Meadowlands: Analysis for Saturday 3/11

WINTER MEET STATS: 220-55-44-28 / $354.40 (-$85.60)

BEST BETS: 16-3-6-2 / $22.20 (-9.80)

SPOT PLAYS: 16-3-2-1 / $23.00 (-$9.00)

BEST BET: GIVE US AWAVE A (4th)

SPOT PLAY: MYSWEETBOYMAX (6th)

Race 1: $12,500-$15,000 Claiming Handicap - Pick 5

(6) LENWOODS REAL DEAL has turned up with big miles when in for a claiming tag in the past. Without much obvious early speed to his inside, he should make the top and work out a good trip. (7) FOX VALLEY CARLIN was just even in his debut for this barn and certainly deserves a second look in start two with a catch-driver in the bike. (1) SOUTHWIND DREDGE is riding a three-race winning streak. (5) ONLYTHETUFFSURVIVE is worth at least a look in the score-down on the trainer and driver change angles.

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Race 2: Non-winners $10,500 (NW L3 $11,630) in last 5 or $75,000 life

(5) WHOLE LOTTA LOU handled the bump in class last time and is simply in sharp form right now. Ideally he'll be fired to the front and roll down the road. (2) LOVE YOUR WORK A faces the softest field he has seen since coming to these shores. We'll learn more about him here. (8) AS ALWAYS wasn't great last time but has proven he can handle this class. Maybe the switch to Gingras will shake him up.

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Race 3: $20,000-$27,000 Claiming Handicap - Survivor 7

(5) BOILER MAKER has proven he can win in this class and now enters a barn that has shown the ability to get more out of horses off the claim. (2) BETTER THAN SOME is another changing stables and this barn is 3-for-5 on the meet. Horse is also in fine form. (7) BIZYS BEATLE rallied impressive off fast fractions last time but has proven capable near the lead as well. (6) GOOD ROCKIN doesn't always bring his best to the track but he can certainly win if he feels like it.

Race 4: Non-winners $3,000 (NW L3 $3,300) in last 5

If you chart the course of (6) GIVE US AWAVE A since he arrived in the U.S. there are many legitimate excuses. Last time he paced home willingly after sitting last from post 8 at Freehold in his first try in a month. Notice he was 4-5 in a higher class here at the start of January. There is more here than meets the eye at first glance. (2) GENTLEMANJIM II IE displayed some signs of life from the back of the pack last time out. Class drop here should only help. (1) LITERL LAD HANOVER enjoyed the class relief last weekend and was a credible third. He can get another piece tonight.

Race 5: Non-winners $10,500 in last 5 or 5 races life/TM 85.5 or less

(2) A NEW LEADER sticks in the same class but catches a slightly softer overall group this week and draws inside now. Notice he beat potential favorite (8) FRANK THE ELDER, who seems likely to be showing early speed and is an obvious contender, a few starts back. (7) WILY WALLY chased in a pretty quick return qualifier. That mile should have him tight and everything from this barn seems to be firing.

Race 6: TrackMaster 91 (NW L2 92.28) or less - $50K GTD Pick 4

(5) MYSWEETBOYMAX was stuck in the Open last time and had no realistic chance. His prior start in this class - despite an outside post - was fine. Stratton chose off as expected due to barn loyalty, but Miller is a fine replacement. (9) LIVINTHEBEACHLIFE ran into a monster in Soaring Now last time. That foe is nowhere to be found this week. (3) ACTON HANOVER overcame post 10 versus easier a week ago. He's a trip player here. (7) JIMMY CONNOR B has every right to improve in his second start off the bench and for the new barn; adds Tetrick! (4) ADRIANO HANOVER stepped up with a big mile last Saturday; using underneath.

Race 7: TrackMaster 86.5 (NW L3/2L5 87/88.11) or less

There really are no standouts in this field and we'll look for (1) LADYFORD DOLLAR GB to jump up from the inside post. He was short last time after missing a few weeks. This is a great spot. (4) TRUFFLE DOG has been fairly consistent and is a smooth trip away his first win of the year. (5) DUDDIE'S LOR was used early and stopped last time. Let's expect off-the-pace tactics now.

Race 8: Non-winners $7,500 in last 5 - Pick 6

(3) HIGH BALLER remains at a reduced level and gets some post relief as well. I have to think all systems will be on GO here. (2) LETS ROLL has always been a favorite horse of mine because he tends to be live at a price. This looks like one of those prime spots. (6) PARMESAN N broke in his return but is very capable against this type if right.

Race 9: Open 2-Open 1 Trot Handicap

(5) MISSISSIPPI STORM rallied nicely last time to be fourth in his first start in three months. While this 8-year-old isn't the "best" horse in the race, he should improve with that start under his belt and is versatile enough to win from on or off the pace. Perhaps it is also worth noting that post 5 is dominating at the meet with a 19.3 win rate, nearly 5 points higher than the next closest post (6). (9) RICH AND MISERABLE and (8) AHUNDREDDOLLARBILL finished one-two last week in the Open and either could win again.

Race 10: Open 1 Pace - $50K GTD Pick 4

(4) BELMONT ROYALE N was in full flight late in the mile last week in his initial start with Lasix added. Was that a sign of things to come? I'd like to believe so but only if the price is right. (1) SOUTHWIND GENDRY had a sub-par 4-year-old season and now he is back at age 5 with perhaps a renewed vigor for victory. The qualifier was good and as long as he isn't overbet I'll be using him. (5) BRUNHAM BOY N has gone his best miles on the big track and he's back there tonight. (10) CARBINE is certainly fast enough and it simply comes down to whether he's put in play. Though it is worth noting that Dunn chose #5.

Race 11: TrackMaster 80.5 (NW L3/2L5 81/81.5) or less/TM 83.5 (NW L3 84) or less draw outside

This is a tight-knit group with many possible winners. (9) ART SCAPING has won his last two tries in this class at 28-1 and 10-1. He should offer more than fair value once again tonight. (8) LOUIE ships east now in the Burke barn after climbing the ladder at The Meadows. If he can repeat his latest effort the rest of these are in trouble. (2) THNDRFRMTHETHRON N gets Zeron back in the bike this week and he got a good second from last the last time driving in this condition. (7) RAPTORS FLIGHT N came away on top in the TM80 condition last weekend. This field looks tougher overall but he’s capable.

Race 12: Non-winners $5,000 (NW L3 $5,500) in last 5

(4) THE CLAW has been dropping every week and burning money in search of form. Has he finally found his comfort zone? (1) REAL PEACE also moves down a bit and finds a field without a clear standout; capable. (10) BOBCAT BAY has his work cut out for him from post 9 but is more than fast enough on paper.

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Race 13: TrackMaster 77.5 (NW L3/2L5 78/78.5) or less Series

(8) DENMARK SEELSTER and (7) MARCUS SEELSTER both rolled to victory on trainer change angles last week. If either can come close to repeating those miles, one of them will win. (1) DOCTOR BUTCH can sit close and get a nice piece. I believe this may be his last start before going to stud duty in Virginia.

Race 14: TrackMaster 74.5 (NW L3/2L5/10 75/75.53/76) or less Series

(2) APPLE VALLEY ART had bad cover and gained nicely while still out-kicked for second last weekend. With a couple of open length winners from last week returning, we should get nice value and hopefully a better trip. (11) ALWAYS A PANTHER romped ahead of the top pick last out and the only question with him this week is the second-tier post. (9) MAGRITTE responded to the trainer and driver changes last time at Freehold. Veteran is classy enough to win and is another who could offer a very fair price. (8) VAN DIESEL came up with a mile I wasn't expecting last Friday. Can he do it again? Will he save his best for the final next week?