Meadowlands: Analysis for Saturday 1/6

FINAL FALL MEET STATS: 195-56-25-30 / $287.20 (-$102.80)

BEST BETS: 14-9-1-0 / $32.10 (+$4.10)

SPOT PLAYS: 12-3-1-1 / $11.60 (-$12.40)

BEST BET: JILLIBY DYNAMITE A (9^th)

SPOT PLAY: FIKA TIME (11^th)

Race 1: $15,000 Claiming - Pick 5

(4) LYONS PRIDE has proven what he can do over this surface with multiple wins in 2023. Five-year-old turned in a decent mile after missing a few weeks following a scratched-injured line and can show more drawing inside the other potential early speed players. (6) CRACK A SMILE dropped in for this claiming tag last time and was never involved from an outside post. He doesn't win often but can make some noise versus this group. (7) SMOKIN BY N could be the favorite here as he drops a notch for a high percentage barn, but his last big-track win came in January 2022.

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Race 2: Trackmaster 80 (NW L2/2L4 80.5/81) or less - Survivor 7

(4) WAR OF WILL has been razor sharp since moving into this barn, just like just about every horse from this stable. He lands in a good spot this week without too much early speed to his outside and should set up with a nice trip. (1) FRANK DEFORD couldn't quite get down from the New England area last week and was scratched. He seems like a fit here if the trip works out. (3) KING OF ACES is another with some early speed. He missed by just a head in this class last time. (2) SEEUINNASHVILLE A is a steady player in this class who could trip-out from the inside post.

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Race 3: $15,000 Claiming

(3) LOVIN ON YOU was a 6-5 winner in this class two weeks back and he certainly looks primed for a repeat effort from the inside post. (9) WESTERN PERCH was used hard and paid the price upon arrival. He's been given a few weeks to turn things around and may just do it without much speed to his inside. (7) IDEAL STAR N has been saddled with outside posts of late while racing reasonably well; trip player.

Race 4: $20,000-$30,000 Claiming Handicap - Pick 8

(7) MARCUS SEELSTER turned in a pretty good effort last time considering how hot the pace was in that race, and if you look at his lines, he’s been close in fast races week after week. He drops in for a tag here and should be put in play; needs less company up front. (10) AS ALWAYS comes out of the same race as the top one and raced very well considering he was wide on the first turn and parked every step. He’s a major player here despite the post. (9) I’M SOME GRADUATE comes to town with good form and owns plenty of back class.

Race 5: $40,000-$50,000 Claiming

Sometimes it makes sense to roll the dice and (4) GLACIS should provide a strong reward if he can deliver. This guy finally got a reasonable pace to chase upon leaving Yonkers and he delivered with a career-best mile. The pace is certain to be quick here since (10) BOILING OAR is coming off a mile where he went 1:21 1/5 to three quarters. If he can repeat that mile and staying power, the rest are in trouble. (5) SUGAR ME N also has early speed and his best puts him in the picture despite the bump up in claiming price.

Race 6: Non-winners $14,000 (NW 2L4 $15,400) in last 4/TM 89.5 or less - $50K GTD Pick 4

(1) MY PAL JOE went off as the chalk in this class last week and wound up stuck in the three hole while completely blocked in the lane. His luck only needs to be better this week to have a big win chance and getting the "Buckeye" in the bike won’t hurt. (5) STONE HANOVER was in over his head last time. This field is up his alley and McCarthy chose here over the top pick. (2) VINTAGE CHEDDAR N was just even from an outside post a week ago; moves inside.

Race 7: Non-winners $7,500 (NW L2 $8,250) in last 4/TM 83.5 (NW L2/2L4 84/84.5) or less

(4) GOOD DEAL has been closing well with no shot in races that have gone pretty quick. The class drop here could be just what he needs to seal the deal. (8) DOUBLE METAL missed by a head in this class last weekend; big threat again. (2) C-BET HANOVER also gets class relief for a barn that excels when their horses move down the ladder. (6) UNDRTHSOUTHRNRUN N qualified sharply; McCarthy’s choice of five horses.

Race 8: Winners 2-4 (NW 2L7 5) races or $50,000 life/Opt. $50,000 Clm. - Pick 6

(5) OAKWOOD ARDAN IR has been super in two races since shipping across the Atlantic Ocean. This field represents a class rise but he seems up to the task. (2) THIRD PILLAR was trapped at the back and finished in full flight late in the mile. There could be some value with this guy. (6) VENTURESOME ARDEN N is also perfect in two starts since coming to America and he has big gate speed; dangerous.

Race 9: Non-winners $10,000 in last 4/TM 86.5 (NW L2/2L4 87/87.5) or less

(7) JILLIBY DYNAMITE A gets some needed class relief and more importantly adds Miller. This guy’s best is too much for this group. (10) MYRICAL GENIUS A reunites with Jordan Stratton and adds Lasix. Don’t be surprised if he brings a big mile. (1) OAKWOOD PADDY IR is certainly in the best form in the race; fast enough?

Race 10: Winners over $10,000 in last 4 Handicap - $50K GTD Pick 4

(7) QUEEN OF SUCCESS sat off a rather slow pace and came home very willingly with no chance of getting home first. Any more reasonable trip should give her a big chance of success. (5) ALEXA SKYE hasn’t been on the big track in a while and may’ve needed that last start to get down to speed. (4) TONY’S MOM closed very well to be second behind the top pick when last in action.

Race 11: Non-winners $7,500 (NW L2 $8,250) in last 4/TM 83.5 (NW L2/2L4 84/84.5) or less

(1) FIKA TIME is a quality horse that had gone a long time between on-track appearances and likely needed the start a week ago. He lands in a good spot here to sit just off the pace and pounce. (3) BEACH CHIEF couldn’t be any sharper and you know he’ll be in tactical position with his early speed. (6) TOMAS doesn’t look great on paper, but outside posts and tougher competition has a way of making lines look worse than they are in reality. A wake-up call is certainly possible here.

Race 12: Non-winners $3,000 (NW L2 $3,300) in last 4

(2) WHOLE LOTTA LOU gets his fourth class drop this week but really can’t be faulted for lack of performance last time when he chased a very slow pace. This is a very winnable spot. (7) DANCE IT OUT reached this condition last weekend and put in a big mile in defeat; very playable. (1) DA DELIGHTFUL really has no excuses for losing last time and at this point you have to think maybe he’s lost a step. Still, the class is there. (4) STRAIGHT UP COOL is another one of the class-droppers in this field and he moves into a new barn. Think you need him on your Pick 4 tickets.

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Race 13: Non-winners $5,000 (NW L2 $5,500) in last 4

(1) SLING SHOCK was raced aggressively two starts back and tired after fast fractions. Last time he was even from the back of the pack. Now the trainer puts up a Hall of Fame catch-driver on the class drop and I’d expect we’ll see what he has in the tank. (3) OREGON TRAIL gets post and class relief; could awaken. (8) BRUTALLYHANDSOME A didn’t fire in his first start on these shores but I wouldn’t discount his chances too quickly.

Race 14: Non-winners 2 (NW L2 3) races or $20,000 life/Maidens draw inside

(5) MIDNIGHT THUNDER was used to the front, chased honest fractions and wound up second best behind a 1-5 shot last Saturday. He should be able to shine in this spot. (6) EL YERNO saved ground in the same race and finished well while never able to get past the top pick; upset chance. (9) SPEED SNIP gets a condition shift and should be competitive in here on his best.