use both in the Pick 5 but will lean on #7 more. (1) ROCKS SHINING STAR is in theory getting class relief dropping out of the Graduate series but really isn't facing an easy field.
Race 6: $112,500 Six Pack Open Mare Trot - $50K GTD Pick 4
(2) JIGGY JOG S has been absolutely spectacular in two starts this year. Yes, Dunn jumps ship for (1) BELLA BELLINI, but that is no shock. Svanstedt should be just fine handling the mare in this short field and hopefully will have her sitting first or second. The latter hasn't quite been herself in 2023 but still ranks near the top of the list among trotters. I'd like to see a 2022 "Bella" mile from her before backing on the win end. (4) FASHION SCHOONER had every right to need the race last time since she hasn't gone a clean mile since early May. We should learn more about her tonight.
Race 7: $142,260 Perfect Sting Open Mare Pace
(8) RACINE BELL has done some good things over this track in the past and is the defending champion of this race. While her recent races have been lackluster, notice the addition of Lasix to the equation. Something tells me she will race well at big odds. (4) GRACE HILL remains undefeated on the year and boy was she spectacular in the Roses R Red final; must-use. (5) MIKALA was scratched out of the Roses R Red and has yet to post a win in limited starts this year, but we all know she has plenty of talent. I'm going to take a long look at her in the post parade. (3) BOUDOIR HANOVER has plenty of form and class but still has to prove herself at this level as a 4-year-old.
Race 8: Reynolds Memorial Trot for 3YO Fillies - Pick 6
(8) BOND is the Queen of this division in my mind until proven otherwise. She should romp here at 1-5. (4) BLONDE BOMBSHELL raced well last time when second against the boys. She had missed a few weeks before that start and should be tighter here. (2) BELLA MACCHIATO hasn't missed the board in six starts this year.
Race 9: $155,140 Crawford Farms Open Trot
When playing this race I would ask: which horse makes you feel confident? For me the answer right now is none and that makes me lean to a longshot. (5) RATTLE MY CAGE was used to the front when last seen in the Cutler and had trot when clear at the end of the mile after a shuffle. Five-year-old is just as capable of a 1:50 as any in the field and it doesn't hurt that we get a new driver in Tim Tetrick. (6) ASTEROID is an intriguing prospect from team Svanstedt whole sprinted home nicely in his lone qualifier. Like the top one, he lacks recent racing but hails from a barn that excels at getting horses ready off the bench. (4) VENERATE was a horse I liked in the Cutler at a nice price. Here he's probably the favorite and that recent qualifier where he was allowed to "trot out" the final quarter but came home in 29 3/5 didn't inspire confidence. (3) IT'S ACADEMIC is a very good trotter who still hasn't reached the elite level in my eyes. He has a shot to win but won't be worth the odds.
Race 10: $158,140 Dave Brower Memorial Open Pace - $50K GTD Pick 4
Going to think outside the box here and go with (10) TATTOO ARTIST. The logic here is the amount of early speed signed on should make the pace insanely fast. Ruthless Hanover went 52 4/5 to the half last time and now he'll have plenty of company which could lower it a few tics. The top pick is sharp and fast enough, plus Dunn is a whiz at being in the right place. (5) BACKSTREET SHADOW got in his first meaningful race since April when you consider all of his other lines are qualifiers or a break at Northfield. He can definitely be tighter now at a huge price and notice his lifetime mark is over this track last year. (8) ABUCKABETT HANOVER is clearly the horse to beat off consecutive impressive victories off good trips, but he's likely going to need to rough it a bit to win tonight. That was never his calling card, though perhaps he's gotten stronger as a 5-year-old. (6) THIS IS THE PLAN can win from on or off the pace and is capable of taking a bit of air. Not sure I believe in him as a win candidate but certainly underneath.
Race 11: 3-Year-Old Open Pace
(6) CHRISTCHURCH is swimming in shallower water this week after tackling the best of this division in the North America Cup. Logic would say he'll be put on the engine tonight, though I wouldn't be shocked if Dunn had other ideas. (4) AMMO tried to leave but quickly aborted in the NA Cup. He'll make the top here and should sit a good trip. (3) EL REY is still in the zone where I can excuse away his winless record this year. Anything less than a strong effort here would mean it's time to jump ship. (7) KEN HANOVER looked awesome until late May when he bled. He's back now and on Lasix; worth consideration.
Race 12: Non-winners $10,000 (NW 2L4 $11,431) in last 4 or 6 races life/TM 86.5 or less
(1) SAVE AMERICA gets substantial class relief and should get healthy in this spot. (2) PAT MCGARRY A dropped to this level and raced very well to miss a head behind another good 3-year-old last time. The AE condition is killing this guy. (7) MIKE'S Z TAM is a classy old guy who raced well last week and should be leaving the gate.
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Race 13: Trackmaster 87.5 (NW L5 88.55) or less
(5) SHESASHARPSHOOTER was used a bit too hard on the lead last time. Shipper picks up Dunn and should have an easier time making the top. (6) NATASHA has been sharp for some time and seems like a fit in this condition. (4) GOO GOO WON shows some lines that look good on paper and she's won on the big track at Hoosier in the past. (7) VALAR DOHAERIS comes off a win at Yonkers and shows two good lines over this track prior to that.
Race 14: Non-winners 2 (NW L2 3) races or $20,000 (3YO $32,000) life/Maidens draw inside
(5) BRUE HANOVER shipped south of the border into the Burke barn and looked like a champion at The Meadows. I'll follow him. (4) HUNGRY ANGEL BOY is getting major class relief as he drops out of stakes company; hard to toss. (2) KAPTAIN KARLOS has a couple of nice races under his belt this year but like (1) DUPREE HANOVER, remains winless in his career and might be racing for exotic slots only.