Meadowlands

Meadowlands: Analysis for Saturday 3/12

Derick Giwner|Mar 10, 2022

MEET STATS: 194-45-29-26 / $290.20 (-$97.80)

BEST BETS: 14-7-2-2 / $27.00 (-1.00)

SPOT PLAYS: 14-4-2-2 / $30.20 (+$2.20)

BEST BET: WRAPPERS DELIGHT A (1st)

SPOT PLAY: DA DELIGHTFUL (11th)

Race 1: $35,000-$50,000 Claiming Handicap - Pick 5

(4) WRAPPERS DELIGHT A wasn't going to win first-over versus a much tougher group last weekend. The waters are calmer here and early speed seems highly likely from this guy. (5) BARBADOS has been done in by bad posts lately and should offer a good price in this spot. (1) WAY TO CLOSE has been right there week after week. He'll likely be in the exotics and his win chances depend on trip.

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Race 2: Winners 1-2 races or $32,500 life/Maidens draw inside

(4) LEDGES was stuck behind a tired foe, didn't clear until the stretch and finished with plenty of trot in the tank on March 4. Four-year-old son of Muscle Hill kept his act together in that start for new connections and might just be ready to realize his talent. (5) BIRDMAN has been chasing better foes in recent weeks after a powerful start to his year. This field should suit him nicely and Tetrick stuck here (perhaps to be loyal to Cullipher) over the top pick. (1) EMMA TALKING is a Chapter Seven-sired 3-year-old who qualified back strongly. At this point who knows how good he is.

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Race 3: Non-winners $4,500 (NW L3 $4,995) in last 5 or 1 race in 2022/TM 82.15 or less - Survivor 7

(7) DECISION DAY caught a revitalized Ana Afreet last week and simply had no chance to win. Like a few others, he drops again this week to the lowest level he has seen since May 2019 (he won). It would be a surprise if he didn't show up with a strong effort. (4) BOBCAT BAY also takes a dip down the class ladder after a no-shot mile from post 10. (5) ROCKEYED OPTIMIST has been sharper of late and only needs a decent trip to be involved. (10) HEZA REAL DIAMOND fired off the wings of the gate and finished second when last in this condition. (8) FATHER NUNO is another class-dropper who would be no surprise in the winner's circle.

Race 4: Non-winners $7,500 (NW L3 $8,250) in last 5/TM 81.5 (NW L3/5 82/82.5) or less

(2) KNIGHT ANGEL may be a bit of a reach at first look despite the class drop, but his most recent start was coming off a three-week break in action and following a break. There is every reason to believe that Team Bongiorno could have this guy ready to roll from the improved post. (5) STORMONT VENTNOR was a first-over winner when last seen in this condition. (7) CHIPLOSIVE comes out of the same race as the top pick and finished ahead of him that night.

Race 5: Winners 5-7 (NW L3 8) races or $80,000 life

Very few horses in this race would be a major surprise on the win end, so let's try one that should offer a price. (3) MYSWEETBOYMAX took quite a few shots in Grand Circuit races last year and actually was second in the Milstein. Now 4, he had a solid comeback race and only needs to improve slightly off that to win. (4) BAYFIELD BEACH has made over $300,000 in his career while perhaps never fully realizing his potential. While the qualifier wasn't sparkling, Burke usually sends them out ready. (6) ULTIMAROCA has big speed and perhaps a conditioning edge on some of these. (1) PRETTY RICKI has been worse than second only once in seven starts this year.

Race 6: $60,000-$75,000 Claiming Handicap - $50K GTD Pick 4

(4) FABRIZIO N was spinning his wheels a bit along the pylons but kicked in nicely when angled late last week. Andrew Harris seems to have this guy moving in the right direction and ripe for an upset. (1) MOTIVE HANOVER and (6) DE LOS CIELOS DEO finished a neck apart in first and second in this class last Saturday and figure prominently again in a race that seems to lack a ton of early pace options.

Race 7: $20,000-$25,000 Claiming Handicap

(1) MANHATTAN BEACH wasn't going anywhere from an outside post last time versus Ana Afreet. Veteran switches back to the claiming ranks and should be in position to win for Gingras. (5) WINDSONG JACK was super last time for a barn that never seems to lose anymore. (7) ALLGONOWHOA was a bit flat late in his first start for a new barn. He could be interesting in this spot if McCarthy leaves off the gate hard. (9) COOL MAN BLUES has been rallying nicely of late and will likely need to pass them all here.

Race 8: Non-winners $20,000 in last 5 or 10 races life/Non-starters in 2022 draw outside - Pick 6

(3) ANA AFREET N found his mojo last week when he went down the road in a sizzling 1:49 3/5. He triple jumps in class now and Tetrick jumps ship for #2, but the class hike means nothing if he is back to himself. (4) MY PAL JOE lands here since they didn't card a NW140000 this week. He was trapped in until too late last Saturday and should be a big factor here. (1) NO LOU ZING reunites with Zeron and has an upset chance if things go his way.

Race 9: TrackMaster 80.6 Series Final

(7) MONTY MONO went a monster mile in defeat last time as the only horse from the barn on the weekend that failed to finish first or second. He's got the early speed to make the top and if the form remains intact, the rest are in trouble. (9) WINNING LINC was a sharp winner in his second start for this stable and (4) MACHDAVID a fast-closing second. Both are players given any reasonable trip. (1) RUTHLESS DUDE completes the Estrada/Johnson superfecta for me in this final. Gelding has been first or second in each of his last four starts.

Race 10: Preferred/Non-winners $20,000 (Not 3rd L3 $22,151) in last 5 - $50K GTD Pick 4

(7) LOVEDBYTHEMASSES is certainly the best horse in the race at this point in their careers. He's beaten the main contenders (#'s 4 and 5) in 2022 and seems to be on an "every 25 days" schedule as he awaits stakes season. (4) JL CRUZE just missed to (5) YANKS DUGOUT last weekend and these two figure to be controlling the race here. Either could upset if the top pick is kept too far out of it.

Race 11: Non-winners $10,500 in last 5/TM 87.1 (NW L3/5 87.5/88) or less

(6) DA DELIGHTFUL won in this class two starts back and had plenty of pace last time while blocked with no shot. He could offer some value here. (7) OCEAN RIDGE N was second behind Ana Afreet last time and if you've been reading my analysis that name has come up a lot. This guy is moving up a level but seems very capable. (2) NUTCRACKER SWEET could try a speed mission tonight on the engine.

Race 12: TrackMaster 77.5 Series Final

(5) GAME OF CHANGE is another Estrada trainee who is in raging form. If he shows up with a similar effort to his last two, he wins. (2) ROCKABILLY CHARM is clearly feeling good right now and he actually ran into some stretch traffic last week. (10) JUST WAVE GOODBYE has the speed to gun off the gate for position and if he makes the front without working too hard, an exotic slot is very possible.

Race 13: Non-winners $2,500 (NW L3/5 $2,750/$2,975) in last 5

(4) DUDDIE'S LOR has a nice four-race foundation now after a long layoff and if he is going to find his form anytime soon, this seems like the moment. (5) PET SUR ROC wasn't awful last time and Tetrick joins the team this week. (1) CAPTAINOFROCKNROLL went a tough trip last time and was stuck in post 9 the start prior. He could be worth a look here. (10) STICK WITH CRAMER left hard from post 10 the last time out in this class and could certainly employ similar tactics here.