Meadowlands

Meadowlands: Analysis for Friday 3/4

Derick Giwner|Mar 02, 2022

MEET STATS: 168-37-25-24 / $221.40 (-$114.60)

BEST BETS: 12-6-2-2 / $23.60 (-0.40)

SPOT PLAYS: 12-3-2-1 / $27.80 (+$3.80)

BEST BET: TOCCOA FALLS (4th)

SPOT PLAY: BETTORS HEART N (12th)

Race 1: TrackMaster Rating 77 (NW L3 77.5) or less/4YO Mares NW15K life - Pick 5

In a wide-open race, let's try (7) TRENTS A LOCK. This 4-year-old is young enough to improve and put in a much better effort in his second qualifier for new connections. (5) CLASSIC VENTURE has the early speed to make the front and sit no worse than a pocket trip. (4) MARVELOUSTRIX is always capable in this class. The smaller field and number of potential breakers should keep her in striking range. (1) HALLIAMA won last time in this class but hardly warrants a short price.

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Race 2: Non-winners $2,500 in last 5/TM 75 (NW L3 75.5) or less

(1) PAPPY ROCKS got a useful start from off the pace in her first start after the claim and should be much more involved this week. (6) I WILL DO IT drops down to a level where she has seen plenty of success and you know she'll be firing off the gate. (2) FLASH A SMILE has snuck into the exotics at big prices lately and can do it again.

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Race 3: GSY Pace - Survivor 7

(7) KEEP COMING had a useful start over the track after nine months on the sidelines and should improve against a sketchy group. (2) S MCKEE looks pretty bad on paper but does tend to show up in spots like this one. (4) ALWAYS A FORCE goes out for the Amateur Driver of the Year and seems worth a look.

Race 4: Winners 3-5 races (FM, NW L3 or N/S in 2022 6) life

(6) TOCCOA FALLS won at first asking for new trainer Engblom and then ran into a couple of horses that would be 1-5 in this spot. He's far and away the horse to beat. (7) YOU WILL BE QUEEN is perhaps best equipped to best the top pick if he runs into any trouble. She has enough speed to gain position and is fast enough on her best. (1) BIRDMAN has been holding his own of late but underneath seems like his ceiling.

Race 5: GSY Pace

(2) STATESMAN N switches to a new driver in the bike this week and gets one more shot from me. 15-year-old needs to stick closer to the action and Stillwell should have that game plan. (1) FERNADO was in against tougher last time at Pocono and stuck in bad posts prior to that. Expect a big effort from him. (6) JERRYTONE & (7) FERDINAND A both have early speed and either is capable of going down the road if left alone.

Race 6: Non-winners $7,500-$10,500 in last 5 or 6 races life/TM 85 or less - $50K GTD Pick 4

(4) KEEP ROCKIN A came up short in her return from a brief vacation. She lands in a soft field now and gets Tetrick in the bike. (3) TANGO DANCER N yielded to a 55-1 shot last time and she took her right out of the race. With a smoother journey this gal can make some noise. (5) ROYALTYWESTHO has the speed to set the pace and just enough form to perhaps handle this bunch. (2) LADY LOU has lost my confidence after stopping on the lead last time, though I wouldn't be shocked if she won.

Race 7: GSY Pace

(5) NOTABADGAME has been a solid performer in the GSY series and should benefit from a potential crazy speed duel with #9 and #10 potentially leaving hard. (4) MV OK PALACIO BR closes well week after week and that style looks perfect for this race. (1) STELLAR BB gets away from the outside of the gate and certainly fits with these. (6) PREPPY ART won his last GSY appearance from off the pace three starts back.

Race 8: Non-winners $10,500 in last 5 - Pick 6

(10) SCIROCCO ROB doesn’t come off the best qualifier and hasn't raced since September, but his best is 10 lengths better than this field and as long as you get 2-1 or higher, I'd take my chances that even his "B" game can get the job done. (5) MEADOWBRANCH RICKY has been a consistent performer of late and perhaps the switch to Dunn can make the difference. (7) HAMMER TIME drops back down to the level of his last win. (2) CHIPLOSIVE seems to be back in form and didn't exactly catch the best field for the NW10000 condition.

Race 9: TrackMaster 79.5 (NW L3/5 80/80.8) or less - Leg 1

In a race with more questions than answers, (1) WAKEMESHAKEME qualified decently in her first start for Burke and I'll be surprised if she isn't ready to fire against a field like this one. (5) GREENHILL HANOVER gets plenty of class relief and raced reasonably well here five and six starts back. She's probably the horse to beat. (6) GREYSTONE NATALIO adds Lasix and changes barns but hasn't raced in four weeks.

Race 10: Non-winners $20,000 (NW L2 $22,000) in last 5/TM 94 or less - $50K GTD Pick 4

(5) BIG OIL picked up a nice win last out and should be heading to the top here. Unless the 7 or 8 leave hard, which I'm not expecting, he should be sitting pretty again. (4) KENZIESKY HANOVER will clearly be heading to the top and figures to be in a good spot behind the top pick. (1) JL CRUZE doesn't exactly face the best of the best tonight. His chances come down to the trip. Will he try an early brush or hope for racing room from the three-hole?

Race 11: Non-winners $4,500 (NW L3 $4,950) in last 5/TM 78.5 (NW L3/5 79/79.64)

In a tricky race to decipher, let’s try (1) GLACIER HANOVER. The 4-year-old didn't show much in his first start since October but more importantly got around the track without incident. He's as fast as any of the older more experienced horses in the field if he's sharper this week. (6) HATIKVAH didn't fire in his first start for Burke and was quickly given some time off; more now? (5) ZOOMING drops this week and perhaps the 14-year-old still has something left in the tank. (7) BUZZ improved on the class drop last time and can certainly win here with a top effort.

Race 12: Non-winners $14,000 in last 5/TM 88 (NW L3/5 88.5/89) or less

(6) BETTORS HEART N was unimpressive at Freehold after setting soft fractions but perhaps that will improve our price tonight. She's better suited to the mile track and should perk up accordingly. (7) MACHNHOPE is probably making her final prep before the Matchmaker series at Yonkers and will be interesting to see if she is stretch out tonight. (5) NO WIN NO FEED A hasn't had much of a chance trying to close from the back; new tactics here? (3) JM BETONSIX has speed and decent form; hard to ignore.

Race 13: TrackMaster 74.5 (NW L3/5 75.41/75.5)/Opt. $7,500 Clm.

(8) DL'S BIG ELVIS has been super in this class and getting Dunn in the bike can only help. (10) MIKI MINAJ has the early zip to make the front and I'd argue that this field is less talented than what he has been facing in the NW2 class. (6) CRUNCH faced a killer most recently and raced well for second. (1) EFFRONTE A couldn't handle the outside post at Yonkers last time. His best makes him a player.