Meadowlands: Analysis for Friday 6/19

CHAMPIONSHIP MEET STATS: 26-9-6-2 / $41.20 (-$10.80)
BEST BETS: 2-0-0-1 / $0.00 (-$4.00)
BEST BET: EYE POPPING (18th)
SPOT PLAY: SOHO BURNING LOVE A (14th)
Race 1: NJSS 3YO Filly Trot - Pick 5

(1) VIOLET STRIDE lacked 26-second speed in her first start since November, but her qualifier before that was sharp and I expect a big effort now. (2) FORTUNE STARLET hasn't been seen since being crowned the NJSS champ at age 2. The comeback qualifier says she is ready. (7) TRICKY SISTER might be at the mercy of the pace setup, but she has clearly gotten faster over the winter.

Race 2: NJSS 3YO Filly Trot

(3) SPOILED PRINCESS finished side-by-side with #1 in the first race, so maybe bump her up if that one wins. Nifty Norman-trained filly was positioned in stakes last year and I expect her to be sharper with the start under her belt. (5) AB’SATTITUDEXPRESS came home well in that second qualifier and did well last year. I have a feeling we might see early speed tonight. (6) CAVIART EVA will most likely be a heavy favorite and I'm just not sold on her as the chalk.

Race 3: Non-winners 2 races or $20,000 life

(2) SERMON finished up his qualifying mile nicely while showing no signs of breaking. He may need a start before showing his best, but with the undefeated (7) HOLLYWOOD STORY signed on, at least the price should be fair. The latter is clearly the one to beat but far from a lock. (1) FATHER DUNN closed well to just miss second while losing to a talented horse in Big Oil. This guy will definitely be on my Pick 5 ticket. (4) HILLEXOTIC is a high-priced 3-year-old making his career debut off two winning qualifiers. Smedshammer usually brings them to the track ready.

Race 4: Miss Versatility - Pick 6

(6) MANCHEGO drew away from a decent field in her 2020 debut like they were chopped liver. I just don’t see how you can pick against and I wouldn’t be shocked if she put in a sub 1:50 mile considering the heat and humidity expected for Friday. (4) ATLANTA qualified back well but I'm not expecting her to be sharp enough off the bench to beat Manchego. (7) FELICITYSHAGWELL S is a decent-looking overseas prospect who couldn't have picked a tougher spot to start her U.S. career.

Race 5: NJSS 3YO Filly Pace

(6) ODDS ON SARASOTA lost by 16 lengths in her first start of the year, but she was facing a filly with unlimited potential. You have to like that she can make the front and there really isn't much to fear in this field. (1) THUNDRA comes off a nice win and should battle for favoritism with the top pick. This looks like a two-horse race. (8) BIGFORHERBRITCHES wasn't awful in her qualifier and this barn has been sending out winners in spades. (3) WYNONA STRIDED clearly needed the qualifier and does add Dunn now; low exotics player.

Race 6: Non-winners 3-4 races or $40,000 life - Pick 4

(1) KING ALPHONSO came up short in his comeback qualifier, but don't put too much weight on that mile. Trainer Ake Svanstedt is skilled at having horses ready off the bench and this guy has some go in the tank. (2) CHESTNUT HILL raced reasonably well in his first start of 2020. I believe there is ability here, though I doubt you'll get fair value, which is probably about 5-1. (7) DAYTONA DREAMIN dropped plenty of time while finishing well in his first start of the year. He could be dangerous for solid connections, though Dunn did choose #4. (9) BEYOND KRONOS chased home a good foe in that last qualifier. He’s another colt with potential in a field full of possibilities.

Race 7: Non-winners 2 races or $20,000 life

(10) HELLO TOMORROW is a bit behind the eight-ball with the other standouts in the race just to her inside. That said, the horses on the inside of the gate are weak and Tetrick should be able to leave for position. (8) IMPRESSIVE FASHION has one good qualifier where she was very sharp and one where she broke. She's a player at anything close to her "A" game. (6) NEVER COUNT qualified back ok and drew inside the main players.

Race 8: NJSS 3YO C&G Trot

(3) TOCCOA FALLS trotted home nicely with no shot after starting from post 10 last Friday. He should be tighter now and this barn is good with trotters. (9) PLAY TRIX ON ME was the NJ Sire Stakes champion last year after a 14-length romp. He's got a big shot in here despite post 9. (7) JULA TRIX TREASURE wasn’t awful in his qualifier and I wouldn’t be shocked if he picked up his game.

Race 9: Non-winners $7,500 in last 5

(1) FRIEND OF NATURE S didn’t come over from Sweden for the fresh air. I'm willing to take a flyer here in a wide-open race. (3) CREDIT FRAUD lands in a decent spot and Abbatiello pulled off a big upset last weekend. (6) SOUTHWIND FROST got caught in a fast mile in his first post COVID-19 start; expecting more here. (12) FASHION CREDITOR raced well last week and is very comfortable in this class.

Race 10: NJSS 3YO C&G Pace - Pick 4

(6) VILLIAM pulled off a shocker at 85-1 to win the NJSS final last year. He looks as fast as any of these on paper and was only a few lengths behind Moneyman Hill last week. That one would be 1-9 in this field. (8) ROCK N TEEN was racing well at The Meadows back in March and now he returns in a good barn with Lasix added; threat. (4) ROCK ME HARD sprinted home in 25 3/5 from an impossible spot a couple of weeks back. That mile leaves hope for good things to come. (10) CEDAR HALL HEAVEN debuts for Team Miller and the qualifiers weren't bad; post hurts.

Race 11: Trackmaster Rating 74.5 or less

(7) MARY CATHERINE A has a pair of solid qualifiers under her belt and finds a very soft spot due to a string of outside posts versus better pre-COVID-19. (8) DIAMONDS ARE TRUMP moves into a good barn and adds Lasix; worth using. (1) HURRIKANE LORI ANN is hard to love on paper, but she gets a huge class break from the competition last week. (11) DANGEROUSPRECEDENT was racing well here a few months back and the comeback qualifiers are good.

Race 12: Non-winners $10,000 in last 5

(2) MY RUEBE STAR N was used and just kept going to destroy a slightly easier group. Unless one of these step up their games this week, she's headed back to the winner's circle for a barn that has a perfect 2-for-2 record since coming to America. (5) JB’S SHOOTING STAR couldn't get close to the top pick last time, but she adds Gingras now and should be tighter with the start under her belt. (3) OCEANIA has some class and raced well last time. She also got loyalty from Marohn, who chose her over #5.

Race 13: Non-Winners 4/5 races or $50,000/$61,500 life

(4) MARLOE HANOVER did her best last time from post 10 as she got stacked up behind too many horses in the outer flow. Kindergarten winner from last year should be tighter now and ready to make some noise. (3) ALEXIS’S BEACH upset last time and remains dangerous for Pelling. (6) CHARLOTTE ROYAL N lacked a stretch rally after being used to tuck and brush earlier in the mile. Don't be shocked if she improves in her second stateside start.

Race 14: Non-winners $22,500 in last 5 or 10 races life - Pick 5

(1) SOHO BURNING LOVE A only has a trio of starts on these shores, but I've seen enough to know she is plenty talented. She's been mostly handled with care. Hopefully Tetrick will keep her close to speedy contender (2) APPLE BOTTOM JEANS and in position to pounce. The latter has been in-the-money 67 times in 87 career starts and tends to prove tough when she drops out of the Open ranks. (4) PHILLY HANOVER is a talented 4-year-old that may just be able to hold her own facing older company. (3) ALEXA'S POWER couldn’t have looked any better winning the Magical Acres qualifier on June 9, but boy did she find a tough spot to kick off 2020.

Race 15: Non-winners $5,000 in last 5/$15,000Clm - Pick 4

(12) QUITE A SIGHT comes off two really nice qualifiers and returns to the races down in class for a barn that is clicking at a 31% clip since racing returned on June 5. My only concern is post 12, though it is better than being bottled up in post 11. (2) BRONZE OVER N gets post and class relief. She’s a viable back-up plan in the Pick 4/5. (5) EXOTIC DANCE actually improved in her last qualifier despite finishing seventh. She took on some salty foes. (7) BE BEST adds Dunn and is worth some consideration.

Race 16: Non-winners $15,000 in last 5 or 8 races or $100,000 life

(2) NOWS THE MOMENT is a fast horse picking up a driver that fits his style. He should be sitting no worse than second with a huge chance to win. (4) GRANDMA HEIDI threw it down with a monster 1:51 mile last week. Is she that good? We'll find out more this week. (6) BUEN CAMINO was used hard and weakened in his first start back. I expect different tactics now and he has a shot. (1) TOP FLIGHT ANGEL and (3) RESITA both have a shot with a decent trip.

Race 17: Non-winners 2/3 races or $20,000 life

(4) SO NICE HANOVER started off her 3-year-old season with a win in this class and now you are going to get an decent price because of the presence of (2) LADY LOU. The latter wowed in both qualifiers, but while she won in-hand last time, she was hot when sent to the front and might be susceptible late if not more controllable. (1) ANTHEM rallied well in her start last weekend.

Race 18: Non-winners 1 race or $7,500 life

(7) EYE POPPING showed big speed off the gate last time and raced very well to be a willing third. I'm all-in on her in this spot. (6) RODEO BEACH also displayed early speed in the same race as the top pick and didn’t finish far behind. (1) SPECIAL GRADUATE was clearly short in her first start since last August; more now? (10) BRUSH N CRUSH qualified well but drew poorly.