Meadowlands

Meadowlands: Analysis for Friday 7/22

Derick Giwner|Jul 20, 2022

CHAMPIONSHIP MEET STATS: 278-90-65-37 / $486.00 (-$70.00)

BEST BETS: 22-14-2-2 / $51.00 (+7.00)

SPOT PLAYS: 21-5-6-2 / $17.60 (-$24.40)

BEST BET: DIRE STRAITS (4th)

SPOT PLAY: TAKEN CONTROL (5th)

Race 1: TrackMaster 70 (NW L3/5 70.5/71) or less Series/Opt. $5,000 Clm. - Pick 5

(5) ILLINI DUKE was a runaway winner with a catch-driver two starts back and there is no reason to believe he won't put up a repeat performance in an even lower TrackMaster condition. (2) SHIP WRECK BEACK K hails from the same barn as the top pick and could easily improve in his second start out with Dunn added to the mix. (9) ALWAYS A FORCE has been racing well but needs to find enough early speed and a cozy tuck to make some noise from the outside post.

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Race 2: Non-winners 2 races or $30,000 life/Maidens draw inside

(6) WILD OATS comes in with a breaking issue but tends to do good work when he gets to roll along on the engine and that's what should be happening here versus younger foes. (3) CHULO is another prone to mistakes but with some talent. (2) KEN'S WALNER chasing a good foe in that last qualifier should negate the month missed. The question here is whether this is a test to see if he can somehow turn the corner in time for the Hambletonian or just a go around the track to prepare for something else.

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Race 3: NJ Sire Stakes 2YO Colt Trot Consolation - Survivor 7

(2) WINNER'S BET chased slow fractions and finished up willingly in his career debut and he won't have to step up his game much to take these. (3) D’APPER took care of business in his first start but got scratched last time. After a four-week break, I'd need to see him on the track before considering. (8) PURPLE LORD picked up his game last time but may need to pass a bunch to get involved. (9) GO REV wasn't bad in the morning and now he adds Gingras. (6) CHALLENGER adds Dunn and is worth at least some consideration.

Race 4: NJ Sire Stakes 2YO Colt Trot Final

(10) DIRE STRAITS got unlucky with the draw and the driver change to Miller won't help his price any, but he's looked like the best in the series through the first two legs and I'm staying on the train. (2) OH WELL and (7) UPSTAGED have both displayed high ability for trainer Marcus Melander and Tim Tetrick had his choice of the pair. We give the slight edge to the former since that was the driver's choice. (9) CELEBRITY BAMBINO owns the fastest win time of the group and it came over my top pick.

Race 5: Non-winners $3,000 (NW L3 $3,835) in last 5/TM 76.5 (NW L3/2L8 77/77.52) or less

(1) TAKEN CONTROL stopped badly last time but is right back in the box this week. I'm going to treat her last race as an anomaly and expect a much better performance from off the pace. (4) ODDS ON DEAT HEAT is hard to gauge coming in from Buffalo but this barn has done good work with fresh shippers. (3) MARVELOUS KISS has been caught in some fast miles lately and might be a threat here with a smooth trip.

Race 6: NJ Sire Stakes 2YO Filly Pace - $50K GTD Pick 4

(5) UCANDOIT BLUE CHIP came first-over last time and simply wore down the leaders. Filly from the first crop of the hard-knocking Keystone Velocity seems to have some guts and pure speed. (2) LISA LANE basically took the week off in leg two and draws nicely here for the final. She should offer a big price and can definitely outperform her odds. (1) FOX VALLEY ADELE tried to squeeze up the pylons last time and had a bit of trouble finding a clean path. I don't think she would've won anyway but it was close.

Race 7: Non-winners 2-3 races or $20,000-30,000 life/Maidens draw inside

(5) MAC'S MARVEL has been doing his best to close from outside posts at Philly. Three-year-old adds Lasix tonight and lands in a perfect post to control his destiny. (6) ALL ABOUT THE HUNT has raced very well in all three starts and is the one to beat. (8) GROOVY MAN switches barns, which can always help a horse perk up. Notice that he chased some very nice Open horses in the qualifier.

Race 8: NJ Sire Stakes 2YO Filly Trot - Pick 6

(4) GRAND FASHION, a full sister to one of the favorites heading into this year's Hambletonian Oaks, was fix deep going into the first turn and cruised to an easy victory a couple of weeks ago. Walner filly clearly has big ability and could actually offer some value in a talented field. (9) MONI LISA closed from an impossible spot to just miss in her lone start. I have no questions as to whether she has ability but at least one big one as to whether she'll be put in play. If she's 6-1 or higher, I'd roll the dice. (7) MAMBACITA is perfect in two starts and has won them both by open lengths. (1) WALNER PAYTON displayed speed at both ends of the mile in victory last time out.

Race 9: TrackMaster 74 (NW L3/5 74.5/75) or less Series

(6) SCRAPPIN GOLD came up just short last time but really doesn't face much here. His recent seconditis is concerning but he does look best. (1) GRATEFUL KISS and (2) FINAL JUSTICE are great at staying close and closing in late. With the right trip either could be a player. (4) DANDY IDEA picks up Tetrick after a couple of starts with the trainer in the bike.

Race 10: NJ Sire Stakes 2YO Colt Pace Final - $50K GTD Pick 4

(1) VOUKEFALAS has come up third best behind (7) HANDLELIKEAPORSCHE and (5) LIFES A PUZZLE in their first two meetings but has also been pacing fastest in the late stages of those races. Hopefully Stratton will keep this guy a bit closer now so gaining a couple of lengths late will be enough. The latter pair has split wins in their first two starts and clearly rank as the likely favorites.

Race 11: Non-winners $3,000 (NW L3 $3,331) in last 5/TM 76.5 (NW L3/5 77.3/77.65) or less

(5) HAMMER TIME gets monster driver and trainer changes here. The recent breaking trouble is slightly concerning but I'm not expecting it to come into play. (3) ALL RISE scored impressively at first asking for new trainer Quevedo and can certainly step up his game on the big track. It is worth noting that McCarthy picked off to drive the enigmatic 14-year-old Quick Deal, who years ago would laugh at this field and win by a dozen lengths. (2) SPIRIT OF DEO is a capable mare when she decides to behave.

Race 12: TrackMaster 74 (NW L3/5 74.5/75) or less Series

(6) LOVE YOURSELF dug a big early hole for himself and even a 27 1/5 final quarter couldn't get him out of it; another shot in a dull field. (5) BARGAIN SHOPPER has the early speed to get into play and has been racing reasonably well in this class. (2) MCKEE CREEK raced evenly in his first try for this barn and can improve.

Race 13: TrackMaster 70 (NW L3/5 70.5/71) or less Series/Opt. $5,000 Clm.

(7) SIX DAY WARS faces a blank field and has the early speed to go wire to wire, though again McCarthy went elsewhere and landed on #4. (2) PETER PUMPKINEATER gets a better post and a catch-driver this week. (4) LOVELY LADY MAY switches barns so she can compete here. Her recent times at Pocono are competitive. (8) S MCKEE fits with this group if good to go following the missed week.