Meadowlands

Meadowlands: Analysis for Saturday 10/23

Derick Giwner|Oct 21, 2021

MEET STATS: 62-29-8-11 / $125.40 (+$1.40)

BEST BETS: 5-3-0-1 / $7.40 (-2.60)

SPOT PLAYS: 5-1-1-3 / $3.00 (-$7.00)

BEST BET: PERFECT STING (6th)

SPOT PLAY: ALTAR (5th)

Race 1: Open Trot - Pick 5

A bunch of these are prepping for next week's Breeders Crown Open Trot final so it is difficult to say which of these will be bringing their "A" game. I'll try (5) BEADS, who raced reasonably well last time considering he didn't have Lasix and was making his first start in five weeks. He will probably benefit from a strong performance but could need some pace help. The light bulb has gone back on in recent weeks for 2020 Breeders Crown winner (2) AMIGO VOLO. This is a good test for the 4-year-old to see if he is truly ready for prime time. (3) IT'S ACADEMIC also adds Lasix again after a decent mile last time. He's as consistent as they come, but as an early speed type, he could be compromised if some of the outside horses leave the gate.

[DRF HARNESS: Get Harness Eye PPs for this card]

Race 2: Non-winners $17,500 (NW L2 $19,250) in last 4

(7) COVERED BRIDGE tends to get brave when he drops into soft spots like this one. Looks for Yannick to gun to the front and try to take them all the way. (2) SEMI TOUGH didn't seem to care for Yonkers but was racing very well when here in September. (6) STONE HANOVER & (8) GEEZ JOE are both capable given a clean trip.

[DRF BETS: Wager on tonight's Meadowlands card at DRF Bets.com!]

Race 3: Breeders Crown 3YO C&G Trot Elimination - Survivor 7

While the post isn't ideal, when looking at (8) FLY LIGHT's PP lines there is a lot to like. He rallied well last time behind arguably the best two horses in the division, won his prior start, had no shot from post 9 three starts back and was solid in his starts four and five back. He seems worth a flyer at what should be fair value; Dunn's choice. (3) IN RANGE is much better than his recent dull lines and I'd expect Tetrick to be more aggressive this week. (4) AHUNDREDDOLLARBILL wasn't able to build on his CDN Trotting Classic win at The Red Mile and seems to project as a first-over horse in this spot; leaning against. (7) LOGAN PARK has really picked up his game with Lasix added and he seems to have the early speed to make the front.

Race 4: Breeders Crown 3YO Filly Pace Elimination

(3) GRACE HILL gets away from Test Of Faith this week and gets a huge post edge on Fire Start Hanover. She should prove tough to beat in this spot. (6) BLUE DIAMOND EYES has been tiring on the lead on a Red Mile surface that clearly wasn't playing to her style. Perhaps she finds her mojo back at The Big M. (10) FIRE START HANOVER only needs to be in the top eight to make the final and it seems unlikely that she'll fire off the gate with other early speed types to her inside. I’m guessing she'll be raced conservatively.

Race 5: Breeders Crown 3YO Filly Trot Elimination

(7) ALTAR was sitting pretty in the pocket when she broke last time out. Perhaps she just isn't ready to race out of a hole and needs the lead? I'd be shocked if she wasn't cutting the pace here and her best is clearly good enough. (3) MAY KARP rallied nicely to be third in the Filly Futurity and could be in line for a good trip here from the inside post. (6) KATIE’S LUCKY DAY rolled off cover after chasing quick fractions for the lifetime best win in the Filly Futurity. She's certainly worth playing in the 3-1 range but not as the favorite quite yet. (5) AMAZONE DUHARAS has the early speed to make the top and should be a player, at least for the exotics.

Race 6: Breeders Crown 3YO C&G Pace Elimination - Pick 6

(1) PERFECT STING has amassed nearly a million in earnings this year without winning a major race; that's some feat! Sophomore colt finds the perfect spot this week and really shouldn't have any trouble with this group. (3) CHASE H HANOVER was caught in a strange race last time which he got shuffled back to the three-hole and had no chance when they came the last half in 52 3/5. He should be firing out again here and give the top pick a bit of a tussle. (5) SUMMA CUM LAUDE seemed to be moving in the right direction before the Tattersalls. Maybe adding Lasix again will help. (7) ABUCKABETT HANOVER has been racing well and certainly could win this race, but I'd want like 4-1 or higher to take a shot as I think he'll be raced from behind.

Race 7: Breeders Crown 3YO C&G Trot Elimination

(1) JUJUBEE is the dominant horse in this division right now and it isn't even close. It is hard to imagine him losing. (5) CUATRO DE JULIO was second best behind the pick last time. We know he is fast but #1 seems too sharp to beat right now. (2) JOHAN PALEMA got a good steer last time to be fourth behind the top pick. Does Lasix move him up today?

Race 8: Breeders Crown 3YO&up F&M Trot Elimination

If the winner didn't get an inside post in the final I'd likely pass on (1) ATLANTA as a top pick figuring she'll be handled patiently, but these connections seem likely to go for the win to ensure good positioning. (6) WHEN DOVESCRY is simply not as fast as Atlanta when she's on her game. If the top one falters even slightly, she'll be right there to capitalize. (7) MAY BABY tends to end up chasing foes through soft fractions at Hoosier. That this race should go faster could help her and she's raced well here before.

Race 9: Breeders Crown 3YO C&G Pace Elimination - $50K GTD Pick 4

(2) LOU'S PEARLMAN is back on Lasix now and qualified on the medication last Friday. He was the hottest 3yo male pacer in the sport prior to racing without Lasix on a closer's track last time. That Yannick chose #1 Southwind Gendry this week when last time he took Lou's Pearlman has me second-guessing myself a bit, but there may be value here on a horse that could be sharper than he looks. (4) CHARLIE MAY was stuck fourth over chasing a slow pace last time and even a 25 4/5 final quarter wasn't enough to get the job done. Does Brett Miller elect to show early speed now? (3) ROCKYROAD HANOVER was even further back than Charlie May and closed somewhat similarly in the Tattersalls, though he has been a bit of a money burner.

Race 10: Breeders Crown 3YO Filly Trot Elimination

(2) DONNA SOPRANO comes off an awful-looking qualifier which I'm hoping will mean she'll provide big value at the windows. She's a very capable filly sent here from Canada by connections that typically bring live horses. (7) BELLA BELLINI has gone some big miles in defeat lately and she remains the leader of this group. I'd expect her to float away here to avoid coming away too far back but trip could be an issue again. (8) ADIRONDACK qualified well with Lasix added and some sort of wake-up mile isn't out of the question. (1) YOU ATO DREAM is more of an underneath horse for me. She has the early speed to stick close from the cones and rarely tosses in a bad effort.

Race 11: Breeders Crown 3YO&up F&M Pace Elimination

(7) LYONS SENTINEL has been an absolute monster all year and it doesn't seem to matter what trip she gets. I guess if there is a spot where she could lose, this is it . . . from an outside post versus a solid field. (6) ROCKIN NOLA leaves Indiana for just the second time in her career. She's been a force in the Hoosier state while posting times that compare favorably to this group. (4) ROCKNIFICENT comes off a career-best performance and she rarely finishes worse than second.

Race 12: Breeders Crown Open Pace Elimination

(5) CATTLEWASH looked like he needed the race last time in the Allerage and I'm not 100% sold that he'll be razor-sharp for the elimination, but he does land a perfect post here to suit whatever racing style that David Miller chooses. (7) WARRAWEE VITAL has proven time and again that he is a fast horse and you can't argue with his current form. (1) NICHOLAS BEACH was part of an insane pace last time at The Red Mile and paid the price. The fractions should be much more reasonable here. (8) THIS IS THE PLAN took advantage of that hot pace to rally for second in the Allerage. I'm not convinced he'll be close enough to the action to win considering he only has to finish in the top seven to make the final.