Meadowlands: Analysis for Saturday 1/13

FINAL FALL MEET STATS: 195-56-25-30 / $287.20 (-$102.80)

BEST BETS: 14-9-1-0 / $32.10 (+$4.10)

SPOT PLAYS: 12-3-1-1 / $11.60 (-$12.40)

BEST BET: MY PAL JOE (9^th)

SPOT PLAY: LYRICAL GENIUS A (7^th)

Race 1: $20,000-$30,000 Claiming Handicap - Pick 5

(10) AS ALWAYS comes out of the same race as #9 and raced very well considering he was wide on the first turn and parked every step. He’s a major player here dropping in for a tag despite the bad post. (9) MARCUS SEELSTER turned in a pretty good effort last time considering how hot the pace was in that race, and if you look at his lines, he’s been close in fast races week after week. He drops in for a tag here and should be put in play despite the post shift from 7 on last week’s canceled card to 9 tonight. (3) STOP STARING moves to the big track and perhaps that will help turn him around.

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Race 2: MLK Remembrance Pace for $15,000 Claimers - Survivor 7

(4) WESTERN PERCH hasn’t raced in four weeks but perhaps that time off will do some good for a horse that tired on the front after being used hard. Barn has been doing very well here and this guy seems likely to be put in play. (6) CRACK A SMILE dropped in for this claiming tag last time and was never involved from an outside post. He doesn’t win often but can make some noise versus this group. (8) THE BEST TYME EVER has some early speed if Tharps wants to use it and he’s one of the few who have been consistent for the 15K claiming tag.

Race 3: Non-winners $5,000 (NW L2 $5,681) in last 4

(4) OREGON TRAIL gets post and class relief, though many in this field can say that. He seems worth a try at a double digit mutuel. (1) UNDRTHSOUTHRNRUN N was in a higher class on last week’s canceled card. While he’s missed six weeks, the qualifier was sharp. (8) SLING SHOCK was raced aggressively two starts back and tired after fast fractions. Last time he was even from the back of the pack. Now the trainer puts up a catch-driver on the class drop and I’d expect we’ll see what he has in the tank; hard to toss despite the outside post, though David Miller chose #5. (3) BRUTALLYHANDSOME A didn’t fire in his first start on these shores but I wouldn’t discount his chances too quickly; notice Jordan Stratton is driving this week.

Race 4: MLK Remembrance Pace for $15,000 Claimers - Pick 8

Here’s a field loaded with potential early speed players and that plays right into the hoofs of (1) LOVIN ON YOU. He was a 6-5 winner in this class two weeks back and he certainly looks primed for a repeat effort. (5) STICK WITH CRAMER has a string of seconds in this class at Philly. If the driver can remain somewhat patient, he can take advantage of the likely hot pace. (4) BANK SEA shows mostly early speed but don’t be fooled into thinking that’s his only options. He fits this class nicely. (7) SMOKIN BY N drops a notch for a high percentage barn, but his last big track win came in January 2022.

Race 5: Non-winners $14,000 in last 4 or 8 races life

(4) PRIMO PADRE added Lasix last time and turned into a killer overnight. I’m willing to take a chance that he’s simply much better now assuming the price is right. (2) SONOFAMISTERY is one of those horses who could destroy this field or break. He’s very much an enigma. (5) NEXTROUNDSONME can fire off the gate or look for cover. Versatile gelding only needs a reasonable trip to threaten.

Race 6: Winners 2-4 (NW 2L7 5) races or $50,000 life/Opt. $50,000 Clm. - $50K GTD Pick 4

(10) OAKWOOD ARDAN IR has been super in two races since shipping across the Atlantic Ocean. This field represents a class rise and the post is awful, but he seems up to the task. (2) BARRIER moves in from post 10 on the scratched card last weekend and that certainly helps. Notice the last time David Miller drove this guy set a 1:51 lifetime mark. (6) THIRD PILLAR was trapped at the back and finished in full flight late in the mile. There could be some value with this guy. (9) VENTURESOME ARDEN N is also perfect in two starts since coming to America and he has big gate speed; dangerous.

Race 7: Non-winners $10,000 (NW L2 $11,601) in last 4/TM 86.5 (NW 2L4 87) or less/NW1 since 1/31/23

(9) LYRICAL GENIUS A reunites with Jordan Stratton and adds Lasix. I expect he’ll be pushing away off the gate and don’t be surprised if he brings a big mile. (3) OAKWOOD PADDY IR is certainly in the good form, as is (4) BEACH VIBES. Both merit serious consideration despite being up in class.

Race 8: $40,000-$50,000 Claiming Handicap - Pick 6

(10) BOILING OAR is coming off a mile where he went 1:21 1/5 to three quarters. If he can repeat that mile and staying power, the rest are in trouble. (4) GLACIS should provide a strong reward if he can deliver. This guy finally got a reasonable pace to chase upon leaving Yonkers and he delivered with a career-best mile. (9) MR DS ROCK is also very capable of firing off the gate and he could be sitting right behind his stablemate with a big chance to succeed.

Race 9: Non-winners $10,000 (NW L2 $11,601) in last 4/TM 86.5 (NW 2L4 87) or less/NW1 since 1/31/23

(7) MY PAL JOE makes his meal money when he drops into the NW10000 condition. Last time he was stuck in traffic and really had no chance to stretch his legs late. (1) IDEAL FEELING sat behind the top pick and was even in the stretch while dealing with a touch of traffic himself. He should sit a decent trip here. (10) JILLIBY DYNAMITE A was in a great spot last week when they canceled and now catches a tougher field from the outside post. If new driver Miller can get him in play, watch out!

Race 10: Winners over $10,000 in last 4 Handicap - $50K GTD Pick 4

(8) QUEEN OF SUCCESS sat off a rather slow pace and came home very willingly with no chance of getting home first. Any more reasonable trip should give her a big chance of success. (5) ALEXA SKYE hasn’t been on the big track in a while and may’ve needed that last start to get down to speed. (7) COACHELLABOUND N won in this class last time and seems likely to leave hard.

Race 11: Non-winners $7,500 (NW 2L4 $8,551) in last 4/TM 83.5 (NW L2/2L4 84/84.5) or less

(4) C-BET HANOVER gets class relief for a barn that excels when their horses move down the ladder. If Brennan hustles him to the front he could be sitting pretty at good odds. (7) GOOD DEAL has been closing well with no shot in races that have gone pretty quick. The class drop here could be just what he needs to seal the deal. (9) DOUBLE METAL missed by a head in this class last weekend; big threat again.

Race 12: Non-winners $7,500 (NW 2L4 $8,551) in last 4/TM 83.5 (NW L2/2L4 84/84.5) or less

(4) FIKA TIME is a quality horse that had gone a long time between on-track appearances and likely needed the start two weeks ago. He lands in a good spot here to sit just off the pace and pounce or gun to the front to perhaps sit behind (7) BEACH CHIEF. The latter couldn’t be any sharper and you know he’ll be in tactical position with his early speed. Adding Stratton to the team only helps. (5) MISTER DONALD A goes from post 10 on the canceled card last Saturday to a perfect mid-pack post here. He’s a trip player.

Race 13: Non-winners $5,000 (NW L2 $5,681) in last 4

(7) STRETCH THE LINE has been knocking on the door lately but can’t seem to get inside. The last time he was in this class he rallied nicely from way back; McCarthy drives this time! (8) URBAN RENEWAL is certainly good enough to make some noise with these at a decent price and I wouldn’t be shocked to see new driver Andy Miller gun off the gate. (10) REIGNING DEO is down in class. Will that mean a form reversal?

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Race 14: Trackmaster 80 (NW L2/2L4 80.5/81) or less

(1) WAR OF WILL has been razor sharp since moving into this barn, just like just about every horse from this stable. He’ll be tough again. (3) HOMESTRETCH WES gets major post relief and lands David Miller in the bike. (7) KING OF ACES has some early speed and only missed by just a head in this class last time. (6) BRAZEN BRAZILIAN has upset in this class before.