Meadowlands: Analysis for Friday 7/4

CHAMPIONSHIP MEET STATS: 250-79-42-31 / $431.90 (-$68.10)

BEST BETS: 18-7-5-1 / $34.00 (-$2.00)

SPOT PLAYS: 17-3-2-4 / $18.00 (-$16.00)

BEST BET: WOLFPACK CROWN (9^th)

SPOT PLAY: CAPTAIN VODKA (7^th)

Race 1: Meadowlands Amateur Drivers Club 1 Pace - Pick 5

(5) ROJAN’S WAY has been stuck outside versus better foes in his last two amateur starts. He moves to the middle of the gate now and I expect we’ll see early speed. (4) NEVER EASY Z TAM is a sharp horse that is ready to win but the driver has gotten the horse into traffic trouble in two straight. He’s clearly a contender but don’t bet him at a short price. (8) TELITONTHEMOUNTAIN two-moved to the front and went a big mile in defeat last time, though the final time was very slow. (6) BIG BAD BILL reunites with Joe Lee after a tough first over trip last time.

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Race 2: Trackmaster 71 (NW L2/L5 73/73.46) or less

Going with the Geo Hernandez double here. (5) DUCK INTO THE NITE leaves Yonkers where he hasn’t been able to get into the action and returns to The Meadowlands at a reduced level. Mare finds a field with some outside speed to push the pace and that should set her up nicely. (4) BETTE TINA has to be given serious consideration on the driver change to Dunn. (2) PULL ME THROUGH is stepping up but certainly sharp. The inside post will allow her to get away close and charge late for a big piece. (10) SUNBURNT has been second and third in this class most recently. You have to expect he’ll be firing hard off the gate and if somehow he gets to the top easily he should get into the exotics.

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Race 3: Kindergarten 2YO Filly Pace - Survivor 7

None of these really caught my eye in their morning prep races. (4) PAPI’S CRUSH was probably the best of the group. Last time she showed good speed at both ends of the mile and was a solid winner under just some whip taps. It is also worth noting that a stretch headwind picked up later in the card when this gal was racing. (1) WAVE DANCER cut the mile and was outkicked most recently. She did drop two seconds off her first attempt and Zeron saw fit to stick with her. (2) LOCHINVAR MATILDA rated on the front and drew clear two qualifiers back but was handled by the top pick last weekend. (3) LADYSASSIN was just steady in her first qualifier and lacked a late kick in her second.

Race 4: Meadowlands Amateur Drivers Club 1 Pace

(5) STORM THE COURT went down the road in a huge mile two starts back and now he moves in a few spots on the gate which should allow for similar tactics. (2) SEIZE CONTROL raced very well from a tough post last time with Yogi taking over the lines; moves inside now! (4) MASTER MIKI was burnt to a crisp battling for the lead most recently. I see more patient handling coming here and a good effort. (3) MIDNIGHT LIGHTNING gets a new driver and is worth some consideration.

Race 5: Kindergarten 2YO C&G Trot

(5) DIABOLIC HILL is still very green from what I’ve seen in the morning but there is a big engine inside this son of Muscle Hill. All he needs is a decent outside flow and he’ll fire home big, likely while drifting out. (6) MR PENNER is one of many Captain Corey youngsters who have caught my eye in early action. First foal from Wet My Whistle cruised to victory in his lone appearance. (1) YANKEE BOOST finished up on his own in qualifier one but made a break last time. There could be value in this guy. (3) MINOAN didn’t seem to be asked in his first try when just missing but was a bit flat in start two. This barn is known to fire fresh despite “dull” lines. (4) SPYCATCHER won on his own in start one but tired on the lead in his second try.

Race 6: Trackmaster 68 (NW L2 70) or less - $50K GTD Pick 4

(3) EA MUSHU is a horse that can leave the gate reasonably well against a group that possesses little to no early speed on paper. While I’m not excited to bet her, this looks like the right spot. (4) BABY DOLL JEN has shown that she can sit and pounce if things go her way in terms of trip. The change to McCarthy in the bike is also very noteworthy. (5) MYSTIQUE GIRL looks like the other horse which could try to fire off the gate. If Martin can find a seat close he could get her into the number at big odds. (6) BEE AWARE has been finishing well and only needs to be kept closer to have a chance.

Race 7: Kindergarten 2YO C&G Trot

(1) CAPTAIN VODKA won under a few taps of the whip in his debut but ran into some difficulty in start two. After leaving very well he broke but had the “go” to trot a 58 and change middle half before flattening out a bit. Captain Corey-sired colt has some ability and could offer value on the board. (6) SOUTHWIND ALAMO was under a good hold and finished up willingly when asked in his first try and followed that up with a never-asked win on the engine at Philly. This mare has had trouble getting them to the races but one of her last ones Southwind Admiral went out for this barn in 2021 and started with a second and a win. (3) HIGHBALL HANOVER won under some urging in start one and two-moved for a very easy win last time. Bar Hopping colt seems to be on the small side and will likely be the chalk here. If that is the case I’ll fade him. (4) MEGA SHARK looks to be a much bigger colt and it is worth noting that he aborted a leave attempt in his second qualifier.

Race 8: Trackmaster 71 (NW L2/L5 73/74.25) or less - Pick 6

(9) C KAN TROT gets a barn change after a $15,000 online purchase for the Height/Slendorn team that has had success with new arrivals. Just as key is the switch to leading driver Beckwith from the trainer being in the bike. (4) SAINTS PRESERVE US has started off 2025 slowly after a good 2-year-old campaign. Her Gaitway qualifier wasn’t bad and last time she seemed to be willing at the end of the mile. I can see her stepping up in this seemingly soft spot. (3) ALL TOO WELL popped here from post 10 on May 30. The ability is there.

Race 9: Kindergarten 2YO C&G Trot

(4) WOLFPACK CROWN was two-for-two in qualifying action at Mohawk Park before running into a very talented field of youngsters in his debut; note that race went in a speedy 1:55 3/5. Dr. Ian Moore isn’t bringing this guy south so he can get a slice of New York pizza. (2) MAGIC PUNK also owns a perfect morning record. Last time he dug in nicely for the win under light asking. Half-brother was a 1:55 1/5 winner at age 2. (6) IT COULD BE WORSE was outkicked by #2 last time and patiently kept behind the leader in his first start. There might be more in the tank here if they choose to put it on display. (3) ONASSIS finished steadily when asked in his most recent start and won previously because the leader stopped. I see him being overbet. (7) SOUTHWIND MILWAUKI has non-descript lines but owns the type of pattern you sometimes see from Daley trainees that score at big prices.

Race 10: Non-winners $7,500 in last 5/TM 83.5 (NW L2 85.56) or less - $50K GTD Pick 4

(8) HERS HUNGRY went a big mile last time against a better overall field and came up second best. Logic would state she’s best in here but I’d stop short of saying she’s a lock. (3) DONEGAL SPIRIT has been in a number of different conditions which make it difficult to decipher where she’s at but they’ve been pretty tough spots judging by the top three in the competition lines. Four-year-old has a serious shot to awaken. (5) HIGH FASHION STAR is eligible to improve in her second start since January, especially with Miller taking over in the bike. (6) REMY BROWN N exits the same race as #5 and finished a few lengths ahead of her. She could also improve in just her third start of the year.

Race 11: Kindergarten 2YO C&G Pace

More than half of these displayed some good talent in their qualifiers so you really can’t go wrong by seeking out the best price. (11) WATCH EM WIN was barely asked in his first win and uncorked a four-wide move to win last time. Starting from the second tier isn’t ideal but this son of He’s Watching has shown enough and is a half-brother to All Class, who won his only 2-year-old start by nine lengths in 1:54 at Oak Grove. (7) APOCALYPSEBLUECHIP only finished third last time but he did keep up nicely in an insane 1:52 4/5 mile at Gaitway. Papi Rob Hanover colt has early speed and could be interesting here. (4) DAX SEELSTER recovered nicely from an early break in his first try and was spectacular winning in 1:54 3/5 last time. First-year foal from Bulldog Hanover looks like the real deal. (10) BRANDON BLVD would probably be my top pick with a better post. He made two moves and then was kept on reserve in the pocket in start one and responded very nicely when asked last time. Big ticket Downbytheseaside colt might have some ability. (1) CALLMEBIGPAPI won his first qualifier under a hold and strode out nicely last time. He was also McCarthy’s pick over #10.

Race 12: Kindergarten 2YO Filly Trot

(6) NIGHT FRENCH GIRL actually came away pretty well last time but backed off before powering to the front and winning under some light whip taps. This Muscle Hill filly shows slow times and might surprise a few people when she goes much faster on Friday. (7) ABBEY BLUE CHIP is a bit of a mystery in that she really hasn’t been challenged at all yet. She came away on the front last time because no one was near the gate and was never asked in an easy win. She’s a must on my Pick 4 ticket. (8) ISLANDGIRL HANOVER was a winner at first asking for trainer/driver Trond Smedshammer and I can see him firing her out tonight as the most experienced filly in the field. (3) R HOLLY finished up willingly in her latest qualifier in a decent time. She can definitely step forward here.

Race 13: Kindergarten 2YO Filly Trot

(7) WALDON FASHION has turned in two really sharp qualifiers and drew away nicely in each one. You also have to love that she is fast off the gate if needed and comes from a barn that typically fires strong with 2-year-olds. Finally, she is royally bred out of $1.4 million winner Broadway Donna in her first pairing with Walner. (3) KICKAN posted a nice first qualifier but followed it up with an even better performance while pretty much in-hand late. First foal from $593K winner You Ato Dream has a right to be anything. (6) CARVE finished up very willingly in her career debut after chasing pedestrian fractions. That start should only help her tonight. (5) KATE was a bit sluggish early but showed good life at the end of the mile when asked in her lone qualifier.

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Race 14: Non-winners 2 (NW L2 3) races or $20,000 (NW L2 $30,000) life/Maidens draw inside

(8) TIE THE KNOT has been keeping much better company against the likes of Miki And Minnie and Rodeo Drive Deo. This is a field where she’s supposed to get confidence against. (5) LILY WHITE HANOVER showed some ability as a 2-year-old and is certainly eligible to improve in her second start of the year. (3) BEACH BABE is inconsistent as to when she brings a top effort but tends to race well enough to get pieces more often than not in 2025.

Race 15: Non-winners 2 (NW L2 3) races or $20,000 (NW L2 $33,500) life/Maidens draw inside

(2) GRAND RESERVE romped in her first start with hobbles and last time she was simply too far back to get there after chasing a slow pace. (7) PRECISE LANDING raced well to be third last time versus two horses that would be heavily favored in this race. (3) BEST FRIENDS GIRL lures Miller off my top pick but this is seems like a barn-loyalty thing to me.