Meadowlands: Analysis for Friday 10/22
MEET STATS: 62-29-8-11 / $125.40 (+$1.40)
BEST BETS: 5-3-0-1 / $7.40 (-2.60)
SPOT PLAYS: 5-1-1-3 / $3.00 (-$7.00)
BEST BET: GET LEGS (3rd)
SPOT PLAY: DOUBLE DECEIVER (10th)
Race 1: Breeders Crown 2YO C&G Pace Elim - Pick 5
(6) MAJESTIC J looked good at the start of the season but quickly went sideways as the summer progressed. Off a solid closing effort last time, I'll roll the dice on an upset versus a field where I don't have confidence in any horse. (4) LETSDOIT S has the early speed to get good position and he really hasn't thrown in any bad races. (5) TEMPORAL HANOVER will likely be the chalk here but hardly seems deserving of a short price. On his best he'll be competitive.
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Race 2: Non-winners 2 or $20,000 life
(2) STRIDE THE HILL broke most recently but did put up a nice mile two starts back. The inside post should give him the chance to sit close and attack late. (7) DID YOU SEE LINDY came up second best last time but gained good experience as she dropped two seconds in time. Another step forward would make her tough. (5) AGRO DOLCE seems to be past her breaking issues and she had absolutely no shot in either of her recent starts after chasing a slow pace twice; price option. (10) STIFF DRINK and (9) KEN’S WALNER have shown hints of ability and neither would be a shock with the right trip.
Race 3: Non-winners $12,500(NW L3 $13,750) in last 4 or 7 (NW L3 8) races life - Survivor 7
(4) GET LEGS returns from a three-month break off a sharp qualifier and really doesn't face much competition. (2) JUSTLIKEHIM was racing very well here in September and got a good tightener at Freehold last Friday. (8) DONATOVER has some early speed in his arsenal and I wouldn't be surprised to see MacDonald gun him out.
Race 4: Non-winners $17,500 (NW L6 $20,750) in last 4 or 9 races life
(6) JL CRUZE got a needed rest and qualified back sharply. When he is feeling good this 10-year-old tends to do very well in this class. (2) CRYSTAL FASHION was used early and tired last time. He's a big player in this spot. (3) KINGS COUNTY broke in his return from a year on the sidelines but could certainly appreciate the stretch-out to the mile track. This guy has always been talented. (4) HOCKEY HANOVER has flashed a big mile here at times.
Race 5: Breeders Crown 2YO Filly Trot Elim
The undefeated (6) VENERABLE has proved herself as the best rookie trotter in the sport on multiple occasions. The Nifty Norman trainee is well rested after her Mohawk Million win and won't go down without a fight. (5) LILBITALEXIS was on quite a roll before going down at The Red Mile on a track that wasn't particularly kind to horses on the lead. She'll be a handful for the top pick. (4) SELFIE QUEEN finished a couple of lengths behind #5 last time, but that distance isn't insurmountable. She can step forward.
Race 6: Breeders Crown 2YO Filly Trot Elim - Pick 6
(6) RAISED BY LINDY has taken her game to a new level in recent weeks. If she can continue her run at a new locale this week these horses are in trouble. (3) JOVIALITY S hasn't lost in forever and her only question to answer is whether she is fast enough go with the top pick. (5) DELILAH HANOVER rallied nicely behind #3 last out. Her best effort puts her in the equation.
Race 7: Breeders Crown 2YO C&G Pace Elim
(3) HAMMERING HANK couldn't have paced home any faster in that last qualifier and some of his wins (he's undefeated) have been quite impressive as well. (2) CAVIART CAMDEN has that one huge 1:48 3/5 win on his card where he sat a great trip and took advantage of a fast pace. Since then I've avoided him at short prices, but he becomes more interesting here adding Lasix. (6) GENTLE GIANT has compiled a solid résumé at Hoosier and his early speed makes him a factor in the exotics.
Race 8: Breeders Crown 2YO C&G Trot Elim
(2) SLAY was superb two starts back and closer to bad last time when he stopped in the stretch. Considering how tiring the track was that day at The Red Mile, perhaps we can give him a pass and take advantage of what should be a good price. (3) DULY RESOLVED has never been worse than second in his career while going some very impressive miles. He's clearly the horse to beat. (6) WORLD AT WAR DEO moves into the Burke barn and is coming off a win; mixed feelings at what may be an undesirable price. (7) REBUFF is another who should take action off a speedy win at The Red Mile, but note that he had an absolutely perfect trip that day.
Race 9: Breeders Crown 2YO C&G Pace Elim - $50K GTD Pick 4
Whether (2) BEACH GLASS will be playable depends on how many people are watched his overnight races at Mohawk. This colt from the last crop of Somebeachsomewhere is campaigned by the same connections that brought that great one to the track and in three starts so far he looks the part! (1) TRUE BLUE LINDY went a long mile in the Metro but his other starts look great on paper. (6) I DID IT MYWAY missed time with a throat issue and wasn't exactly sharp in his qualifier. Prior to the issue he was one of the best in Pennsylvania. I wouldn't be shocked if he showed more here.
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Race 10: Breeders Crown 2YO C&G Trot Elim
(4) DOUBLE DECEIVER has proven to be fast enough to go with any in this field and I love that they skipped the second week at Lexington to give him a qualifier over the track here. With any reasonable trip he can upset the red-hot (2) BRANDED BY LINDY. The latter played the track bias and won convincingly last time but really has looked good week after week in Kentucky. How will that transfer to this surface? (6) ROBERTSIN raced well with lasix added in the qualifier and we know he can blast to the lead, which seems likely to be the plan.
Race 11: Breeders Crown 2YO C&G Pace Elim
In addition to a long winning streak, (2) EARLY ACTION finds himself in a great spot where Sears will likely get aggressive since his main competition seems likely to race from off the pace; slight edge. (7) FULFULLNMYDESTINY has looked like an absolute killer at times. Just throw out that last line because the trip was brutal. If Yoder can work out a decent trip, watch out! (3) PEBBLE BEACH could have the most raw talent in the field, but his races on the front have come up short and if he doesn't go to the front he might be looking at a first-over trip.
Race 12: Breeders Crown 2YO Filly Pace Elim
Something has to give here as a pair of unbeaten fillies clash in a race where you only have to finish eighth to advance to the final. None of these wants to take the chance of starting from post 10 next week so I'll go on the assumption that (7) NIKI HILL will be forwardly placed looking to earn a good post with a win. She has been the most impressive of this division so far. (2) SEA SILK puts her nine-race winning streak on the line and you know she'll be near the front here. (3) BOUDOIR HANOVER went a big mile in her last start and a repeat performance puts her in the picture. (4) GOTTHEGREENLIGHT has just one loss in nine career starts and should be a double-digit price at post time; hmmm.