Meadowlands: Analysis for Saturday 2/4

WINTER MEET STATS: 109-23-21-18 / $152.40 (-$65.60)

BEST BETS: 8-0-5-2 / $0.00 (-16.00)

SPOT PLAYS: 8-1-1-1 / $5.00 (-$11.00)

BEST BET: RESTAURANT BILLY (1ST)

SPOT PLAY: SUNDOWN KID (13TH)

Race 1: $25,000-$33,000 Claiming Handicap - Pick 5

(4) RESTAURANT BILLY drops in for a much cheaper claiming tag and draws an ideal post. Four-year-old should be primed for a big mile. (7) MACHIAVELLI figured to be short last time after missing six weeks of action. Expect him to fire off the gate and give the top one a tussle. (6) SECRECY is back in for a tag where he belongs; using underneath with some win appeal. (8) BOILER MAKER moves into a live barn but drew into a tough race from a tough post.

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Race 2: Non-winners 2 (NW L3 or TM 76 or less 3) races life/Maidens draw inside

(7) A DEAL'S A DEAL picked up his game with Lasix added but simply got caught up in a fast mile last time from too far back. This race is unlikely to go that speed. (4) MIGHT BE RIGHT finished just behind the top pick last time while chasing the fast fractions; Lasix added! (3) IDIOSYNCRATIC qualified back well for Burke/Gingras.

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Race 3: $20,000 Claiming - Survivor 7

(5) THANOS displayed extreme determination in victory last week and seems worth following. (8) MIDNIGHT DAY comes out of the same race as the top pick and raced very well as well. (2) BIZYS BEATLE has a number of wins at this 20K level and if the new barn keeps him going, he'll have a say in the outcome.

Race 4: Non-winners $14,000 (NW L4 $15,400) in last 5 or 6/NW 8 races life

(1) HARRY KNOWS IR doesn't look like the biggest horse around but he sure scooted around the track impressively in his qualifier. Any small step forward off that mile makes him tough here. (4) GOTWUTEVERITTAKES jumps up two classes but has a history of being able to handle it. (6) EUROBOND is probably the best horse in the field but he might need a start to be on his game.

Race 5: Winners 2-4 (NW L3 5) races or $50,000 (NW L2 $60,000) life/Opt. $50,000 Claiming

(6) PHOENIX OF FLUZZY went a big mile in defeat last time and seems to have turned a corner; Gingras' choice of the Burke horses. (7) AMERICAN CLASSIC tightened up nicely to be second behind Jimmy Freight and he really hasn't missed so much time that he can't be right there with these. (8) SPORTY M THREE went his best mile yet last weekend but Gingras did go with #6; good replacement driver, though.

Race 6: Big Game TM 89.55 (NW L2/2L5/2L10 90/90.6/91) or less Series - $50K GTD Pick 4

(1) MYSWEETBOYMAX has been put into play by Stratton each week and he keeps delivering at good odds. I'm getting on the bandwagon late but why not? (7) CAVIART LUCA got another pretty easy mile last time. Does Gingras fire him out here? (2) BALLERAT BOOMERANG was huge last week and everything being sent out by this barn now seems to be fired up; hard to ignore.

Race 7: Winners over $10,500 in last 5 or $50,000 life Handicap

(4) DON’T FENCE ME IN took a shot on the engine last time which tells me he’s moving in the right direction. Classy 4-year-old gets another shot from me. (9) ALWAYS B FIRST went a career-best mile when last here and this barn sent out a winner last weekend; dangerous. (5) LOUISIANA GB has put in three qualifiers to prepare for his U.S. debut and Dunn is listed to drive. I’m not sure he’s this good but it is hard to ignore his 15-13-2-0 record.

Race 8: Big Game TM 89.55 (NW L2/2L5/2L10 90/90.6/91) or less Series - Pick 6

(1) SERIOUSLY HANOVER is going to win this race if he comes up with a repeat performance of last time. That said, he's erratic and might blow up. (4) DECISION DAY really hasn't been bad and none of the rest jump off the page from my perspective. I'd take a shot here at big odds. (6) NOME HANOVER won at first asking for the new barn. Will he find early speed here?

Race 9: Non-winners $10,500 (NW 2L5 $11,941) in last 5

(9) PJ LOU came off the bench and immediately paid dividends for Team Bongiorno. Four-year-old has ability and he might get overlooked on the class hike from the outside post. (5) TORONTO has a history of being a fast horse and after a long dry spell he finally made it back to the winner's circle. Don't be shocked if he strings wins together. (1) UNDRTHSOUTHRNSUN N has big early speed and is always in the number lately. Dunn driving means a lower price, likely. (8) CAVEMAN A raced steadily with Lasix added last time; class drop.

Race 10: Winners over $10,500 in last 5 - $50K GTD Pick 4

(3) CARBINE has been climbing the ladder with no problems thus far and we know how fast he can be when at his best. Best of all, he should be in good early position and offer fair value. (7) BURNHAM BOY N was spectacular in his first start on these shores and it is hard not to use him in this spot. (4) LOCHINVAR ART A was a special horse Down Under earning over $1 million. The qualifier was good and I'd consider using him at the right price. (5) BELMONT ROYALE N hasn't thrown in many bad races. (8) NICHOLAS BEACH would be very tough if ready to fire. I'll be watching the warm-ups closely.

Race 11: Non-winners $7,500 (NW L3 $8,250) in last 5

(4) ROCKIN THE ACES dropped to this condition last Saturday but was saddled with an outside post. He came home in 25 4/5 that night behind an impressive import that bumped right into the top class tonight (race 10). With (3) BAILEYS ROCK N getting Dunn in the bike on a class drop and (1) MISTER SPOT A coming off a lifetime best mile, the top pick could offer nice value.

Race 12: TrackMaster 83.5 (NW L3/2L5 84/84.5) or less

(7) REAL PEACE was steady in his Burke barn debut while facing slightly better. I'm guessing we'll see some improvement in his second start since November. (9) ROCKIN MARTY A also raced evenly last week when making his first start on these shores. This barn typically goes easy with them in their initial try after importing. (3) ANDRES HANOVER lands a good post where he can settle in and hopefully pick up cover.

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Race 13: Non-winners $5,000 in last 5

(2) SUNDOWN KID drops for the fourth straight start and really hasn't been that bad in his last two. Check out the competition he has been facing - Burnham Boy (race 10), Mysweetboymax (race 6) and My Pal Joe - who are all racing way up in class. This finally looks like a spot where he can make his presence felt. (1) DUDDIE'S LOR moves to the inside of the gate and gets a similar class drop as the top pick. (8) KING JAMES EXPRESS finished a length behind #2 last time in his first start since October. The question is whether he can fire off the gate to gain position. He's done it when in good form.

Race 14: TrackMaster 80.5 (NW L3/2L5 81/81.5) or less

(4) HOMESTRETCH WES has turned the corner for new trainer Michael Russo and Marcus Miller is a nice fit for this guy. (1) WINDSONG JACK worked out a golden trip and sealed the deal a week ago. Post one should allow him to stick close again and perhaps get another smooth trip. (8) LENWOODS REAL DEAL comes off a win and enters a capable barn. (10) JK WILL POWER also scored last time out and he's started to come into form. Big class rise shouldn't be an issue for this classy veteran.