Meadowlands: Analysis for Saturday 6/29

MEET STATS: 197-66-39-27 / $412.10 (+$18.10)

BEST BETS: 14-9-1-2 / $37.00 (+$9.00)

SPOT PLAYS: 14-4-3-1 / $36.40 (+$8.40)

BEST BET: SUNKIST BEAUTY (4^th)

SPOT PLAY: SPY COAST (7^th)

Race 1: Non-winners 2 (NW L2 3) races life/Maidens draw inside - Pick 5

(3) MIKI RAY two-moved to the front and held gamely for second last week. He’s still winless in 11 career starts but things seem to be moving in the right direction. (4) CUPID SHUFFLE finished up willingly with no shot after drawing post 10 last time. He’s likely a big threat now from the better post but I fear he’ll be an underlay in terms of price. (7) PRINCIPLE INTEREST saved all the ground and only finished a length behind #4 in his latest race. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a more aggressive effort now to see what is in the tank. (5) WHO SAID I CAN’T is worth a look on the driver change angle.

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Race 2: $112,500 Six Pack Mare Trot - Survivor 7

(1) JIGGY JOG S returns to action following a six week break and while that may be concerning in some cases, Svanstedt is an expert at having a horse ready despite missing time. Champion 5-year-old is simply better than these. (5) M-M’S DREAM might be in a perfect spot to gun off the gate and set slow fractions if Jiggy Jog takes her normal conservative route. That would give her a tactical edge on finishing second over (2) CALL ME GOO, who rolled by her last time in the Armbro Flight. Regardless of which mare finishes second, the exacta payout will be small.

Race 3: $112,500 Perfect Sting Mare Pace

(1) SYLVIA HANOVER keeps getting better with every start but needs to race closer to the lead if she is ever going to beat (4) TWIN B JOE FRESH. Drawing inside tonight allows her every opportunity to come out strong and secure a better position; ball is in McClure’s court. The latter has been virtually unbeatable thus far and is clearly the one to beat again. (2) SILVER LABEL has gotten dull versus better competition; third best.

Race 4: Reynolds Memorial 3YO Filly Trot - Pick 6

(2) SUNKIST BEAUTY responded nicely when asked last time to win her second consecutive qualifier. I liked what I saw last year from this filly and she lucked-out to land in a division without Buy A Round. (8) GRACEFUL DESIGN is clearly as good as any in here when right and she adds hobbles now to keep the ship sailing; interesting option at the right price. (9) ST PAULI GIRL can leave the gate nicely for position and she has only missed the board once this year.

Race 5: Non-winners $7,500 (NW 2L5 $8,250) to $10,000 (NW L2 $11,010) in last 4

(5) JOEMIKIYOURSOFINE is back at the level of his last win and he was super that night despite taking air on the rim. He followed that effort up by being a good second behind Voukefalas and then had no chance from post seven at Yonkers. (8) MAD MAX HANOVER drops back down, was Tetrick’s choice and you can expect big early speed off the gate. (10) CAPTAIN CRUSADER A drops two classes and would be no surprise here despite the outside draw. (2) WHOLE LOTTA LOU is right there every week; using underneath.

Race 6: Reynolds Memorial 3YO C&G Trot - $50K GTD Pick 4

(6) KARL is the top-ranked 3-year-old trotter in the sport and he simply has no equal in this field. (8) BRIGHT STAR rebounded from a somewhat disappointing NJSS Final with a win on June 14. He seems like a legitimate exacta candidate if Zeron can navigate the outside post to work out a reasonable trip. (5) FRENCH KRONOS has raced sporadically but well. This will be a good test to see where he ranks in the division. (4) SECRET AGENT MAN is going to get a lot more support this week after finishing second in 1:51 4/5 last time. I’ll take a wait and see approach for now.

Race 7: Reynolds Memorial 3YO Filly Trot

(5) SPY COAST is a horse I was firmly against in her last start as the heavy chalk but this sets up as a much better scenario. At a much better price, Gingras can send her to the front and perhaps get a tactical edge on a horse like (6) SOIREE HANOVER, who has loads of class but has to be looking at a conservative steer to kick off her 2024 campaign. (9) ELISTA HANOVER has won seven of eight races versus somewhat soft competition in Pennsylvania. I’ll watch her here at shorter odds but respect her win chances.

Race 8: 3YO Open Pace - Pick 5

(3) CAPTAIN LUKE simply didn’t perform up to expectations in Canada and now arrives back at his home track where he posted a win versus much softer on May 25. From where I’m sitting, more than any other in here, he needs a strong performance to set up for a potential Meadowlands Pace appearance. (2) NUCLEAR was super in his first start of the year and he’ll be on my Pick 4 tickets. (7) MIRAGE HANOVER was extremely unlucky up in Canada, first with a first-over trip and then locked in the pocket under a Tim Tetrick death grip. I worry he’ll be overbet because of the troubled trip but if he isn’t, take a shot.

Race 9: Reynolds Memorial 3YO C&G Trot

(6) T C I is perfect in two starts this year after coming off one of the best seasons ever in terms of a 2-year-old. We haven’t seen what’s in the tank yet this year but I imagine we’ll get a glimpse tonight. (1) CABALLERO kept his act together last time and now Smedshammer calls on a catch driver to steer the ship. (5) SIG SAUER has been “mid” as the kids may say thus far after three qualifiers. He was exceptional in 2023. I’ll watch a start. (9) TONY ADAMS S seems to be getting better every time he hits the track; outside post could hurt tonight but Dunn chose here over #1.

Race 10: $131,250 Crawford Farms Open Trot - $50K GTD Pick 4

(1) ASTEROID showed nothing in his first year here in 2023 but seems to be a different horse now. He chased Jiggy Jog home willingly in start one and dominated versus much lesser in his second race. Is he this good? I don’t know. But the price should be right to take a shot. (6) IT’S ACADEMIC should be ready to roll after three qualifiers and the trip might work out from off the pace with plenty of live horses to follow. (5) VENERATE worked out a great trip and scored at a nice price in the Maxie Lee. He returns off a good qualifier after missing five weeks and I’m not sure I want to back him at under 4-1 potentially.

Race 11: $152,190 Dave Brower Memorial Open Pace

This shapes up as a very nice race which could go insanely fast if the stars align. Let’s try (5) ABUCKABETT HANOVER, who went a huge mile in defeat in the Gold Cup and could line up here nicely in the outer flow at around 5-2, which is very appealing. (1) RUTHLESS HANOVER is a horse I’m rooting for because he has eye-catching speed that is simply fun to watch. If we are going to see a 1:46 type mile it will be because he was involved in the pace scenario. (2) CHRISTCHURCH faded after setting good fractions last time and I foresee more patient tactics now as the horse to his inside will do the heavy lifting. If things work out and he shakes free, watch out. (4) ALLYWAG HANOVER has put in the necessary work and may be ready to fire but I’m going to wait one more start.

Race 12: Reynolds Memorial 3YO Filly Trot

(5) CHAPALONIA came back from a six week vacation and raced steadily with a nice 27 2/5 final quarter. With that start under her halter, perhaps she moves forward a bit at good odds. (2) HONEY SWEET is clearly the horse to beat as she’s turned the corner with hobbles added and looks to be on the Hambletonian Oaks track. (6) BUY A ROUND scratched out of a $240K race on May 31 and hasn’t been seen since. We all know how good she is but you have to expect she’ll be coming from behind this week at odds that won’t be appealing.

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Race 13: Non-winners $5,000 (NW L2 $5,780) in last 4

(3) BET A BUNDLE gets class and post relief tonight. Expect to see him heading to the front. (1) LYRICAL GENIUS A was second the last time he landed in this condition and he chased a horse that would be favored in this field; clear contender. (8) WEHADABABYETZABOY has been making breaks at Harrington and should appreciate the switch to the big track. He set a career-best mile here earlier in the year. (9) LITE N SWEET is a capable horse that needs a decent trip from the outside post to succeed.

Race 14: $10,000-$12,500 Claiming Handicap

(9) HURRYMIKI HANOVER lands in a field with more $7,500 and $10,000 claimers than $12,500 types. He should be leaving the gate hard and figures to be the last to get the front of that group. It will all come down to how hard he needs to work to get position. (1) GOLDEN GESTURE raced well at big odds last time as Tioga shippers continue to do well here. (7) SUNNY AND EIGHTY loses his driver to (5) TEXAS MIKI but that likely means a better price on a horse that was second in this class last weekend. The latter lands Zeron as he drops in for the cheapest claiming price he has seen since February.