Meadowlands: Analysis for Saturday 5/22

CHAMPIONSHIP MEET STATS: 80-24-15-14 / $151.80 (-$8.20)

BEST BETS: 6-1-4-0 / $2.80 (-9.20)

SPOT PLAYS: 6-2-1-1 / $13.80 (+$1.80)

BEST BET: ELVER HANOVER (1st)

SPOT PLAY: HEZA REAL DIAMOND (4th)

Race 1: Non-winners 4 (NW L3 or 3YO 5) races life/AE: 4YOs, NW $1 in last 2 or TM 90.1 or less - Pick 5

(7) ELVER HANOVER only finished sixth but took a big step forward in his second start of 2021. The Ron Burke trainee finished up the mile with good pace versus a field of horses that would be favored in this spot. He's perfectly spotted to shine here. (1) MULLINAX had a solid freshman campaign and showed something with a second-place finish last time. He's on the radar now. (2) BETTOR SUN did good things up in Canada and even got a check in the Metro as a 2-year-old. Sunshine Beach-sired colt qualified sharply last Friday while in-hand. (6) THE GREEK FREAK gets the same class break as the top one but still has much to prove.

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Race 2: Non-winners 2 (NW L3 3) races or $22,500 life/Maidens draw inside

(8) NATAMERI paced an impressive 1:50 2/5 winning mile at Vernon Downs to start his career and that track is at least a second slower than The Meadowlands. Tetrick picks up the drive now. Something tells me he's a good one. (4) CENTURY HANNIBAL was a strong second behind the promising Curbside Pickup to start his career and came right back with a winning mile the following week. He'll need to drop four seconds moving to the big track tonight but seems capable. (5) SOUTHWIND PETYR did some good things as a 2-year-old and has qualified back well. (7) JIMMY CONNOR B charged home from Trenton to finish third last week and only seems to be getting better with experience.

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Race 3: $12,500/$15,000 Claiming Handicap - Survivor 7

(9) SUGARTOWN did all he could last week but was simply too far back to menace despite a 26 3/5 final quarter. Callahan will likely have to push away for better position but he can be a player here at a price. (8) JUSTIN CREDIBLE won in this class two starts back and moves into a barn that is typically live with new arrivals. (2) IDEAL SON might be a stretch on the win end but will appreciate the move inside on the gate.

Race 4: Non-winners $9,000 (NW L3 $9,900) in last 5 or $1 in last 2/TM 84.39 or less

(2) HEZA REAL DIAMOND wasn't going to defeat American History and Nicholas Beach in his last two starts, so let's toss those lines. With this field including some that don't belong and others that are lacking form, he should show speed from the start and have a big shot. (3) WES DELIGHT also faced American History last week and that was in an even higher class. Once highly-regarded in his younger days, this guy has a shot tonight but could be overbet. (4) BECHERS BROOK A has had his head handed to him in this class in the past but is capable of stepping up on occasion.

Race 5: Graduate Trot Leg 1

(5) HYPNOTIC AM wasn't exactly raced with urgency in her first start of the year and she did her best late with no shot. With plenty of speed to her inside it is highly likely that she take the off-the-pace path again, but I expect Sears to keep her much closer and have her moving earlier in the mile. (4) IT'S ACADEMIC has put together back-to-back wins but he stole two soft halves in those races. I'll admit he's the horse to beat at what will likely be an underlay price. (2) AB'SATTITUDEEXPRESS is perfect this year and she held off the Hambo Oaks winner last time out; clear player.

Race 6: Non-winners $17,500 in last 5 or 10 races life - $50K GTD Pick 4

(9) JL CRUZE finally woke up last time after a series of subpar efforts. The 10-year-old is down in class and facing a field he is supposed to defeat. (4) MORAIRTIME got class relief a week ago and raced much better with off the pace tactics. I can see him showing a bit of speed here with the goal of following the top pick; adds Lasix. (10) READY FOR MONI finished second in his qualifier but no one was beating Beads that morning. That effort should have him tight and this barn tends to send them out ready, but I'd need at least 3-1 to take a shot against more experienced foes from post 10.

Race 7: Winners 5-7 (NW L3 8) races life

(4) WARRAWEE VITAL set crazy-fast fractions and just missed in a huge effort. He's simply a step faster than these at his best and hopefully the trip will be more appealing this time. (7) CAPTAIN VICTORIOUS saved ground until the stretch in his 2021 debut and was loaded with pace. This guy could be ready to pop a big effort, though admittedly it may be one week away. (10) SAVE ME A DANCE has looked super in his last two starts and the only question is whether MacDonald can work out a trip from the bad post. (1) ALLYWAG HANOVER drops out of the Graduate and is certainly capable, though he's not one of my favorites to play.

Race 8: Kissin In The Sand Mares Open - Pick 6

This is an impossible race from a handicapping standpoint since many of these ladies are lightly raced and almost all of them are capable of winning. (9) RACINE BELL made the move to the big track last week and was a very impressive second behind Soho Burning Love. She seems likely to head to the top in this bulky field and that gives her a bit of an advantage. (5) TREACHEROUS REIGN was an excellent 3-year-old who didn't excel versus a tough group of mares at age 4. She's back now off a credible mile and could be ready to show much more. (1) MACHNHOPE enters this event on a three-race winning streak and could certainly make it four, but demand value! (4) ROCKNIFICENT paced in 1:49 1/5 with a 25 4/5 last quarter and was visually bad last week (hard to imagine) despite the good stats. Her best puts her right in the mix. (6) JK FIRST LADY proved herself as a 2- and 3-year-old; first start was solid.

Race 9: Non-winners $12,500 (NW L3 $14,000) in last 5

(9) NANDOLO N was absolutely flying home in his U.S. debut last weekend and has the looks of a horse to watch for sure. That said, there are questions about how fast he can leave and get into the race from the outside post. Don't accept a short price. (3) ON THE CARDS also made a mark in his North American unveiling with an easy win at Philly; better post. (5) LYONS KING is far from the best horse but has valuable early speed which should put him in position. (8) SHAKE THE HOUSE chased better last week in his first start since October. He's more than fast enough if ready to find his best form.

Race 10: Graduate Trot Leg 1 - $50K GTD Pick 4

At some point you have to become a believer in (4) LOVEDBYTHEMASSES being this good and I'm finally there. He's versatile and should still offer decent value despite his 1:51 score last time. (6) BEADS added hobbles again and ran off with a monster qualifying mile. It's a mystery as to which horse will show up and Gingras opted off so don't take a short price. (5) SORELLA does her best work barefoot and I'm not expecting to see her shed the shoes quite yet. She's a contender regardless.

Race 11: Open Preferred Handicap

(5) AMERICAN HISTORY posted a mile in the 1:47 range for the third year in his career, which is quite impressive. He's razor sharp now and should prove tough again as the favorite. (7) NICHOLAS BEACH got a well-deserved couple of weeks off and should be better for it. The question is whether he can go with American History. (4) THIS IS THE PLAN returns after a 33-day rest following his Borgata victory. His best puts him in the picture but he's never been faster than 1:48 2/5 in a $2 million career.

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Race 12: Non-winners $6,000 (NW L2 $6,600) in last 5 or Winners TM 77 in last 2

(5) JOESSTAR OF MIA A went a big mile to be second behind a 2-5 favorite in his first start for Cano. This is a close-knit group with many contenders but he gets the slight edge. (3) QUALITY BUD, the uncoupled stablemate of the top pick, drops down to a level where he tends to bring his "A" game. Expect him to find early speed. (4) WILD COUNTRY arrives from Pompano and moves into a barn that has seen lots of success in 2021. (6) SONIC FLARE takes a sharp step up in class while looking for his third straight win and is not out of it. (10) LEXUS WITH A VIEW A drops for the third straight week. Will we see big early speed to overcome the bad post?

Race 13: Non-winners $17,500 ($12,500 draw inside) in last 5 or 9 (7 draw inside) races life

(5) LOVELY DONNA has turned into a new horse with Lasix added. If she can repeat last week's mile they are all racing for second. (7) BESTSELLER HANOVER qualified back sharply, striding out late while never asked for speed with the stick. Five-year-old has missed two months but seems ready. (4) KICKUPYAHEELS N flashed good speed at both ends of the mile while losing to a 3-year-old with potential last week.

Race 14: Non-winners $3,500 (NW L3 $3,850) in last 5

(2) ARCHANGEL THREE went a big mile last weekend to be second behind a horse hailing from a barn that was red hot. He seems worth following. (5) PARTY BOY wasn't bad in his first start of the year and now the trainer calls on a catch-driver. (9) FOREVERNALWAYS and (7) POKERFACE BLUECHIP both drop in class but neither has form. I'll be checking them out in the post parade.