Meadowlands: 3-year-olds battle older mares in Saturday's TVG Mare Pace

It's not often during the racing season that harness fans can get a glimpse of the future. Perhaps Saturday (Nov. 26) will be that rare moment to visualize what the 2023 season may look like if your particular interest is pacing mares.

Defending Horse of the Year Test Of Faith will be looking to rebound from a rare defeat that came in the Breeders Crown when Grace Hill was the upset winner. Of perhaps more importance, the TVG Mare Pace final will give us the opportunity to see sophomore Crown champion Treacherous Dragon make her last start as a 3-year-old while facing older foes for the first time.

Trainer Brett Pelling sounded confident, yet concerned about the TVG Final. Pelling conditioned Treacherous Dragon this year before the filly was moved by her owner to the Nancy Takter stable.

"I think the biggest difference is versatility," said Pelling about what advantage Test Of Faith may have over Treacherous Dragon and other 3-year-olds at this point in the season. "She was solid in her qualifier."

The qualifier was the first time Treacherous Dragon and Test of Faith have met in an actual race, and the results may be a tad misleading. Treacherous Dragon was a neck the good in the November 19 Meadowlands event, a 1:52 mile that saw the sophomore daughter of Captaintreacherous kick home in 25 3/5. Test Of Faith, racing well off the action, sprinted her final quarter in 25 flat to make the "non-race" interesting.

Nancy Takter is looking forward to not just the TVG final, but next year for Treacherous Dragon. "She does just as much as she needs to do," said Takter of Treacherous Dragon.

Those not wanting to take Takter's comments verbatim need only look at Treacherous Dragon's last four races (two qualifiers) where she was victorious each time by the exact "neck" margin. Her last victory came over Niki Hill in the Breeders Crown when Scott Zeron found a clear path in the late stages and Treacherous Dragon finished it off.

"She knows what she has to do when it comes to race time," said Takter of Treacherous Dragon.

Takter took over the training of Treacherous Dragon following her victory in the Fan Hanover Stakes on June 18, and the filly went through a mid-season slump that culminated in a disappointing sixth-place finish in the Pennsylvania Sire Stakes championship on September 3.

"She just wasn't finishing her miles," said Takter of the reason she elected to put Treacherous Dragon on the Lasix program. Since her first qualifier with Lasix on September 11 in a Red Mile qualifier, Treacherous Dragon is unbeaten, including straight-heat victories in the Jugette.

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With the return to the races of Niki Hill, regular pilot Dexter Dunn moved back to last year's juvenile champion and Scott Zeron took the helm of Treacherous Dragon. Last year, Treacherous Dragon lived in the shadow of Niki Hill for most of the season, but in 2022, with Niki Hill sidelined for much of the stakes action, Treacherous Dragon has elevated herself as the likely divisional champion. That said, just where she ranks against a solid group of older mares is a question that can only be answered in a competitive mile, one we're likely to see on Saturday.

Pelling, who knows Treacherous Dragon quite well having campaigned her during her 2-year-old campaign and up to the Fan Hanover final she captured, was complimentary of the filly when she left his barn. "I think she'll continue to race well for Nancy," Pelling said at the time of the transfer.

As for the coming TVG final: "I'm not sure if she [Treacherous Dragon] can leave the gate as well as some of the older mares, and that could make it harder for get the trip she needs," Pelling said.

As for Test Of Faith, the loss in the Breeders Crown was a bitter pill to swallow for her trainer, driver and ownership. The 4-year-old by Art Major got away sixth from the pole position and too far back for driver David Miller to make an early move towards the front. Grace Hill and driver Doug McNair took advantage of that placement, putting his mare on the front end where she stayed, holding off Test Of Faith by a head in the 1:48 4/5 mile.

Miller perhaps expected second choice Mikala to provide the necessary cover for Test Of Faith to kick home off of, but that cover didn't get Test Of Faith close enough to Grace Hill before three-quarters had been completed, making the task near impossible.

"The horse I'm concerned about [in the TVG] is Grace Hill," said Pelling. "She's gotten a lot better over the season."

Grace Hill became a millionaire with her victory in the Breeders Crown and comes into the TVG off a career-best performance. Perhaps the best attribute in Grace Hill's arsenal is her ability to race as well on the front-end as she does from off-the-pace.

It's to be expected that Test Of Faith, who also adds Lasix this week, will be driven more aggressively in the TVG Mare Pace after the Breeders Crown second-place finish. With 11 wins this year in 18 starts, Test Of Faith has succeeded in three brilliant campaigns in succession. More remarkable is the fact that in 43 career starts she's only finished worse than second on just one occasion.

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Whatever the result of Saturday's TVG Mare Pace, the division will take a turn for the better in 2023 with Test Of Faith returning for her 5-year-old season and both Treacherous Dragon and Niki Hill joining the division on a full-time basis. Given the late-season heroics of Niki Hill, there's a good chance the daughter of Always B Miki will push the other mares to their absolute limits. Niki Hill had captured consecutive Grand Circuit races at The Red Mile before her second-place finish in the Breeders Crown. She followed that performance up with a victory in the Matron at Dover Downs that defies description. The 1:49 4/5 victory on November 10 saw her effortlessly pace a sub-54 back half in a final clocking that was nearly two full seconds faster than Pebble Beach needed to win the colt and gelding division.

Both Takter and Pelling will send out horses in Saturday's Fall Final Four at the Meadowlands. Takter said, "We're going to put Save America on Lasix," when asked about the sub-par performance of the 2-year-old pacing colt in one of last week's Governor's Cup trials. "He's been fine until that final eighth."

Pelling is hoping that Earthwindfire, who received a bye for the Three Diamonds, will be better than she's been through her most recent starts. "She had an issue with her foot that we hope is resolved," said Pelling about the American Ideal-sired half-sister to Niki Hill.

Which of these top females will prevail? Tune in for race nine on Saturday when all will be revealed.