Meadowlands

Meadowlands: Analysis for Saturday 11/20

Derick Giwner|Nov 18, 2021

MEET STATS: 151-62-27-20 / $254.60 (-$47.40)

BEST BETS: 12-9-0-1 / $25.40 (+1.40)

SPOT PLAYS: 12-2-2-4 / $7.40 (-$16.60)

BEST BET: AMIGO VOLO (9th)

SPOT PLAY: DORSODURO HANOVER (12th)

Race 1: $100,000 Claiming - Pick 5

(5) KOMODO BEACH sat a great trip and got the job done last week. Three-year-old remains in for a tag and is certainly capable of stringing wins together. (2) YACHT SEELSTER went a gigantic mile from post 9 last time and he has the class to go with these. (3) SAVE ME A DANCE blew out a big mile at Yonkers last time and has won over this track in the past.

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Race 2: Non-winners $10,000 in last 5/TM 88 (NW L2 88.5) or less

(2) B LIKE CRUISER was a solid second in this class at big odds a couple of starts back and I could see him offering a good price in a field with some questions. (8) HIGHALATOR would've won this race by the length of the stretch a couple of years ago. If he's right, he wins. (5) ENOUGH SUN dropped to this level and improved last Friday.

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Race 3: Fall Harvest Final

(4) HOPNROLL HEAVEN was sneaky good from an impossible spot in last week's preliminary round and clearly took a big step forward in his second start for this barn. Rock N Roll Heaven gelding is fast enough to play with these and should be in striking position from the mid-pack post. (3) ULTIMAROCA looks like the one to beat off a sharp mile. (1) HIGH BALLER lacked a big kick last time but had it two starts back; trip threat. (10) HIS BEATS HANOVER was dealt a tough blow with post 10 but he could still get into the exotics at a price, especially if the pace is hot, which it could be.

Race 4: $413,600 Valley Victory - Survivor 7

Five of the six in this field can probably win this race. (5) PRETENDER was going to finish second last weekend prior to getting interfered with in the stretch. He should offer fair value here for a barn that has been waking up over the last week or so. (1) FAST AS THE WIND is the horse to beat and likely chalk but far from a lock. (6) THREEPOINTBLUECHIP came up with a big mile at Dover with Lasix added; clear threat.

Race 5: $175,000 TVG Mare Pace Final

(6) ROCKNIFICENT prepped perfectly for this with a qualifier where she chased one of the fastest horses in history and was very content to be second. With (9) LYONS SENTINEL stuck in post 9 and arguably slightly off her best game, "The Rock" looks like the smart play and I'll be limiting "The Lyon" to third. (3) GIA’S SURREAL comes back down from Mohawk in fine form. She's versatile enough to leave for a potential pocket trip behind the top choice or search for live cover.

Race 6: $479,450 Goldsmith Maid - $50K GTD Pick 4

I was very torn here on whether to take a stab against (7) VENERABLE. Ultimately the decision to back her is based on a belief that she should be controlling the race or at the very worst chasing a live horse in #8 from the pocket. She's probably not worth 1-9, but if you can get 2-5, that seems fair. Breeders crown winner (4) JOVIALITY S worked out a nice trip to win that contest and really hasn’t done much wrong in her career. The only question for me is whether she is as fast as the top pick. (2) PALERMO HANOVER has ability but made a break last time. That miscue could be a good price on a capable horse. (8) MISSWALNER FASHION was spectacular winning the Kindergarten. That said, she's outside Venerable and hasn't shown be sprinter speed away from the gate. I'm going to pass on her as the second choice.

Race 7: $175,000 TVG Mare Trot Final

While I don't think (1) ATLANTA was on her game in the Breeders Crown, to me this race and her schedule leading up to it present the ideal setup. First, driver Yannick Gingras has good options from the inside and can gun out if he wants to secure pocket position or he can wait off the pace. Second, her best races have come with two to three weeks off before the start. (8) WHEN DOVESCRY has been handled more cautiously in her last few starts and it's time to take the training wheels off here. As long as she is put in play, she has a big shot, though if Atlanta brings her best none of them have a chance. (7) FELICITYSHAGWELL S stole the Breeders Crown. That won't happen here. (9) BELLA BELLINI has her work cut out for her from this post. If it is her last career start you have to think she'll be put in play. I'm not sure the price will be high enough to take a shot on her.

Race 8: $386,600 Governor’s Cup - Pick 6

(4) HAMMERING HANK showed a new dimension by brushing to the front and looking good in the process. Pelling trainee looks to be peaking at the perfect time. (2) LOUKES PERRY missed the final of the Breeders Crown but wasn't bad in that race. His qualifier in the slop was sharp and he's been highly-regarded by his connections. (9) EARLY ACTION chased home the top pick in the Kindergarten final and now must figure out a trip from a bad post. (3) MARKET BASED posted a super mile at Dover most recently, but he faced absolutely no one in that win. This field is a HUGE step up in company.

Race 9: $350,000 TVG Open Trot Final

It took the entire year but it seems that (3) AMIGO VOLO is finally putting it all together. Trainer Nifty Norman says he's finally 100% now and it shows. Four-year-old has a huge chance to save his season with a win tonight. (4) FORBIDDEN TRADE was used early in the Breeders Crown and faded. Don't hold that effort against him. (8) BACK OF THE NECK has multiple dimensions to his game and doesn't exactly face the best field in the world. If Zeron can work out a decent trip, he's got a shot.

Race 10: $359,450 Three Diamonds - $50K GTD Pick 4

(4) NIKI HILL doesn't have an equal in this race or this division. She'll look to put her stamp on what could be a Horse of the Year campaign but most certainly will be year-end honors for 2-year-old filly pacers. (3) FRANTASY HANOVER pulled off a huge shocker at Lexington in her first start for Burke and then got handed two outside posts. There could be some value here with other contenders drawn outside. (8) JOYRIDE HANOVER seems to be getting better as the season goes on and she certainly has the early speed to get into the race. (10) TREACHEROUS DRAGON has plenty of talent but is stuck in an impossible spot.

Race 11: $350,000 TVG Open Pace Final

This is a difficult race to handicap that will likely be decided by trip. For me, (4) ENAVANT is in a perfect spot to wait off a hot pace and pick up cover from any number of live horses to his inside on the gate. Blais trainee couldn't have looked any better in the Potomac. (7) CATTLEWASH should be the last of the early speed to the front and from there it is just a matter of how long it takes him to get the top and which horses try to brush. He should be in good position either way. (3) ALLYWAG HANOVER has been the best horse in this division all year and certainly won't go down without a fight, but fair value is probably around 9-5 and I don't see that happening. (1) RUTHLESS HANOVER might not be up to winning a race like this one but we really don't know since he hasn't drawn well enough to show something. At least the price will be high. (2) OCEAN ROCK beat these in the Breeders Crown off a sweet trip. He's clearly a threat.

Race 12: Fall Harvest Final

(10) DORSODURO HANOVER has been making up for lost time at the end of this year and is certainly in form. Classy 6-year-old is closing in on $2 million lifetime and is capable of overcoming the tough draw. (6) SHOOBEE DOO A will be gunning to the front and should be sitting a good trip. (2) HAIL CHRISTIAN N continues to race well and could be a threat if the pace gets hot. (7) NO LOU ZING returned from vacation with a nice effort, though it was aided by a strong pace that set him up.

Race 13: $20,000-$30,000 Claiming Handicap

(7) MINDTRIP beat many of these last week in this class and seems to be getting a free ride here. (3) RISKY MILLION rallied nicely for second behind the top pick last time and continues to improve for new trainer Juan Cano. (5) P L LEEROY has the early speed to go for the front and this looks like the right spot to use it.

Race 14: Non-winners $7,000 (NW L3 $7,700) in last 5/TM 85 (NW L3 85.5) or less

(1) MONTEFALCO N gets major class relief for a barn that posted a win and two seconds here last weekend. This looks like a brush and crush spot. (7) QUALITY BUD returns to The Meadowlands where he went a solid mile for second in this class three starts back. (6) RIFLEMAN picked up a confidence-building win last time. Three-year-old has hinted at ability in his career and might be able to show even more now. (5) SPOILERONTHEBEACH drops slightly and raced well from off the pace in that last mile.