Meadowlands: Analysis for Friday 1/6

FINAL FALL MEET STATS: 211-55-35-29 / $369.40 (-$52.60)

BEST BETS: 16-8-3-0 / $45.00 (+13.00)

SPOT PLAYS: 16-2-2-4 / $10.20 (-$19.80)

BEST BET: MUSCLE FASHION (11th)

SPOT PLAY: SOUL ASSASSIN (14th)

Race 1: GSY 1 Pace for TM 71 or less - Pick 5

(1) VALIANT IVY ships down from Cumberland with good form and should be able to drop the necessary 4-5 seconds to compete. (3) FERDINAND A is clearly the one to beat as the likely pacesetter, but notice he got nailed late in each of his recent starts. (6) DEERFIELD BEACH is down in class and might revert to aggressive tactics.

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Race 2: $7,500-$10,000 Claiming Handicap

(3) BRIGADOON has a recent win over the track which gives him a nice edge and the fact that he drops in for a tag says he'll be ready. (6) ILLINI DUKE just won from the eight-hole at Freehold and that is not easy to accomplish. Barn change shouldn't be an issue. (7) CONTROL TOWER is arguably the sharpest horse in the race if you can look past the four weeks of missed time. (1) HOWTOTRAINURDRAGON and (8) HARRY TERROR are both down in claiming price.

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Race 3: Non-winners 2 (NW L3 3) races or $20,000 (NW L3 $30,000) life - Survivor 7

(9) MAKE IT EASY kept her act together with hobbles added and you kind of get the feeling she'll enjoy the switch to the big track. (4) A NEW LEADER is clearly in cheaper and he's adding Lasix. Will he be ready after missing four weeks? (8) KELLY'S BABY is also coming off a break in action but did qualify well a week ago.

Race 4: TrackMaster 77 (NW L3/5 77.5/78) or less

(8) HOMESTRETCH WES seems to fit with these and has form. Willing to bet here that the trainer change can produce a horse with a smidge of early speed. (4) KIMANI N won at first asking for the new barn and has won three times since late October. The lack of a mark at The Meadowlands was a concern until I checked back in his lines and found a decent effort back in 2021. (10) MELANIE'S NICK won in this class from a bad post two back. His best is good enough.

Race 5: Non-winners $5,000 in last 5/TM 79.5 (NW L3/5 80/80.5) or less

(7) BAUTISTA has stopped on the lead in consecutive starts but those were weeks ago. Maybe he's fresher now or we'll see off the pace tactics. He's a very good fit in this condition. (2) INXS looks like the favorite judging by his recent win and second in this class in his last three starts. (5) TESLA SEELSTER has been in some tough spots at Yonkers lately and notice her career mark came on the big track at Mohawk.

Race 6: TrackMaster 80 (NW L3/5 80.5/81.31) or less - $50K GTD Pick 4

(7) I DRAINTHESWAMP blew out a couple of big qualifiers at Philly upon arrival and finished up the track in his debut while bleeding. Lasix on here and the price could be right. (3) ACTON HANOVER took some air and couldn't last after missing a month moving into the Burke barn; improvement expected. (4) GIVE IS AWAVE A could be overbet on a line that is probably not as good as it looks on paper. Import could certainly improve but I'd want at least 3-1 or likely higher.

Race 7: Winners 2-4 (NW L3 5) races or $50,000 (NW L3 $60,000) life

(4) A PERFECT HELEN is the best horse in the race for my money and I expect Peck to have her ready with Brennan jumping in the bike. (7) ROYALTYS ROCKET was a bit flat late after missing more than a month. He should be tighter now and gets a new pilot as well; using! (6) ARCHERY SEELSTER has early speed and a knack for getting a good check.

Race 8: Non-winners $5,000 in last 5/TM 79.5 (NW L3/5 80/80.5) or less - $4,834 Pick 6 carryover

(10) A BETTOR GAME was just even last time returning from two months on the sidelines from an outside post. The draw gets even worse here, but he seems to have caught a susceptible field on the class drop. (2) RABLE has been dropping in search of form and I'm willing to forgive the failure at this level last time since speed wasn't great on the sloppy track that night. Williams hasn't trained a horse on paper since 2010 but was a solid 12% conditioner from 2001 to 2010. (8) BAD MS JOHNSON gets a driver change here that could produce better results.

Race 9: Non-winners $10,500 in last 5 or 6 (NW L3 7) races life/TM 84.6 or less

(6) STIDE THE HILL finished last with Lasix added but did come home in 27 2/5, which was encouraging. Along with (7) CALL ME DANI, they both face a slightly easier group overall and either could step up with a big mile to win. (8) GOTWUTEVERITTAKES is up in company but proven capable in this class.

Race 10: Non-winners $12,000 in last 5 or 7 races life/TM 84.5 (NW L3/5 85.30/85.5) or less - $50K GTD Pick 4

(4) ROCKNROLL ANNIE took a nice shot at the winner last time and held her ground reasonably well. With a slightly smoother trip she can get the job done. (7) SO IRRESISTIBLE has been a consistent performer in this class that is hard to toss. (6) SHANGHAI SEELSTER did what she could but had too much ground to make up in her final start of 2022. Perhaps with the switch to Gingras we'll see more aggressive tactics.

Race 11: Non-winners $7,500 (NW L3 $8,250) in last 5/TM 82 (NW L3/5 82.5/83) or less

(4) MUSCLE FASHION went a gigantic parked-the-mile effort in defeat while losing to a fresh foe who sat the three-hole last time. Anything close to a repeat performance should make him tough. (7) MUFASA AS and (8) THE LAST CHAPTER both got backed into pretty badly last time by a horse that lost by 77 lengths. The former had better late trot but a more ground-saving trip.

Race 12: Non-winners $7,500 in last 5/TM 82.5 (NW L3/5 83/83.5) or less

(6) HEAVENISSOFARAWAY was used early and faded in her first start with Lasix added. Sometimes it takes a start for it to kick in and since none of these jump off the page for me, I'll take a shot here. (5) CALLMEQUEENBEE A leaves Yonkers as they are on vacation and seems to have landed in a soft spot. The Cullipher barn had its best year in terms of earnings in 2022 but was perhaps a bit sluggish at this track. Maybe 2023 starts off differently. (1) ITS MESMERISE N posted a nice score versus cheaper last weekend and could be a threat here with a similar effort.

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Race 13: Non-winners $3,000 (NW L3 $3,300) in last 5

(5) WHOLE LOTTA LOU switches to a driver that has had some success with him and also moves to the big track. With the majority of this field having been off for four weeks, it is hard to say which horse will be sharp. (8) RIFLEMAN took a shot on the class drop last time and weakened after his bid; another chance? (6) CINNAMACK picks up Brennan as the trainer exits the bike. (3) MIDNIGHT LIGHTNING has been stuck with outside posts in smaller tracks lately. Perhaps the change of scenery will result in a more forwardly-placed start.

Race 14: TrackMaster 74 (NW L3/5 74.5/75.25) or less

(1) SOUL ASSASSIN put in a very credible effort in his first start for new connections from an impossible post at Saratoga. Now he ships down to find a very soft spot in the basement condition here and if able to handle the big track, he should prove tough. (9) BACKSTREET LAWYER has missed nearly seven weeks, and that is a big question mark. That said, the raw speed is there and the trainer change is interesting. (4) ROCKABILLY CHARM gets an interesting driver change as he exits the amateur ranks. (5) RAPTORS FLIGHT N was rolling along here before making a break on the smaller oval at Freehold.