Meadowlands: Analysis for Friday 7/11

CHAMPIONSHIP MEET STATS: 275-89-45-33 / $511.30 (-$38.70)

BEST BETS: 20-7-6-1 / $34.00 (-$6.00)

SPOT PLAYS: 19-4-2-5 / $45.20 (+$7.20)

BEST BET: MR MOUTON (3^rd)

SPOT PLAY: I’M KRONOS S (9^th)

Race 1: Meadowlands Amateur Drivers Club 1 Pace - Pick 5

(1) DUNSAN HARRY isn’t known for his blazing speed off the gate but catches a field that seems to generally lack that quality. He’s down in class, has a top amateur, and is capable of pushing away enough from the pylons to stick close. (3) SUNSHINE’S FINEST returns to the amateur ranks in an easy spot and if this barn can figure out a way to awaken, perhaps this guy can win. (5) TRY LINE is another landing back in a MADC event who could awaken versus softer foes. (2) IAMMRBRIGHTSIDE N beat lesser when last seen four weeks ago. He’s got a chance here but I’m leaning against this 15-year-old given the missed time and the fact that if he wins he’ll go over the earnings threshold and be done for his career.

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Race 2: NJ Sire Stakes 2YO Filly Trot

(5) NO PROMISES tucked, came wide and seemed to have a nose for the wire in her latest qualifier and the final time was sharp. I’d be willing to take a shot with her assuming she isn’t the favorite. (7) NIGHT FRENCH GIRL seems likely to get favoritism status and it’s warranted off a nice debut mile and some sharp qualifiers. (8) SPRING KISS was never asked and finished up her mile with some sneaky trot on her own most recently. This barn tends to send them ready to roll. (2) WHATARACE HANOVER improved nicely in her second qualifier and had trot late with no real chance of gaining ground. Note that she’s a half-sister to What A Bid Hanover, who earned $297K last year as a 2-year-old.

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Race 3: Winners 2-4 (NW L2 5) races or $50,000 (NW L2 $62,500) life/NW 2 or $26,000 draw inside - Survivor 7

(3) MR MOUTON was a good second behind one of the best 3-year-old trotters in training last time. Yes, he faces older here, but none of them have his talent. (1) MOUNTCASTLE wasn’t put in play but finished well for third in the Reynolds last time out. His chances are dependent on the trip he gets. (8) EXCALIBER BI couldn’t touch another nice 3-year-old in Monserrate last time. Still, he’s a 5-year-old facing younger and he has big early speed to make his presence felt.

Race 4: NJ Sire Stakes 2YO Filly Trot

(4) NIGHTCAP MEARAS S was in traffic and under a hold in that fifth-place finish last time so don’t let it fool you. There could be huge value here if she’s put in play. (8) WALDON FASHION was super in her career debut and I believe she has plenty of talent. My one bit of caution is that sometimes trainers don’t like to put their 2-year-olds on the lead in consecutive starts. (7) LUCILLE WALNER was an impressive and confident winner in her most recent morning effort despite the slower time. (6) SPARKS rallied nicely and dropped three seconds of time. She seems ready for her first career start. (2) OPULENCE has turned in two straight good efforts on paper but I thought she was perhaps a bit steppy in her most recent try.

Race 5: NJ Sire Stakes 2YO C&G Pace

(1) ROCKNACIOUS is the first foal from $1.1 million earner Rocknificent, who is one of two foals (both by Captaintreacherous) from Rocklamation (the other is Rocket Deo) to pace sub 1:49 winning miles. I loved his last effort in the morning when he waited at the back and rallied nicely. (3) A LITTLE KICK was all out chasing the leader last time in a pretty fast morning mile over what looked like a moist Philly track. Was he only that fast because of chasing or does he have more progression to come? (7) EVERLAST STING DEO dropped five seconds in his last qualifier and comes in for very capable connections.

Race 6: NJ Sire Stakes 2YO C&G Trot - $50K GTD Pick 4

I wonder if (1) MAGA HILL was a bit of a surprise for trainer Ron Burke because after a pair of qualifiers he was added as owner along with Weaver Bruscemi. Was that a clerical error or did they buy in after a sizzling 1:56 2/5 effort at Gaitway last time with hobbles added. Muscle Hill colt really wasn’t pushed in either effort and he seems to have plenty of ability. (2) MEGA SHARK missed by just a neck in his debut and is one of a few from this barn that look like they’ll be heard from this year. (5) APEX comes off a really nice qualifier where he felt some whip taps, gained mildly and was sort of shut down late. This is the fifth foal from the great Mission Brief. The first four haven’t been big earners but they’ve shown some ability. Maybe he’ll be the one. (8) SOUTHWIND ALAMO looked good qualifying and had no trouble going all the way on the engine in his debut. He’s a threat but I wouldn’t want a short price.

Race 7: NJ Sire Stakes 2YO Filly Pace

The fillies division for the pacers seems much more competitive with many ways you can go. (2) INFALLIBLE absolutely powered away from the competition in her lone qualifier and was by far the fastest 2-year-old pacer of the six Magical Acres events that day. With others showing faster times and David Miller choosing stablemate #8, we could find some value here. (11) BE PERFECT BG rolled to a five length win to start her career at Mohawk; big chance! (10) PERFECT THOUGHT got just a few whip reminders while romping to an impressive 1:54 4/5 morning win at Pocono. Horses from The Stable tend to come out firing. (3) LADYSASSIN won her debut and is clearly a threat again. (8) NAPALM isn’t going to turn many heads with the slowest times in the field. And she’s proven to be slow away from the gate. That said, she’s got a big engine and if they mix it up she’ll be coming hard.

Race 8: NJ Sire Stakes 2YO Filly Trot - Pick 6

(1) PRETTY PICKY turned in two really sharp qualifiers and I have every confidence that she can drop a ton of time. The question is whether she can shed enough to battle with (4) SUGAR PACKET and (6) ABBEY BLUE CHIP, who both have a start under their belts. The former was spectacular at Mohawk and really does look like a 3-5 shot on paper. The latter did her good work here off rated fractions.

Race 9: NJ Sire Stakes 2YO C&G Trot

(2) I’M KRONOS S really caught my eye during his morning sessions and I love the fact that he took air and was an easy winner last time. This $310,000 yearling purchase is a Walner brother to recent 1:51 4/5 Reynolds winner Gap Kronos S. (3) DIABOLIC HILL rolled on home to win his first career start and he’s clearly a threat again here. (1) ROYAL DRIVE dug in nicely under some whip taps in his only morning start. Homebred is a half-brother to Ohio bred Royal Precedent, who won five of nine starts at 2 with a solid 1:56 1/5 mark that year on a five-eighths.

Race 10: NJ Sire Stakes 2YO C&G Pace - $50K GTD Pick 4

If you are going to bet horses, as important as having a strong opinion is knowing when you don’t. None of these have stood out for me in the morning or their races. I’ll take a shot with (1) BE STING, who goes out for a barn that tends to have them ready at first asking. This one is also out of Odds On St Lucie, whose only other foal was a solid second in her first three NJSS starts to begin her career and posted a 1:52 2/5 win that year. (2) REINCARNATED raced well in him debut at Goshen on Sunday and that should have her tight for this race. (3) SONOFANUTCRACKER finished second on debut at Philly and is worth a look.

Race 11: Trackmaster 71 (NW L2 73) or less

(5) C KAN TROT was used hard to make the front and simply didn’t have enough for the deep stretch drive. The trip should be much easier from this better post against a soft group. (2) SAINTS PRESERVE US rallied past the top one to be second last time and clearly ranks as a major contender here. (4) LANDIA took a ton of air last weekend and paid the price; also moves inside.

Race 12: Non-winners $2,500 (NW L2 $3,000) in last 5/TM 76 or less

(1) BALENCIAGA missed well over a year but finally seems to be back on the right track. In a blank field without much form, I’ll take a shot. (2) CRAIGIEBURN has gotten his act together since returning to The Meadowlands. (4) CRYSTAL FASHION is a double millionaire that has clearly lost a step or two. That said, he was second in this class two starts back.

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Race 13: NJ Sire Stakes 2YO C&G Trot

(4) STEELWORKERS STORY came away from the gate pretty well in his latest qualifier and while he lost by a lot, I believe that came at the hands of a nice foe in my race six top pick. If that one comes up big, upgrade this guy further. (1) NIX NACKEN drew clear nicely when asked last out. The Melander barn tends to send them to the track ready and this was Zeron’s choice over my pick. (8) TACTICAL RED has qualified pretty well out of town and it is nice that he has early speed.

Race 14: Trackmaster 68 (NW L2 70) or less

(1) WARRAWEE XCEED hasn’t won much over the last two years but boy is this an ideal spot where he can leave around the #1 and sit an ideal trip. (3) MOONWARDS HANOVER is probably a 4-5 favorite on paper, but wins have been tough to come by lately. (4) CAMLACHIE CHROME was purchased online for $4,400 and many people will be instantly interesting on the driver and trainer change angles. That said, Hernandez has only had the horse for less than a week.