Meadowlands: Analysis for Friday 5/5
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FINAL WINTER MEET STATS: 363-102-77-43 / $621.10 (-$104.90)
BEST BETS: 27-8-10-2 / $39.40 (-14.60)
SPOT PLAYS: 27-6-6-3 / $38.20 (-$17.80)
BEST BET: COMMAND (12th)
SPOT PLAY: SEVEN SINS (4th)
Race 1: Meadowlands Amateur Drivers Club-TM 67.7 or less draw inside - Pick 5
(6) CAMLACHIE CHROME didn't exactly get the best steer in the world last time and still finished second. Same driver here but hopefully he pushes on the gas from the start. (8) BETTOR B SAWYER gets a driver who likes to leave and this horse has some early zip. The main question is whether she'll show more in start two for this barn. (2) ROCK TO GLORY should come away mid-pack from this post and get an opportunity to shine late in the mile off cover.
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Race 2: Winners 1-2 races life/Maidens draw inside
(4) TACTICAL MOUNDS is a horse I always thought had some ability and she flashed that raw speed in a 1:55 4/5 qualifying win at Northfield a few weeks back. In a field without a clear standout she can make some noise. (5) THE EMPRESS ICE already has a win this year over the track while others are mostly finding their way. (3) KARABOUDJAN chased a slow pace and finished steadily last time. With that effort under her belt, perhaps we see more now.
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Race 3: Non-winners $3,000 in last 5/TM 77 (NW L3 77.5) or less/NW 1 race in 2023 (12+ starts) - Survivor 7
(3) BEYOND ORDINARY came up short last time after missing a few weeks of action. Tonight he gets major class relief and figures to awaken. (6) SWAN TRIXIE was a bit better last time and now she adds Lasix to the equation. Dunn chose here over four others. As long as the price is reasonable I'd take a shot. (4) MYCROWNMYKINGDOM is eligible to step up moving back to the big track.
Race 4: Non-winners 1-2 races life
(7) SEVEN SINS faced older in his first career start and didn't race badly. With that experience and in against his peers, we might just see a more aggressive try at big odds. (8) ARI FERRARI J rallied impressively in his 2023 debut and figures to be bet accordingly. (4) AIR POWER blew out a strong qualifier with a 27-second kicker. He's worth some consideration in the Pick 5.
Race 5: Meadowlands Amateur Drivers Club-TM 70 or less draw inside
(3) ROCKABILLY CHARM went his best mile in some time last weekend. In a field that lacks an obvious standout, let's take a shot that he's about to get good. (7) TAKEITTOTHEFACE was racing very well before running up on a foe last time and making a break. Any smooth trip makes him a contender. (5) DANDY IDEA will be on the lead and it is just a matter of how slow they let him go.
Race 6: Non-winners $5,000 in last 5/TM 80.5 or less - $50K GTD Pick 4
(3) STRAIGHT TALK was just steady last time when I thought he could menace at a price. The odds will likely be shorter this week and hopefully he'll be put in play versus a weaker group. (1) IDEAL BEACH should push away hard and work out a good trip. (5) ROCKATHON moves back to the big track for the first time since 2021. Perhaps the bigger oval will pick him up.
Race 7: Non-winners $7,500 in last 5 or 5 races life/TM 83.9 or less
(5) MISS CHANTILLY N jumped it off well before the start in her U.S. debut and it is hard to know at this point how good she is going to be here. The one qualifier over the big track was solid and seeing a 1:51 3/5 win in Australia is encouraging. Let's roll the nice here. (10) HOT MESS EXPRESS caught some tough competition last time and simply couldn’t handle them. This is a better spot despite the bad draw. (3) UPTOWN LADY N comes in on an angle I usually avoid - a noticeable driver change - since the odds usually reflect it, but this is a quality mare who I expect Dunn to get plenty out of tonight. (6) HUNTRESS has speed and form. She'll have to prove her ability to go 1:51.
Race 8: Non-winners $5,000 (NW L3 $5,501) in last 5/TM 80 (NW 2L5 81.20) or less - Pick 6
(2) DISTANCE LEARNING went a very nice mile on the engine in his first start for this barn and first outing since early February. Against a sketchy group he appears the one to beat. (6) NICE GUY EDDIE couldn't handle the small track but raced well three starts back here. (7) SO LONG HANOVER didn't fire versus better after missing more than seven months. More expected on the class drop.
Race 9: Meadowlands Amateur Drivers Club
(8) JONAH finds an amateur field that seems to lack much early speed and Verruso can take advantage. (4) THNDRFRMTHETHRON N rallied nicely from the back last time and seemingly is a dead closer but he has shown early speed on this track in the past. Is tonight a night to change tactics? (5) SUNSHINE’S FINEST paced the fastest mile by far of this group when second last time.
Race 10: $20,000-$30,000 Claiming Handicap - $50K GTD Pick 4
(5) GOOD ROCKIN is feeling good right now and when he is, he's capable of beating better than he faces tonight. The short field should ensure he's in striking position for his late rally. (4) AS ALWAYS isn't one of my favorites but it does appear that he could get away with much softer fractions on the front this week. (6) MARGRTITE is a tough call. Is he off form or simply ready to awaken on the class drop tonight?
Race 11: Meadowlands Amateur Drivers Club
(6) TEXAS TERROR N has performed well in this amateur class all year and continues to "bring it" as a 15-year-old. Better post tonight only adds to his chances of success. (1) GRATEFUL KISS is certainly sharp but very win-shy with only four wins versus 11 second-place finishes in his career. (7) OKIE FROM MUSKOGEE should be firing to the front and did wire an amateur field last weekend.
Race 12: Non-winners 2-4 (3YO 5) races life/Maidens draw inside
(3) COMMAND was used a bit to make the front at the three-eighths marker, yielded and chased through a pedestrian 28 4/5 third quarter and had no shot of catching the 1-5 pacesetter in a 26-second final quarter. Diamond Creek homebred appears to have ability and should improve in his second start of the year. (9) ANTS MARCHING is clearly the horse to beat at first glance as he puts his unblemished record in 2023 on the line, but one has to wonder how hard he'll be pushed from post 9 in a somewhat unimportant race in the grand scheme of things. As the favorite he's a pass for me. (2) DUVAL STREET has hinted at ability in two starts this year. He finally draws inside and we could see what he has in the tank this time.
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Race 13: Non-winners $2,000 in last 5/TM 77.5 (NW 2L5 78.5) or less/Opt. $12,500 Clm.
(4) CHEYENNE RYAN LEE should be cutting the mile here without too much company. He's been to this track before and often got caught up in fast miles. This is a great spot. (3) MISSILE SEELSTER has raced well since the claim and there is a reasonable chance he's sitting the pocket behind the top pick. (1) YAYAS HOT SPOT drops back to the level of his last win two starts back.
Race 14: Trackmaster 74 (Not 3rd L5 75.55) or less
(5) SCIROCCO PATRICK drops to the basement Trackmaster condition tonight in start two for these connections. His initial go was decent on an "off" track and don’t be surprised if he shows more here. (7) BOASTER COASTER drops back to the level of his last win and merits respect. (1) IFNOTMEWHO has been getting better of late. (6) MATS PALEMA remains winless this year but has been racing competitively lately.