Meadowlands: Analysis for Friday 9/11/26

FALL MEET STATS: 56-18-9-15 / $79.00 (-$33.00)

BEST BETS: 3-0-1-1 / $0.00 (-$6.00)

SPOT PLAYS: 4-1-0-0 / $4.40 (-$3.60)

BEST BET: PROMISES TO KEEP (1st)

SPOT PLAY: CUSTOM (8th)

Race 1: $100K NJ Classic 2YO Filly Trot Consolation - Pick 5

(5) PROMISES TO KEEP had good trot on the end of the mile last week despite missing seven weeks of action before that race. Note that all three foes that beat her are in the final later on the card. Lightly raced filly only has two career starts and is eligible to improve. (9) OLBIA stopped on the engine without putting up a fight last time. All of her prior efforts have been fine. (7) SIP AWAY tends to come home with late interest and that could get her a piece of the lower exotics.

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Race 2: $50K NJ Classic 2YO Filly Pace Consolation

(4) PERFECTUM took a big shot at the leader last week before coming to a stop. I like that she was handled aggressively and perhaps she can handle this softer group with a smoother trip. (1) ODDS ON GREENBACK draws inside versus a weak group and could be hustled away from the gate. (5) HL BAD HUNNY wasn’t awful last week considering it was her first start in four weeks; more now?

Race 3: $150K NJ Classic 3YO Filly Pace Final - Pick 4

(6) BE PERFECT BG hasn’t quite been as sharp as she was earlier in the year, but this is a HUGE step down in competition and even her B+ game should be enough to get a victory. (2) PERFECT THOUGHT was well behind the top pick last time in the Lynch. That said, on her best she can be closer. (4) CAR KEYS has been better with Lasix added in overnight competition. Can she step up versus stakes foes?

Race 4: $150K NJ Classic 3YO C&G Pace Final - Survivor 7

(1) BOOKIE J has been facing better fields in Kentucky and should enjoy this spot. (3) CALLMEBIGPAPI was a good second behind one of the sharpest around in Toast of The Town last time. (2) SONOFANUTCRACKER has the ability if this barn can wake him up.

Race 5: Meadowlands Amateur Drivers Club 1 Pace

(2) CONTROL GROUP moves to the inside of the gate this week and figures to fire out for Yogi. (6) SEIZE CONTROL is the sharpest horse in the field and can threaten on the win end with any decent trip. (9) ROMA AMOR woke up with a strong mile last time at Philly and really wasn’t that bad two back here when she was used hard in a fast half. (1) LEW HAUBER moves inside and should be in play this week.

Race 6: $250K NJ Classic 2YO Filly Trot Final - Pick 5

(2) WALL OF FAME has dominated in just about every start and there is no reason to think her unblemished record will disappear tonight. (10) GRANDIFLORA could be an interesting price play starting from post 10. She is capable of early speed and cruised into the final last week a well-clear third. Trainer Daley does get aggressive and take the shoes off in big spots, so check the board. (5) RIO DE JANEIRO comes into this race off a trip of wins and seems to be getting better each time; clear win threat if the top one falters. (1) DANDELION WINE has been right there every week and you are finally going to get a good price.

Race 7: $250K NJ Classic 2YO C&G Trot Final

(3) LIFETIME DREAMER is already a NJSS winner and now he takes aim at the NJ Classic. While he lost to two of these last week, let’s keep in mind that he had post nine and was the victim of a very slow pace scenario. He can rebound at a much better price. (4) WRONG SOUNDS RIGHT has gone four straight strong miles and certainly has a big win chance, even if he did get trounced by the top pick two starts back. (1) LINCOLN KRONOS won’t take any money but has been racing sneaky good. I’ll be using him in the exotics. (2) FREE SCOTTIE responded with hobbles added and will be bet heavier now. Keep in mind that the mile time was only 1:54 4/5 and he chased down a longshot into a final quarter sprint, so it wasn’t as impressive as it looks.

Race 8: $250K NJ Classic 3YO Filly Trot Final - Pick 6

(6) CUSTOM lands in a spot where she is arguably the best horse and that hasn’t happened much during this year. She’s perfectly drawn in the middle of the gate and that should allow Bartlett to work out the best trip. (10) EMMAS MYSTERY CCL never had a chance in the Oaks elim after chasing through slow fractions and sprinting home in 26 2/5. While we haven’t seen her since, there are a couple of qualifiers to keep her sharp. I wouldn’t be surprised to see her fire a big shot at sweet odds. (5) LEADING LADY has just missed to #8 as the chalk in her last two starts; Dunn joins the team now. (2) SOUTHWIND CHASKA has ability but needs a smooth trip.

Race 9: $250K NJ Classic 3YO C&G Trot Final

(6) APEX didn’t have it for whatever reason in the elimination round. Maybe his connections weren’t treating it as an important race given he only needed to finish in the top five to make the final. Whatever the reasoning, he’s lengths better than these when on his game and I’m expecting a rebound. (5) NIX NACKEN has won two straight but will need the right trip if he wants to come anywhere close to his stablemate. (3) DIABOLIC HILL can’t pass a parked car right now. The talent is still there but his connections have to seriously consider different tactics – either blasting and not letting anyone go or taking completely back and looking for cover.

Race 10: $188,200 Girl Power Mare Trot - Pick 4

(2) TACTICAL MONI was bet strong last week as expected and I wasn’t shocked she was just even. With more money on the line this week, expect to see a more interested horse. (1) CONVERSANO missed five weeks prior to her last start and was stuck in an impossible spot regardless. She is plenty talented and could provide some nice value. (9) WALSPEA is as honest as they come and you know she’ll be firing off the gate; clear win threat.

Race 11: $150K NJ Classic 2YO C&G Pace Final

(4) YELLOW JACKET hasn’t thrown in any bad races and it seems certain that he’ll be close to the lead. I’ll take a swing with him due to the post edge on the undefeated (9) AINTMYFIRSTRO DEO, who won’t get an easy lead and a soft pace this time around. He’s the best horse if Zeron can work out the right trip. (2) FIVE ALARM FIRE spends a lot of time on a truck as he’s shipped from Canada to Pennsylvania multiple times. Now he lands in NJ and may’ve found a decent spot to get a nice check.

Race 12: $150K NJ Classic 2YO Filly Pace Final - $3 Pick 3

(4) PERFECT BODY was raced very conservatively last week coming off the break and I have to believe that was the plan with only a Top 5 finish needed to make the final. We should see a different filly this week. (5) PERFECT HOPE DEO couldn’t handle the first-over journey in the elimination round. The trip should be better this week. (1) LITE THE TUNNEL rallied very impressively to win her elimination and if she can repeat that mile, watch out!

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Race 13: $100K NJ Classic 3YO C&G Trot Consolation - $5 Late Double

(4) CAPTAIN JORDAN and (5) DAVID SEAMAN S are the two sure-gaited horses in this abbreviated field and they could be sitting one-two around the track. (1) SOUTHWIND FARGO and (2) YANKEE BOOST can’t seem to stay trotting. If either does they have a big win chance.

Race 14: Trackmaster 68 (NW L4 69.15) or less

(8) SQUANKUM LADY was better last weekend and she takes a meaningful drop from TM71 to TM68 tonight. She’s worth a shot here at a price. (3) JUST MY MAMA rolled down the road two starts back when she drew well in this class. (6) ODDS ON CELESTIAL raced well in her debut for this barn and now tries the big track. She could certainly bring a good mile.