Meadowlands

Meadowlands: Analysis for Saturday 11/12

Derick Giwner|Nov 10, 2022

FALL MEET STATS: 104-28-18-17 / $162.30 (-$46.70)

BEST BETS: 8-7-0-0 / $41.60 (+25.60)

SPOT PLAYS: 8-0-1-2 / $0.00 (-$16.00)

BEST BET: CAPOZZO (4th)

SPOT PLAY: CULTURED (10th)

Race 1: TrackMaster 74 or less Final - Pick 5

If (1) ROCKEYED OPTIMIST shows up with the same effort as last week he'll be standing in the winner's circle. Since that mile came out of nowhere, I'll take a shot that he comes up a bit short and the sharp (3) INSTANTANEOUS can sit close and gobble him up late. (2) BRONSONS DELIGHT had a good closing kick to be second last time and if the pace is hot with more money on the line this time, he could be coming fast again.

[DRF HARNESS: Get Harness Eye PPs for this card]

Race 2: Winners 1-3 races or $40,000 life/Maidens draw inside

(4) PICK A GENRE and (6) BET A BUNDLE are the fastest and most accomplished horses in the field, but both are close to 50/50 to break lately. I’ll use both in the Pick 5 and hope one behaves. (9) STUN GUN has been holding his own in Pennsylvania and gets a nice driver change here.

[DRF BETS: Wager on tonight's Meadowlands card at DRF Bets.com!]

Race 3: Non-winners $7,500 in last 5 or p.s. in 2022/TM 82 (NW L2 82.5) or less - Survivor 7

(3) GOES DOWN SMOOTH was just steady from post 10 returning from seven weeks on the sidelines. Six-year-old has been a different horse since moving into this barn. (5) ELEGANT DULUPIN FR was a bit one-paced in his U.S. debut. Perhaps Macdonald will fire him up behind the gate this time so he doesn't have to close too much late. (1) ROMANTIC WARRIOR was very impressive versus lesser a week ago and perhaps he is this good. (2) SPEED AWAY is certainly fast enough and he does add Dunn.

Race 4: TrackMaster 77 or less Final

(7) CAPOZZO came home pretty well but lost to a horse with a better trip last week. Veteran has form and can tap into his class with twice as much money on the line this time. (4) BIG BAD BILL put up a career-best mile last out but should still offer decent value here. (8) INCREDIBLE BADGER was just short in the preliminary leg. I would be shocked if he showed some speed tonight. (6) KEEPAMERICAGREAT and (5) FOX VALLEY CARLIN both get interesting driver changes but have to prove they can pace fast enough.

Race 5: Kindergarten 2YO Filly Trot Final

(2) INSTAGRAM MODEL came up short in the Breeders Crown after missing five weeks of action. She has every right to be sharper now and notice she also adds Lasix. (6) MAMBACITA came up second best last time when the victim of a slow pace. She'll be heading to the front here and less likely to allow another horse to get away with soft fractions. (10) BOND has a long winning streak. Can she overcome post 10 at what could be a shorter than deserved price? (9) QUICK STOP was very good last time despite missing a bit of time. The post hurts but her form is solid.

Race 6: Preferred Trot - $50K GTD Pick 4

(2) IT’S ACADEMIC has been closing from way back week after week versus better foes. While there are some decent horses signed up here, there also appears to be enough early speed to set up his big rally. (4) RATTLE MY CAGE had late life with Lasix added last time and is worth following for another start, especially with Dunn joining the team. (5) JOXTER has great form and now gets tested for class.

Race 7: Non-winners $14,000 in last 5 or in 2022/TM 89 or less

(9) ROCKIN THE ACES raced well in this class last time and he certainly has the early speed to get into position; Dunn drives! (8) ALL ABOUT THE HUNT certainly has the ability but I'm not sure he can handle a tough trip and win; short price possible. (10) TORONTO raced very well in his first start after a year off but might get one more easy race from the bad post. (3) PASSA-GRILLE BEACH has form and is fast enough on his best; price play.

Race 8: Kindergarten 2YO Colt Trot Final - Pick 6

(7) VOLUME EIGHT is the most talented horse in the field right now. Sure he is still somewhat immature and comes with a bit of risk, but as long as you can get 2-1 or higher I would be on board. (1) PURPLE LORD has great form and should be firing off the gate from the inside to secure position. (8) INTERNATIONAL MAN has been keeping good company and maybe the slight class drop will make a difference. (10) SOUTHWIND ADMIRAL has been nearly unbeatable but still has more to prove in terms of speed and the post is a killer. (5) UP YOUR DEO is fast enough to win but has finished second way too often; also has missed time.

Race 9: Kindergarten 2YO Colt Pace Final

(5) SAVE AMERICA was in a tough spot versus better foes from a bad post in the Breeders Crown. On paper he’s supposed to win this race, though I'd take a look at him on the track before jumping on board. (3) HUNGRY MAN didn't fire home as well as I expected last time but I do think there is some ability here and the price will be right. (2) GOLDIN GREATNESS was a victim of a slow pace last weekend. He has a shot but I'd want 5-1 or higher. (1) LOUBET is clearly talented and I wouldn't be shocked if he kept rolling along.

Race 10: Kindergarten 2YO Filly Pace Final - $50K GTD Pick 4

(2) CULTURED powered home in 25 4/5 to take a leg of the Kindergarten last time in 1:53. That was just her second start since August 14 and she can definitely continue to improve, perhaps enough to best likely odds-on chalk (1) CHARLESTON. The latter has never been worse than second in nine career starts and was just a game second in the Breeders Crown. (7) BELLISIMA HANOVER stole away with a soft three quarters before sprinting a final quarter in an amazing 25 2/5 last time. She's a talented filly facing a very nice group.

Race 11: Non-winners $10,500 in last 5/TM 86.5 (NW L3/5 87/87.5) or less

(3) PD THE BIG EASY is back on Lasix now and his record with the medication is much better. He's also one of the fastest horses in the race. (6) TITO ROCKS comes off a confidence-building win at Philly and might be able to step up now. (7) THREE IN HEAVEN A comes from Australia with a good record but I'm not sure he'll be handled aggressive right off the bat at what should be an underlay in terms of price.

Race 12: Non-winners $14,000 in last 5 or 8 races life/TM 87 (NW L3 87.5) or less

It's rare that I'll change my pick due to a driver change but I'm making an exception for (9) RICH AND MISERABLE. He is far and away the class of the race and Tetrick got off (5) EMERALD’S LEGACY, a horse he has driven week after week with success. The latter stays in the same class but exits a much tougher race where the winner would be odds-on here. Three-year-old should have a big shot. (7) LEXUS KODY has some class and big early speed. He is capable if given a free shot at the front.

Race 13: Non-winners $7,500 (NW L3 $8,250) in last 5/TM 83 (NW L3/5 83.5/84) or less

(3) HEZA REAL DIAMOND picked up some confidence versus lesser last time at Freehold and when this guy is feeling good he's capable of a big mile. (6) TRUFFLE DOG comes out of some higher classes at Hoosier and would certainly seem to fit here. (4) IMAGINARY LINE missed just a head in a higher condition a week ago. (7) ROCK STEADY RON moves into a new barn and could improve.

Race 14: TrackMaster 77 or less/TM 77.01-78.62 draw outside

(9) MISTER HAT gets class relief as he drops out of claiming company to face this questionable TrackMaster field. Driver switch to the much more aggressive Bongiorno is key as well. (5) SKIP TO MY LOU got a barn and scenery change which seems to have turned this guy around. (6) LETSGOTOBRAZIL A was used hard and stopped in his first start since January. If he's ready now, watch out! (1) LONE WOLF AMERICAN comes out of a pretty tough class at Saratoga and notice that when he's drawn well he's done well.