Meadowlands: Analysis for Saturday 3/20

MEET STATS: 133-25-16-21 / $121.60 (-$144.40)
BEST BETS: 10-6-0-1 / $20.00 (+0.00)
BEST BET: PIKACHU HANOVER (6th)
SPOT PLAY: INDEPENDENT ONE (9th)

Race 1: Non-winners $4,500 (NW L3 $5,500) in last 5/TM Rating 83.4 or less - Pick 5

(1) GOOD ROCKIN has been stuck in outside posts week after week and he finally sees the other side of the gate. Post one isn't ideal, but it should keep him much closer early, which is key considering that only two horses won from further back than fourth in 26 races last weekend. (5) HEZA REAL DIAMOND could be firing hard off the gate in this spot and it would be no surprise if he popped off a big mile. (2) LACHIE MAGUIRE N finished in front of the top pick with a similar final quarter last week. He's a player with the right trip.

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Race 2: Non-winners 2 (NW L3 3) or $20,000 (NW L3 $22,500) life

After watching some replays and reviewing the past performances it is clear that any of the seven in this field could win. With that, I'm going to look to a possible longshot in (5) POCKET WATCH N. He kept up nicely in a very quick qualifying mile and now gets a catch-driver in the bike. Notice that 1:52 win back in November at Dover. (3) GRETZKY rallied well from far back in his qualifier. The only question is whether he'll be tight enough off that mile. (4) MOXLEY ships down from Canada where he was successful on smaller tracks. This is a test but one he could pass. (1) TORONTO closed from an impossible spot in his lone qualifier in a race that was won by first-out winner Always B Dancin.

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Race 3: Non-winners $7,500 (NW L3 $9,000) in last 5/TM Rating 81.75 or less - Survivor 7

(4) STELLENBOSCH gets some needed class relief this week, though this isn't the easiest NW7500 field. (2) ITS MESMERISE N and (3) WESTERN SHOWGIRL both show plenty of good lines in this class but are coming off races where they tired badly. Did they tie-up? Did they choke down? Was it something else?

Race 4: Non-winners $7,500 (NW L3 $8,500) in last 5 or 5 races life

(6) ROCK OF CASHEL lacked a knockout punch versus a much better group last week. Whether this 11-year-old still has what it takes to win in this condition is up in the air, but he seems worth another shot. (2) DOUBLE ACCOUNT drops out of the same race as the top pick and he had a bad post that night; clear contender. (3) LOOK IN MY EYES was racing well when last seen here but certainly finds a better bunch this time; up to the task? (5) MEADOWBRANCH RICKY is an exotics player for sure and one who could step up given the right circumstances.

Race 5: Non-winners $10,500 (NW L3 $12,500) in last 5 or 7 races life

I don't feel strongly about (3) ALWAYS AND AGAIN because there is certainly a chance he'll be overbet in this spot. That said, this race seems to set up nicely for him, so hopefully we'll get 2-1 or higher. (6) ESCAPETOTHEBEACH has big early speed on a track that has been favoring that style. He steps up in class but is more than fast enough to handle these. (9) JESSE DUKE N didn't care for the smaller track at Yonkers and broke. If he gets the right setup, a win here is within the realm of possibility.

Race 6: Non-winners $15,000 (NW L3 $17,500) in last 5 or 9 races life - $50K GTD Pick 4

(4) PIKACHU HANOVER took a ton of early money but just couldn't get by the talented 4YO Get Legs or the classy veteran Mission Accepted last time. This field is slightly easier and a win seems well within his grasp. (3) PAT MATTERS has posted some huge miles at Dover. She returns after a six-week break and one has to wonder whether she'll be firing her best shot. If she looks sharp in the post parade, add her to your Pick 4 tickets. (8) KENZIESKY HANOVER is like an ATM that doesn't dish out $100s and you have to settle for a bunch of $20s. She has good early speed and is right there each week, but don't expect too many wins.

Race 7: Non-winners $7,500 (NW L3 $8,650) in last 5 or 1 race since 7/13/20 or $41,000 life

(4) BIGONPERSONALITY N was plenty short versus a better field in his first start since September. This group is more in his comfort zone and he should certainly be tighter now. (6) STONEDUST raced well in defeat last time but he probably should've won. Let's face it, he just doesn't like to win much anymore. (1) LYONS KING certainly fits in this field, but the barn has been a bit "off" lately at all tracks and might be dealing with some sickness. If you see one race big, jump on them all. (8) SAYING GRACE N the bias towards horses being near the lead was too strong for him to win last week. He's clearly a player with a smooth trip.

Race 8: Non-winners $10,500 (NW L3 $12,500) in last 5 or 7 races life - Pick 6

(1) DELTASUN A was a bit disappointing in this class last week, but overall I'd say this is a slightly softer group and I'm willing to give him another shot. (4) HENDERSON SEELSTER comes off a break without his regular driver Andy Miller and he isn't driving this week either, which is a concern. The class drop is sizable; mixed feelings. (7) PATRIARCH HANOVER qualified back sharply for his 4-year-old debut. This isn't an easy spot against older foes but I wouldn't be shocked if he is up to the task.

Race 9: Play Meadowlands Final

(2) INDEPENDENT ONE and (5) CRUZING HILL both had smooth trips and finished up very willingly last week, but since the latter has won two straight he'll be much shorter on the toteboard. Independent One, a four-time winner at The Big M last year, looks like a very live price play while Cruzing Hill seems like a play-against. (8) SUGARTOWN was used hard to set up the win for the former last Saturday. With a slightly easier trip he should be a viable win option. (4) VICTORIAS MAVERICK has been solid each of his last three starts and would be no shock in this spot.

Race 10: Non-winners $15,000 (NW L3 $17,500) in last 5 or $100,000 life - $50K GTD Pick 4

(2) ASHLEY LOCAZ N is the rare time when driver selection is playing a major role in my selection. An accomplished Down Under performer, this guy hasn't shown much yet here, but Dexter Dunn elected to choose him over a much sharper #8 and a classy #7. (8) COLOSSAL STRIDE A continues to impress, beating a strong field last week. This is another difficult task but he seems sharp enough to overcome anything. (3) DECISION DAY has put in a couple of dull efforts in recent weeks. I'd like to see him fire off the gate here. Is he good enough right now? (7) FRANCO TOTEM N qualified with a strong late rally. If he is ready, there is no reason he can't roll by this field. (5) LEXUS WITH A VIEW A has looked good in two starts on these shores. Is he this good?

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Race 11: Non-winners $4,500 (NW L3 $5,500) in last 5/TM Rating 83.4 or less

(3) THE CANDYMAN CAN visited the basement and destroyed his competition last week. With that confidence-builder under his belt, I'd expect a repeat effort. (4) BARRAGE HANOVER was dead game in his second start of the year and might just be overlooked a bit in the wagering again. (6) CLIFFHANGER, (8) EDDARD HANOVER and (9) GENERAL JOY A are all capable sorts if given the right trip.

Race 12: $12,500/$15,000 Claiming Handicap

(4) SO SO DE VIE tends to do his best work close to the pace and was at the back on a more speed-favoring track last weekend. Let's look for a more aggressive steer this time. (5) POKERFACE BLUECHIP went a brutal mile last week. Dunn takes over the drive and hopefully the trip will work out better as well. (1) MIKE'S POWERHOUSE improved on the barn change despite being used hard early in the race. (7) MY ALPHA ROCK N benefitted from a quick pace last time and I'm not sure I'd want a shorter price now since he'll need pace help again.

Race 13: Non-winners $2,500 (NW L3 $3,000) in last 5/TM Rating 74 or less

(4) THNDRFRMTHETHRON N has fallen to the basement condition and actually seems to be in decent form. Let's expect a strong mile. (1) PASSA-GRILLE BEACH has followed a similar path to the top pick as a class-dropper and also comes off a decent mile; hard to toss. (8) PALOMAR fell to this level last time and just missed; another threat. (6) ELITE RETREAT faced some tough fields in his last two starts here and didn't exactly get lucky in this NW2500. He might have to wait a week even if he perks up.