Meadowlands: Analysis for Saturday 5/18

MEET STATS: 42-9-10-8 / $70.10 (-$13.90)

BEST BETS: 3-0-0-2 / $0.00 (-$6.00)

SPOT PLAYS: 3-0-1-0 / $0.00 (-$6.00)

BEST BET: OAKWOOD ARDAN IR (6^th)

SPOT PLAY: VENERATE (11^th)

Race 1: New Jersey Sire Stakes 3YO Filly Trot - Pick 5

(7) LOCAL HONEY was locked in the pocket during her first qualifier and rolled to a very easy win in her second attempt. Brittany Farms homebred needs a big mile to make the final in two weeks and I have to expect she’ll be put in play. (2) COOL MA BELLE was blocked two separate times in the lane last time and never had the chance to stretch her legs. She deserves another chance at what should be a decent price. (1) VOLCANIC BLUE CHIP is fast away from the gate and will certainly be heard from during the mile.

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Race 2: New Jersey Sire Stakes 3YO C&G Trot - Survivor 7

(1) MARS HILL was super in defeat to start his 2024 campaign. He figures to push away here and secure early position. (4) SOUTHWIND METRIC raced well in his initial try of the year while chasing home perhaps the best trotter in this division. (5) CABALLERO found a clear path up the pylons and scooted on to victory last time. Was that because he is very talented or everything just worked out? We’ll find out more tonight.

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Race 3: New Jersey Sire Stakes 3YO Filly Trot

(7) ALLEGIANT got a conservatively steer and finished very willingly in leg one of this series. I’m hoping Zeron, who chose here over #1 and #4, has the green light at the start this week but there is a chance that might wait until the final. (5) SPY COAST absolutely stole the race on the engine last week. While she won’t offer value you must respect her chances of going wire to wire again. (1) MISS I LA angled in the stretch with a big burst of speed and kind of hung a bit late. Maybe she just has a short burst and needs to be closer for it to work.

Race 4: Meadowlands Amateur Drivers Club 2 Pace - Pick 6

(1) T DOG looks awful on paper but really hasn’t been in the right spots. This guy has early speed and I think this is the week Kimelman will use it. (6) ROCK ON LINE is basically Mr. Consistency as he seems to finish on the board every week. (4) MUSCLE FACTORY A comes off an impressive win. (8) HEZA REAL DIAMOND gets Beltrami back in the bike.

Race 5: Non-winners $14,000 in last 4 or 9 races life/TM 88.5 or less

(4) CAVIART BELLE finished under a hold behind a wall of horses while coming home in 26 seconds in her most recent qualifier. Yes, she’s a 3-year-old taking on older, but she has the class to succeed and hails from a barn that tends to send them ready to roll. (2) ROCKN PHILLY took a bad shuffle on the final turn last time at Yonkers or she may be riding a four race winning streak. (6) ODDS ON HAIL MARY was a stakes-level 3-year-old and her comeback qualifiers have been good enough. The question is whether she’ll be put in a winning spot tonight. (3) BLOOD MOON A is worth a look adding Lasix.

Race 6: Trackmaster 89.5 Final - $50K GTD Pick 4

(4) OAKWOOD ARDAN IR spent the final turn on the rim and basically won for fun, only needing a couple of reminder taps in the lane to win. Five-year-old still has unknown ability and could ultimately turn out to be better than this group. (2) PRIMARY COLORS scratched out of leg two after a win in the opening round. He was rolling along before that issue and owns some class. (1) SHAZAM BLUE CHIP looked very good sitting the pocket but not so great on the lead last time. I expect they’ll try to cover him up here. (3) CAPTAIN CRUSADER A is certainly sharp and could be a factor with the right trip.

Race 7: Trackmaster 83 (NW L2/2L4 83.5/84) or less

(1) RIVER NESS was in over his head last time but now drops back to the level of his last win two starts back. I’m expecting a much better effort tonight. (5) DIVINE RIGHT just went around the track last week and found no room up the pylons. His prior races show good form. (9) CHURCHVIEWFRANKL IR was in a tough spot from post 10 last time versus Primary Colors. Now he comes back in a new barn with Lasix added; wakes up?

Race 8: New Jersey Sire Stakes 3YO Filly Trot - Pick 5

(4) GLAMOROUS HANOVER looked very solid while not pushed in the lane and showing no signs of a breaking issue in her last qualifier. I’m going to take a shot here that she can make the front or sit the pocket and get the jump on (5) BUY A ROUND. The latter sat a golden trip on cover and won oh so easily in her 2024 debut. She’s the best filly in the field but will be racing conservatively again, which scares me. (6) FRENCH CHAMPAGNE worked out a good trip and won leg one. Can it happen again?

Race 9: Winners 1-2 races or $21,500 life/Maidens draw inside

(5) MCCRUNCH now has two starts on five-eighths ovals and two races where he made breaks. He’s back on the big track tonight where he has never lost and almost certainly will be put in play with the possibility of stealing the race as others coming off qualifiers take a more conservative approach. (3) CAPTAIN LUKE comes off one of those qualifiers I love. He sat last and had as much pace as anyone in the stretch. If I knew Zeron would push away from the gate he would be my top pick. (2) REMEMBER THE ALAMO has kept up with good company - Captain Albano and Gem Quality - in the morning. Don’t discount his chances.

Race 10: New Jersey Sire Stakes 3YO C&G Trot - $50K GTD Pick 4

(4) KARL wasn’t perfect on the final turn in my opinion but that was explained post-race by trainer Nancy Takter in that the colt was hitting the race bike. This race could be a little tricky starting outside a horse that drifted and broke last time into the first turn. That said, I’m sure Gingras will do his best to avoid that one. (7) TONY ADAMS S found a second gear in mid-stretch in his lone qualifier. With some breakers signed on here, he could be closer than you think despite post seven and flying late for the place. (5) DUKE OF WALNER put in an ok debut mile and should continue to move forward with that start in hand.

Race 11: $145,150 AJ Cutler Memorial Open Trot

(6) VENERATE was well within himself while finishing third in a perfect prep to prepare for his first stakes assignment of the year. Six-year-old captured last year’s Cutler and seems ready to pop a big mile in his second start this year. (3) PERICULUM spent 2023 in Europe but returned here with the easiest of wins at Pocono. We already know he can trot in 1:50 since he did in at The Red Mile as a 3-year-old. Is he ready for that type of mile? I say yes and the price will be juicy. (7) JIGGY JOG S makes her first start following a championship campaign last year. Her qualifier was solid but I suspect we won’t see her best from an outside post to start the year as the favorite. (2) ASTEROID is an interesting value play off a good qualifier with Lasix added.

Race 12: Open Pace

(4) KEN HANOVER was spectacular winning his qualifier with a 26 3/5 final quarter at Philadelphia on May 7 and this race looks like the perfect prep to get him up to speed for the first leg of the Graduate series should he choose to ship to Mohawk. Four-year-old lands a good post to either leave and sit what will probably be a pocket trip or race from off the pace and possibly land cover. (6) VOUKEFALAS can sprint a final quarter as fast as any horse alive. He’s coming into form and might be ready to pop a big mile here. (5) MAXIMUS MIKI is certainly sharp and seems likely to be forwardly placed, but he’s certainly facing a tougher group here. (3) ALLYWAG HANOVER is a notorious slow starter who seems likely to be overbet.

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Race 13: New Jersey Sire Stakes 3YO C&G Trot

I’m a bit concerned that he’ll be an underlay but boy was that qualifier by (1) PANTORAN impressive. He finished in an insane 25 4/5 and could be anything at this point. (3) BENNY J was ultra-impressive while digging in late for the win last weekend; the one to beat. (7) HILLOOKIN seems to be a nice solid horse now with hobbles added. Notice he lost to a 4-year-old last time. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Smedshammer gun off the gate here. (6) MY WAY has some ability but can’t seem to mind his manners.

Race 14: Trackmaster 80 (NW L2/2L4 80.5/81.17) or less/Starters in TM 83.1 in 1 of last 2

(5) BET A BUNDLE gets a key class drop as last time he faced the red-hot Random Hanover. (2) POSH ONTHE BEACH made the front and went a big mile last time while pressured every step of the way. (9) AIR GUITAR dealt with all kinds of stretch traffic last week. He’s sharp and only needs a trip to be a player. (1) PASSA-GRILLE BEACH just missed last time with a great trip.