Meadowlands: Analysis for Friday 7/30

CHAMPIONSHIP MEET STATS: 320-109-62-58 / $626.00 (-$14.00)

BEST BETS: 24-8-7-3 / $28.80 (-19.20)

SPOT PLAYS: 24-8-6-3 / $49.60 (+$1.60)

BEST BET: SERMON (2nd)

SPOT PLAY: PLAY TRIX ON ME (10th)

Race 1: $7,500-$10,000 Claiming Handicap - Pick 5

They say speed kills but in harness racing it wins races. (7) BUGGER BRUISER has plenty of early speed and gets a key class drop back to the level where he was claimed on June 18. He should be hustled away and have a big shot at a fair price since (8) ALWAYS A FORCE, himself a class-dropper who won his last start at this level by four lengths, is sure to be the chalk. (3) TRICK CARD has been consistent in two starts since the claim. If the top two mix it up, he could be coming late. (2) STORMONT CZAR A took advantage of a very weak field and bottomed them out a week ago. It won't be so easy versus this group. (6) UNCLE COZ lured Tyler Miller off his main account in #7, so maybe there is something to that, though he was also taken off of race 8 #6, so maybe not. .

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Race 2: Winners 3-7 races life

(6) SERMON is back on Lasix now after being forced to remove the medication due to the Hambletonian Maturity rules. Four-year-old faces mostly younger foes and gets huge class relief. He's supposed to shine in this spot. (1) CARUSO is certainly fast enough to win if he decides to behave. He's very much unreliable in any position. (2) MON AMOUR has breaks in two of his last three starts but his best puts him in the mix.

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Race 3: Non-winners 1 race life 2-year-olds - Survivor 7

(8) MIDNITE EXPRESS G faces a still developing field without a standout and might be worth a flyer on the driver change to Tetrick. The one time he drove this Donato Hanover filly she qualified very well in 1:56 1/5. (6) PRETTY INTERESTING finished up in good order in her first career start, though I'm concerned that when she was near the lead previously she got caught. (2) LOOKING CHIC went an even mile versus much tougher in her first career try. She is more than deserving of a second chance.

Race 4: Peter Haughton Memorial Elimination

This is a talented group of 2-year-olds and I can't see playing the favorite here. (7) TEMPORAL HANOVER has been good every week and was used a bit early last time which is why he lost to King Of The North off a perfect trip. I'm putting my chips in this son of Walner's basket and hoping he leaves as usual, but there is an outside chance he is raced conservatively looking to just finish in the top five and make the final. (1) LOOKS LIKE MONI comes out of the same race as the top pick and did all the work first-over only to tire a bit late. Does driver Tim Tetrick fire out or try an early brush with the hopes of earning a better post next week with the win? (2) KING OF THE NORTH is perfect in three career starts and clearly the horse to beat, but I'm not prepared to back him at what could be an odds-on price. (5) B A SUPERHERO has some ability but is coming off a scratched-sick line. He's worth a look on the track.

Race 5: TrackMaster Rating 74.5 (NW L3 75/FM 75.5) or less/NW 1 race with 20 starts in 2021

(1) RISKY MILLION still owns a donut in 22 starts this year but has earned more than every horse in the field this year except #4. Four-year-old gets into the race on the AE condition and should have a big shot at this basement level. (9) DEPENDLEBURY A chased a favorite that was unlikely to lose last week and he certainly has the early speed to get into play. (6) TITUS SEELSTER is another with early zip and he showed it the last time he was in this class to finish second. Veteran is winless in 25 starts in 2021 and the barn is 1-for-54 here, but Dunn joins the team; mixed feelings.

Race 6: Peter Haughton Memorial Elimination - $50K GTD Pick 4

(5) ROBERTSIN finally gets a good spot behind the gate after three consecutive nine-holes to start his career. He's battle-tested while likely favorite (2) LETSDOIT S has but one start under his belt. I'll lean to #5 on the price play while respecting #2. (6) FAST AS THE WIND is now undefeated in two starts, though I don't think we have any idea how good he is at this point. We'll learn more on Friday.

Race 7: Winners 2-4 (NW L2 5) races life/NW 2 (NW L3 3) or $22,500 life draw inside

(7) BETTER TAKE IT was in an impossible spot last time and has a string of lines versus some very difficult competition including Lou's Pearlman. The post isn't ideal, and I'm not sure if he can find early speed, but either way he should be a major player. (1) FOUR MORE YEARS raced very well in his first start in nearly a year and logic states that he'll be even better with that race under his belt. (5) ALWAYS B SWEET has now won two straight including besting (4) PIRATE HANOVER, who went off the favorite last time and disappointed once again. (6) DEAN B HANOVER had no shot in the Adios and lost the start before to the likely favorite in that final Water Sports Teen. I've seen worse longshot plays.

Race 8: Non-winners $6,000 (NW L3 $6,600) in last 4 or 1 race in 2021 - Pick 6 ($10,855.23 Carryover)

(6) BEST HONEY HANOVER was done in by a bad post last time and got hung in the prior start. New driver Mark MacDonald loves to gun off the gate and should put him in play tonight. (5) ROSE RUN VANTAGE hasn't been great of late but perhaps the switch back to Tetrick will help. (8) JK ALWAYSBALADY qualified back in good order and is certainly in cheap enough. Will she be aggressively handled a week out from the Shady Daisy to get her ready? (1) UPTOWN LADY N has put in two solid efforts after missing more than a year of action. I'm unsure whether this spot is too tough for her or not.

Race 9: Jim Doherty Memorial Elimination

(6) JOVIALITY S won her debut and came back with a solid effort from a tough post in start two over this track. It's a bit of a guessing game here on who will be "trying" with nine of the 10 fillies making the rich final next week, but I have a feeling she'll be put in play. Driver Yannick Gingras chose (3) JIGGY JOG S over two Burke-trained horses, so that says something right there. Yannick is usually aggressive in elimination races. (10) MON CHEVAL was a powerful winner in her career debut at Pocono. Royally-bred daughter of Father Patrick-Shake It Cerry has talent but might be conservative from post 10. (2) DELILAH HANOVER and (1) VALENTINA BLU have both displayed ability and are trip threats.

Race 10: Non-winners $17,500 in last 4/4-year-olds/NW12500 in last 4 draw inside - $50K GTD Pick 4

(5) PLAY TRIX ON ME drops back down to the class where he set a career-best 1:50 4/5 mark three starts back. He's since moved into a new barn but there is no reason to believe he can't have similar success. (6) LOVEDBYTHEMASSES came up with a career best of his own last time out in his second start on Lasix. His only downside is a lack of early speed. (2) HOCKEY HANOVER wasn't able to reproduce his lifetime best last weekend but perhaps Gingras back in the bike will help.

Race 11: Non-winners $6,000 (NW L3 $6,600) in last 4 or 1 race in 2021/NW3500 L4 draw inside

(8) HL REVADON raced evenly returning from a three-month break and now the connections reach out to Dexter Dunn, who sticks here over two others. I have to imagine we'll see some early speed tonight. (5) DOUBLE ACCOUNT gets class relief and should prove tough to beat with any decent trip. (7) NO DRAMA PLEASE also drops and has some back class. His best makes him a player.

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Race 12: Non-winners $2,055 in last 4 or TM 75 or less

(1) DISMISSAL SLIP should fire out from the inside versus this sluggish group and have a great chance of working out a winning trip. (6) SPIRIT OF TRUTH drops down the class ladder and adds Dunn, though he is 1 for 27 on the year. (9) ARQUE HANOVER comes out of the same race as #6 and did finish ahead of him that night. I wouldn't be shocked if this classy one came to play at a price.

Race 13: Non-winners $2,055 in last 4 or TM 75 or less

(3) MARVALOUS ONE comes out of string of races that have gone much faster than this one will go. It's hard to like any horse that has no wins or seconds in nine starts on the year, but this does seem to be the right spot. (9) CONSTNTLYSIDEWYS A switched barns, took a vacation and raced well in his return. (7) STIRLING ENSIGN almost went down the road the last time Yannick was in the bike. (10) ROCKINWITHTHEBEST showed some improvement last time but has a tough task ahead from the bad starting spot.