Meadowlands

Meadowlands: Analysis for Friday 5/6

Derick Giwner|May 04, 2022

FINAL WINTER MEET STATS: 388-93-68-61 / $560.20 (-$215.80)

BEST BETS: 29-16-5-2 / $57.60 (-.40)

SPOT PLAYS: 29-8-8-2 / $60.00 (+$2.00)

BEST BET: GRACELYN HANOVER (11th)

SPOT PLAY: BULLY BOY HILL (2nd)

Race 1: GSY 1 Pace - Pick 5

We're taking a bit of a chance here considering that driver Cameron Capone seems to be making his pari-mutuel debut, but if I can win a betting race anyone can. (3) DARTH VADER really isn't in bad form, even though his 0-for-11 record on the year suggests otherwise. Capone simply needs to put him in a decent spot. (6) HAYMITCH changed tactics last time and swerved between foes in the stretch last time to gain spots. Monaco could easily revert to early speed here. (10) A B COLLINS displayed good speed last time and finished a good second. If he can get a clear path to the top, watch out. (4) TAKEITTOTHEFACE benefitted from a fast pace last time and he'll be coming late if it happens again.

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Race 2: Non-winners 2 races or $22,501 life/Maidens draw inside

(2) BULLY BOY HILL got some equipment changes last time including trotting hobbles and showed no signs of breaking trouble during the mile. It is also worth noting that she actually came off the gate well but was guided off the pace. In a field full of question marks, maybe this guy is handled more aggressively here. (4) ZAPPA finished with something left in his first qualifier and was stretched out a bit last time. Chapter Seven colt still seems like a bit of a project to me but perhaps one that could pay dividends here. (1) FRANK THE ELDER is another who added hobbles last time and improved; more now?

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Race 3: New Jersey Sire Stakes 3YO Colt Trot - Survivor 7

(4) UNBEATABLE KEMP is an interesting shipper coming down from Canada. He was a willing second on an "off" track last time behind a runaway winner who has taken four straight. There could be some ability here and he certainly has a conditioning edge on some of these off qualifiers. (3) SENNA has looked good in each start this year but does tackle a better overall group. (6) TESTING TESTING was kept off the gate in his last qualifier and finished up well late in the mile. Breeders Crown elimination winner has talent but may get a conservative steer here. (2) TEMPORAL HANOVER is the most accomplished of the group from last year but may need a start with only one 1:57 1/5 qualifier on his lines.

Race 4: New Jersey Sire Stakes 3YO Colt Trot

(3) ROBERTSIN showed what he could do as a 2-year-old while failing to win any stakes. His comeback qualifier saw him trapped through the stretch with no chance to show how much was left in the tank. I see potential to get a bit of value on this guy. (7) B A SUPERHERO has to be the horse to beat off a very professional 2022 debut win. (8) LOOKS LIKE MONI was beaten in 1:52 /45 as a 2-year-old so you know the speed is there. Qualifier was good and notice he's a gelding now, so perhaps that will help the light switch go on; playable.

Race 5: GSY 1 Pace

(1) S MCKEE doesn't win that often but these are the spots where he normally comes through. Cano is very capable in the bike and should have him close in a field that seems to lack an abundance of early speed. (10) KINGOFTHEJUNGLE is the one horse in the field that almost always leaves and if none of the rest go hard he'll be in a winning position. (8) FERNADO raced well when last here and is the one other horse I feel could be firing hard early.

Race 6: Miss Versatility Mare Trot - $50K GTD Pick 4

(6) NEXT LEVEL STUFF looked awesome in her second qualifier and followed it up with a powerful effort two weeks back. Five-year-old has a clear conditioning edge on her rivals and the early speed to control the tempo. (2) BELLA BELLINI finished nicely while second best to Atlanta in her most recent morning effort. She's a threat here but one that will have to run down the top pick from behind; needs a clean trip. (4) KATIE’S LUCKY DAY has a couple of preps under her belt but needs to find more against this group.

Race 7: GSY 1 Pace

We don't see many amateur races produce back-to-back winners but (1) FERNINDAND A has a great shot as the one verified early speed horse starting from the cones. Slendorn is sure to be firing out and he’s proven a master at winning from the pocket or three-hole up the inside. (2) CASINO BAGS ANSO enters the amateur ranks off some good miles and Beltrami only needs to keep him in contention to have a shot. (5) CAPTAIN’S REIGN won in this class two back and raced well against slightly better last time.

Race 8: New Jersey Sire Stakes 3YO Colt Trot - Pick 6

(4) PERICULUM was a 2-year-old stakes winner so the talent is certainly there. In his lone comeback qualifier he could’ve left but elected to be more conservative. In the stretch the son of Muscle Hill rallied very willingly into third but seemed to flatten just before the wire. Maybe he needed the mile or maybe an equipment change will be coming. Either way, he should be live at a decent price. (3) JACK RABBIT SLIMS has looked the part with a perfect record at Hoosier. The final times seem to stack up for the first Sire Stakes of the year. (2) GAELIHILL was a solid second in his 2022 debut and any step forward would put him in the win picture. (9) EL TORO LOCO put up good efforts at Pocono and the switch to Tetrick is a nice one.

Race 9: New Jersey Sire Stakes 3YO Filly Trot

This is a Hambletonian Oaks-quality field and ultimately I'd like to land where the value is at post time. Unfortunately I'm not exactly sure how the public will act with returning champion Venerable off a fourth in her qualifier versus a few others coming off wins. Going with what I've seen in the here and now, (3) JIGGY JOG S blazed a mile that wasn't far off from the older Open trotters in her lone qualifier and was almost as fast as Venerable last year. She deserves top billing for a barn that tends to have them ready. (5) YANABA has been nothing short of spectacular in 2022 and Daley certainly knows how to condition a good trotter. (4) FASHION SCHOONER possesses unlimited ability in my opinion; huge test here. (2) VENERABLE could be ready to win but I think she'll be looking to race off a helmet and some of these could prove tough to run down.

Race 10: Miss Versatility Mare Trot - $50K GTD Pick 4

Let's roll the dice here with (3) ROYALTY DEAL, who was following dull cover and came home full of trot in her first start of the year behind her very sharp stablemate Next Level Stuff. She clearly isn't the horse that (2) ATLANTA is when at her best, but that one is going to be 3-5 off just a 1:56 1/5 qualifier, albeit an eye-catching one. If she can drop four seconds tonight to beat me, so be it. (6) HERCULISA beat a decent field at Miami Valley in her first start as a 4-year-old and with some improvement she could make some noise here.

Race 11: New Jersey Sire Stakes 3YO Filly Trot

(1) GRACELYN HANOVER lucked into the much, much softer division of this Sire Stakes class. Walner filly has plenty of talent and only needs to learn to settle down a bit to move to the next level. As far as tonight, she really has no excuses. (2) I’M HAPPY HANOVER had absolutely no chance in her first start of the year from post 10 and I wouldn't be shocked if she stepped up this time. (5) PEYTON HANOVER raced in stakes all year in 2021 and was just a fringe player. Has she improved over the winter? I’m not sure.

Race 12: Non-winners $3,000 (NW L5 $3,675) in last 5/TM 77.7 or less

(6) KISS AN ANGEL threw in an absolute clunker last time at Pocono and when I see races like that out of nowhere I just draw a line through them. Two starts back this gal raced very well here in this class. (8) KEYSTONE BLADE arrived here from Florida and was super. Anything close to that mile puts him in contention, though Gingras chose #7. (9) FOR A DREAMER did just as well if not better than #8 down in Florida and deserves consideration.

Race 13: Non-winners $7,500 in last 5 or in 2022 or 5 races life/TM 83.80 or less

(5) GREAT UNKNOWN was too far back last time and couldn't quite get there in the lane. If Tetrick can keep him a bit closer he has a big shot. (2) SHINKANSEN found himself over the winter and won at first asking. Maybe he's just a better horse now. Dunn is off but only because he had no drives in the 11th or 12th and is leaving early. (4) JOHAN PALEMA would win this race by a half-dozen lengths at his best but is coming off a sketchy qualifier and I'm not sure what to expect. I'll take a long look at him in the post parade. (9) CINDY MICHELLE raced well from behind in her 4-year-old debut and could easily step up with that start under her belt. Notice she has a big-track win at Vernon last year.