Meadowlands: Analysis for Saturday 5/6
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FINAL WINTER MEET STATS: 363-102-77-43 / $621.10 (-$104.90)
BEST BETS: 27-8-10-2 / $39.40 (-14.60)
SPOT PLAYS: 27-6-6-3 / $38.20 (-$17.80)
BEST BET: TWO PISTOL ANNIE (4th)
SPOT PLAY: SOUTHWIND GENDRY (10th)
Race 1: Non-winners $3,000 (NW L3 $3,315) in last 4 - Pick 5
(4) I'M BURLINGTON N double-drops in class tonight after a solid effort where he paced home in 26 2/5. Perhaps we'll see him aggressively handled here. (3) LYONS PEGASUS stepped down the ladder last time and raced better. He dips another level tonight and figures to bring a strong effort. (1) TWIN B JAMMER could improve on the switch to the big track.
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Race 2: Miss Versatility Mare Trot
After consecutive races to start the year where (2) FASHION SCHOONER was content to sit and watch before sprinting home in 26 1/5, perhaps this is the week where she is sent to the front in an attempt to steal a win from (5) BELLA BELLINI. The latter seems highly like to sit last and make one big run in her 2023 debut. Obviously she's the best horse in the race. (3) DREAMONHIGH comes to town with form but needs to prove she is fast enough.
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Race 3: Trackmaster 74.5 (NW L3/2L5/Not 3rd L5 75/75.5/75.75) or less - Survivor 7
(1) TWIN B RAPTOR moves into the Estrada barn and that is always a live angle. Four-year-old shows past big-track success that would make him very competitive here with some improvement. (5) CAPOZZO is a veteran with plenty of class to him that could awaken with Gingras taking over the assignment. (7) CLAYTONS BETTOR N deserves consideration with Dunn taking over the lines, but I wouldn't want 2-1 or less just due to the driver change.
Race 4: NJ Sire Stakes 3YO Filly Pace
(5) TWO PISTOL ANNIE raced well as a 2-year-old and has come back strong north of the border to prepare for the NJ Sire Stakes. She's a standout on paper unless one of the others steps up in a big way. (4) DEVILISH DREAMS didn't show much in her lone qualifier but proved she could chase nicely last year. She could be at least an exotics contender at big odds. (6) LISA LANE got in two morning efforts to prepare for this and I wouldn't be surprised to see her show early speed.
Race 5: Non-winners $7,500 (NW L5 $8,690) in last 5/TM 83.5 (NW L3/2L5 84/84.84) or less
(8) WILL THE WIZARD A put up sizzling fractions and still almost lasted the mile a week ago. I'm starting to become gun-shy on this guy but none of the rest are very enticing on the win end. (3) IMAGINARY LINE drops back down to an easier level. Five-year-old should get a big piece of this race. (1) ADAM CROCKER A should stick close and have a chance, though it is hard to get excited about him winning.
Race 6: Open 1 Trot - $50K GTD Pick 4
(5) HILLEXOTIC is certainly going to the front and very likely to be controlling a slow pace here. (3) AHUNDREDDOLLARBILL finds a good spot to leave the gate hard as well and that would line him up with a sweet trip and every chance to step up. (6) INCOMMUNICADO would be an interesting play if there was some guarantee he would be put in play early, otherwise we have to hope he can sweep the field.
Race 7: Non-winners $14,000 in last 5 or 8 races life/TM 89.5 or less
This race seems loaded with early speed players and something (or someone) will have to give. (1) MIND HUNTER is one of those speed horses but perhaps from the inside post he can lay back a bit early and make a backside brush to the top. His last mile was a complete toss from an outside post after missing a bit of time. (5) STONEBRIDGE REEF did what he does best last week by finishing second. This race could setup nicely for him if Dunn is patient. (3) CAPTAIN FANCY beat slightly weaker last time but is another who could benefit from a quick pace.
Race 8: NJ Sire Stakes 3YO C&G Pace - Pick 6
(3) VOUKEFALAS has prepped beautifully for this series with two sharp qualifiers and seems ready to roll. (4) HANDLELIKEAPORSCHE chased the top one home most recently. Stakes player at 2 may get an easier steer here but is certainly capable. (2) LAZ had no chance last time in Canada after chasing somewhat slow fractions. Trainer change here is interesting.
Race 9: Non-winners $20,000 in last 5 or 10 races or $100,000 life/TM 88.65 or less draw inside
(4) PRETENDER put in two good workouts versus inferior foes and now faces older for the first time. I think he is up to the task but we'll know for sure at the end of the mile. (7) HARRY KNOWS IR seems likely to head to the front and take this field a long way, maybe even all the way, though I'll be leaning to an underneath spot for him. (6) RATTLE MY CAGE is best on paper but has to need the race after just a 1:57 1/5 qualifier. Expect him to be charging late.
Race 10: Non-winners $20,000 (NW L3 $22,000) in last 5 or 10 races life/TM 92.5 or less - $50K GTD Pick 4
(7) SOUTHWIND GENDRY has been racing from off the pace and those tactics end tonight with Gingras back in the bike. (2) TRENDY TEEN certainly surprised many when he charged home to just miss last weekend. He's just 4 and can certainly improve. (8) LOCHINVAR ART A was better than his line looks in the Borgata final. Another outside post here isn't ideal but he has the ability given a reasonable trip. (6) HAMMERING HANK got an easy mile and charged home in his first start since last November. He'll get plenty of wagering attention off that mile but I'm not convinced he's getting more aggressive early quite yet.
Race 11: NJ Sire Stakes 3YO Filly Pace
Going to take a shot here with (1) GET ANSWERS. Her last two miles at Harrington were no joke and if she can drop time moving to the big track, she'll give this group all they can handle. (4) ANNA’S WISH is going to attract a ton of pari-mutuel attention on the trainer change angle and improvement is certainly expected. (6) UCANDOIT BLUE CHIP is the returning NJSS champion in this division. Is she ready to roll? Has she improved a bit over the winter? I'm not sure yet.
Race 12: Non-winners $10,500 in last 5/TM 85.30 or less
Lots of early speed signed on here and that can help (9) LEXUS MARKUS overcome the bad outside draw. Burke trainee has been sharp since moving to this oval. (1) CHAKE seemed to enjoy this surface in his first try and there is no reason he can't build on that performance. (3) NYLANDER drops down but has done his best work here one class lower. (10) DONATO PATRIOT K is in a similar boat as #9 in terms of being sharp and drawn outside, but he may need to close from last, which is very difficult.
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Race 13: Non-winners $10,500 in last 5/NW in $10,500 last start/TM 86.9 or less
(3) LOVE YOUR WORK A couldn't catch a rated leader but raced very well for second last week on the drop to this class. (6) MARCUS SEELSTER has been climbing the class ladder with success but loses Dunn tonight. (2) CAVEMAN A gets post and class relief; threat.
Race 14: Non-winners $3,000 in last 5/TM 77.5 (NW L3/4YO 78/78.75) or less
(5) TOP HONORS seems to have found herself a few starts into her 4-year-old season. Notice the 1:51 2/5 win at The Red Mile last year showing she can handle the big track. (10) DRAGONS REVENGE stopped badly in her first start for these connections but did qualify back well enough to think she can do a 180 in terms of form here. (9) TOPVILLE RHONDA rallied well with Lasix added last time. (6) BE BEST has been racing ok of late. Her chances come down to the trip.