Meadowlands: Analysis for Saturday 1/20

MEET STATS: 28-9-2-3 / $33.60 (-$22.40)

BEST BETS: 2-2-0-0 / $8.20 (+$4.20)

SPOT PLAYS: 2-1-0-0 / $4.20 (+$.20)

BEST BET: ITS SHOWTIME (11^th)

SPOT PLAY: NOX VEGAS BLUECHIP (12^th)

Race 1: $15,000 Claiming - Pick 5

(7) LOVIN ON YOU will need a bit of luck as he lacks the gate speed to make his own trip. That said, he’s the sharpest in the field by far and only needs to be within four of five lengths at the head of the lane to have a big shot. (5) ELM GROVE QWIGGLY and (3) THE BEST TYME EVER are two clear candidates to leave hard off the gate and there is a real chance they could get away with soft fractions. (1) FLASHY DUDE was a bit better in his first start for this barn; Miller drives tonight!

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Race 2: Trackmaster 77 (NW L2/2L4 77.5/78) or less - Survivor 7

This is a tricky race with a number of horses having missed five weeks and others getting new trainers. Let’s try (1) BIG BAD BILL, who drops a notch off a decent mile where the time looks slow but can’t be explained by adverse conditions. (7) CAPTAIN T HANOVER and (5) LIKE CLOCKWORK have both missed time but are moving into barns that tend to succeed here. (3) LYONS PRIDE raced ok when last seen and could be on the engine or in the pocket here.

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Race 3: Non-winners $3,000 in last 4

(5) CROWN HANOVER lacked a big kick last time but that was understandable given the four months on the sidelines. Barn was hot last weekend and perhaps they can keep it rolling. (8) BRUTALLYHANDSOME A gained five lengths in the stretch but it simply wasn’t enough on a windy night at the Big M. I’m not holding that effort against him. (6) HOPNROLL HEAVEN drops again in search of form and he really wasn’t bad last weekend. (7) DA DELIGHTFUL was David Miller’s choice over my top pick; food for thought.

Race 4: $15,000 Claiming - Pick 8

(5) POSH ON THE BEACH had trouble winning races in 2023 but this is a new year and he’s now in a new barn with a Hall of Fame driver at the lines. (7) INCREDIBLE BADGER has been stuck in some fast races since the barn change. Dropping in for a tag tonight, it may be worth taking a stab at good odds. (2) STICK WITH CRAMER reunites with Ahle, who finished second with him two starts back.

Race 5: Winners 2-4 (NW L2 5) races or $25,000 life/Opt. $50,000 Clm.

(4) OAKWOOD ARDAN IR moved up to this class last weekend and had little trouble with post 10. There is no reason to believe he’ll lose tonight. (9) ALL ALONE chased the winner home from an outside post himself a week ago. Sharp gelding might have to wait another week to get a win in this class. (3) THIRD PILLAR rallied from last to be third behind the top pair. Barn has been a bit sluggish in 2024 after a great end to 2023.

Race 6: Non-winners $7,500 in last 4 or $10,151 in last 6/TM 83.5 or less - $50K GTD Pick 4

(3) FIKA TIME was raced very conservatively last time and I guess that is understandable considering that it was just his second start in a year and a half. I’m not jumping ship on this guy just yet and here’s hoping he’s put in play this week. (2) FULL HORSE ships down from Canada and certainly seems to have the chops to go with this group. If you gave me 5-1 I would take a shot. (8) MARCUS SEELSTER has the speed to make the front from the outside post and enough form to hold on for an exotics slot. (1) ALWAYS B SWEET is down in class but I’d like to see this barn win a race before taking too short a price.

Race 7: Non-winners $12,500 in last 4 or 7 races life/TM 86.5 (NW L2 87) or less

(3) NO WIN NO FEED A hasn’t been great since coming back to The Meadowlands but should get more aggressive on the class drop tonight with co-owner Gingras showing up to drive his first race since mid-December. (6) SPEAK YOUR MIND could be one of the most interesting Calderone horses on the card since his new ones from Dover have done very good work. (8) KICKUPYAHEELS N was better than he looks on paper in that qualifier. The question is whether he’s ready to drop seven seconds tonight or whether his best will come next week with a class drop.

Race 8: $20,000-$30,000 Claiming Handicap - Pick 6

(2) SOMEWHERE ROCKIN is one of the sharpest horses in the field and certainly drew well for success. I don’t usually love Dover shippers but the fact that the “Buckeye” lands here is a big plus. (7) JUST PLAIN LOCO is another horse with form, and he also has early speed in his arsenal. That he shows up back here in for a claiming tag likely means we’ll see a very aggressive try. (10) GENTLEMANJIM II IE won this race last weekend from a better post. Veteran is a proven commodity.

Race 9: Non-winners $10,000 (NW L2 $11,000) in last 4 or $13,651 in last 6

This looks like a very competitive affair and perhaps we can get a decent mutuel on (7) STONEBRIDGE REEF as he rises in class tonight. Six-year-old is capable of winning at this level when right and he’s certainly feeling good now. (2) MIND HUNTER was used from an outside post and tired last week when he hit the wind in the stretch; moves inside. (6) REVOLT is capable of winning with any decent cover trip. (8) UNDRTHSOUTHRNSUN N won after a month on the sidelines and he can certainly come through again with a decent journey.

Race 10: $40,000-$50,000 Claiming Handicap - $50K GTD Pick 4

(8) MR DS ROCK left hard and chased a quick pace for the conditions last week. Notice he beat the two foes he was trying to keep up with in the mile. I’m expecting a much better effort this week. (5) REVOLVER N has been finishing well week after week and only needs a reasonable setup to have a chance. (7) LOORRIM LAKE A rolled first-over and got the job done last time.

Race 11: Trackmaster 80 (NW L2/2L4 80.5/81) or less

(5) ITS SHOWTIME returned from a five week vacation last Saturday and raced pretty well considering he started from post 10. Seven-year-old is plenty versatile and lands in an ideal spot this week. (3) SPEED SNIP was even last time in a pretty quick race and should bring a good effort here. (6) ONTO EL DORADO N has found some form at Freehold but still can’t get over the top with a win. Outside of the top pick this isn’t a tough spot and he can be along for an exotic placing.

Race 12: Non-winners $2,000 (NW L2 $2,200) in last 4

Before you poo-poo a horse shipping in from Batavia notice that (8) NOX VEGAS BLUECHIP earned the most money in the field last year. His qualifier was better than it looks as he was four deep into the first turn and uncovered much of the backstretch and into the final turn. (1) GENTLE GIANT took a shot last weekend and weakened some late. He drops in class tonight and should be sharper in his second start since late November. (7) STRAIGHT UP COOL was used early and lacked a late kick on a windy night as the 3-5 chalk in this condition; don’t ignore.

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Race 13: Non-winners $5,000 (NW L2 $5,500) in last 4

(2) RANDOM HANOVER was rolling home last weekend and just missed on the engine in his prior start. He faces a better field here but seems sharp enough to overcome. (3) HEZA REAL DIAMOND had no shot from post 10 most recently and couldn’t make a dent in a 1:50 3/5 mile before that. This race looks more doable for him. (8) HESTHERIGHTSTUFF is one of five horses in the field getting class relief. He’s stuck outside again but I wouldn’t be shocked if Miller took a shot with him leaving hard off the gate. (4) GOOD DEAL was racing well before the awful effort last week. I’m not holding that mile against him.

Race 14: $10,000-$12,500 Claiming Handicap

(6) LITTLE POWER is another from the Estrada barn returning from a five week break in action. He’s dropping in claiming price here versus a very soft field. If the others are live this weekend, back up the truck and unload. Otherwise, proceed with caution. (5) CONCUR wasn’t bad last weekend. That alone is good enough to be a contender here. (10) KASEY JOHN A has the early speed to overcome the bad post and should offer some value. (1) BEACHIN arrives from Monticello with great form but is a 6-year-old with only a 1:56 2/5 lifetime mark.