Meadowlands: Analysis for Friday 7/17

CHAMPIONSHIP MEET STATS: 122-34-24-20 / $151.60 (-$92.40)
BEST BETS: 9-4-3-1 / $11.60 (-$6.40)
BEST BET: CHIPLOSIVE (1st)
SPOT PLAY: TOPOFTHEHILL S (3rd)

Race 1: Non-winners $4,000 in last /TM Rating 78.5 or less - $40K GTD Pick 5

(5) CHIPLOSIVE lost two starts at Philly to a reasonably talented 3-year-old filly and was in way too tough three starts back over this surface. Four-year-old should fit nicely in this field and I'm expecting a big mile. (3) BIZET is in a winning class. Can he finally work out the right trip? (7) ONE DIRECTION has big early speed and if Gingras guns out, he could be a player. (9) WHAT CHAPTER needs to stay trotting and find a way to overcome the post to threaten; demand some value.

Race 2: NJ Sire Stakes 2YO C&G Trot

I'm going to look past last week and go with two horses that made mistakes but have talent. (2) SPY BOOTH broke before the start but recovered nicely last time. Expensive yearling has plenty of ability and only needs to mind his manners. (8) ZENITH STRIDE was a solid second behind a potential killer in his July 3 qualifier. Don't let the break last time steer you away. (6) CALLE PALEMA comes off a decent effort. If the top ones break again, he's your man.

Race 3: NJ Sire Stakes 2YO C&G Trot

(9) TOPOFTHEHILL S was very controllable on the lead last time, perhaps too much, and that allowed another foe to out-sprint him in the stretch. If Melander lets him out a notch this time, he should be able to go coast to coast. (7) SONOFAMISTERY was on his way to the winner's circle when he broke last Friday; obvious threat. (1) NARZARIO moves to the inside of the gate and might find some early speed.

Race 4: NJ Sire Stakes 2YO C&G Trot - Pick 6

(2) MON AMOUR set a decent clip and was safely clear of the second and third finishers, who both are in this field. I don't know that I'm confident, but he looks like a legitimate favorite. (6) MOONSTONE S raced well from off the pace to be third behind the top pick; maybe early speed tonight? (1) RARE MUSCLE improved in his second qualifier and he picks up Tetrick here. (9) IZNOGOUD AM S certainly has a shot but was done no favors by the post-position gods.

Race 5: Non-winners 1 race or $7,500 life

(7) DREAM CHAPTER looked great in the mornings and I believe this daughter of Chapter Seven could be something special at this point. (8) VENERATE closed nicely in his lone qualifier. He's the first foal from this mare. (10) MAY KARP was a decent third behind Insta Glam in her debut. She could offer some good value from post 10. (5) GOODASHIM has a big time on his card because he chased a speedball in his last qualifier; underlay.

Race 6: Non-winners $7,000 in last 5/Opt. $20K Clm. - $50K GTD Pick 4

(6) HASHTAGMADEYALOOK takes a significant drop in class, adds Tetrick and should be pointed down the road. (2) SOUTHWIND FROST has early speed and decent form but doesn't want to win; underneath only. (1) BIODETTI HANOVER showed major improvement last time. Could he be ready to pop a big mile here?

Race 7: NJ Sire Stakes 2YO Filly Trot

(2) AUNT IRENE, a half-sister to the great Shake It Cerry, has looked spectacular in the mornings. Homebred could be anything for Team Takter. (7) ALTAR left well but may have gotten a bit stressed trying to make the front. Muscle Hill filly has ability and needs to mind her manners here to find her way into the final. (1) BEAUTIFUL GAME looks like a decent horse but needs to show me she can go a bit faster.

Race 8: Non-winners $2,500 in last 5

(5) THE MIGHTY MARNER has raced reasonably well in two starts since returning to action and gets a very weak call in a formless field. (2) HEARTLAND ECLIPSE looks to be a good fit in this condition, but this barn is 0-for-23. On the plus side, he picks up Tetrick. (3) PROPHET BLUE CHIP had some late pace last time.

Race 9: Non-winners $7,000 in last 5/TM Rating 81.51 or less

(1) APPLE HANOVER has been racing well but lacking the needed late kick. It won't get much easier than this spot. (3) BROOKLYN LILACS has been facing good company lately and should be ready for her best in her third start back. (9) EXOTIC DANCE is certainly sharp and only needs to work out a decent trip to be a player.

Race 10: Open Handicap - $40K GTD Pick 4

(6) IT'S A HERBIE is a huge question mark here stepping up to face this caliber of foes, but I have serious doubts as to how hard some of these are going to go with next weekend's Spirit of Massachusetts the main goal. I'll roll the dice on this guy. (8) LINDY THE GREAT charged home to be second behind perhaps the two best older trotters in the sport. Everybody saw it and the price will reflect it. (1) BETTING GANGSTER S was no match against When Dovescry in his lone qualifier after shipping in from Sweden. He did make over $400K overseas and they didn't bring him here for nothing.

Race 11: NJ Sire Stakes 2YO Filly Trot

(6) MUSCLE DOLLY went a big trip, leaving and then attacking uncovered in her career debut. Muscle Hill filly seems to have some ability. (9) HOT AS HILL flashed speed at both ends of the mile to win going away last week. (3) CHABLIS gunned off the gate from the inside but took a shuffle and didn't have a big enough finishing kick. She should be forwardly placed here.

Race 12: Trackmaster Rating 73.5 or less

(3) NAMEISONTHEHALTER, (5) SPONDULICKS N and (2) BLACK HAMMER have all been racing reasonably well at this level. In a very soft group of pacers, they look like the main players. (9) DRAMATIC POINT gets a major driver change from the trainer to Brian Sears and is certainly worth considering.

Race 13: Non-winners $4,000 in last 5/TM Rating 80.1 or less

(1) CITY HALL rallied well from an impossible spot last week. Meadowlands lover should still offer value here and can get away closer from the inside post. (6) STATEMENT MADE A comes out of a very fast mile and drops in class. He's the likely favorite and a clear threat to win. (8) IM A DIRECTOR N hasn't exactly been sharp so far for a barn that has been having plenty of success; class drop. (2) IDEAL CHILL should stay close to the pace and get into the number.