With McKinzie out, Justify could run in Santa Anita Derby

An injury that will keep McKinzie from a rematch with Bolt d’Oro in the Santa Anita Derby next Saturday could start a domino effect that puts unbeaten Justify into that race's lineup instead of heading to the Arkansas Derby on April 14.

Trainer Bob Baffert, reached via text in Dubai after West Coast and Mubtaahij ran two-three in the World Cup on Saturday, said Justify could run in the Santa Anita Derby “if he works well Monday.”

Justify is scheduled for a workout at Santa Anita on Monday, which would be Baffert’s first day back at the track since leaving last Sunday for Dubai.

Justify has won both his starts, both this year. His next start will be his stakes debut.

When Baffert arrives back in California he will also get to finally assess the condition of McKinzie, who at the least has been ruled out of the Santa Anita Derby. McKinzie most recently finished first, but was disqualified to second, after a stretch-long duel with Bolt d’Oro in the San Felipe Stakes.

Baffert, in a text, said the injury to McKinzie is “not as bad as initially thought.”

“No Santa Anita Derby. Do more tests on him. Just being cautious,” his text said.

In Dubai, Baffert told reporters after the World Cup that it was unclear how McKinzie had hurt himself, or the exact nature of the injury. McKinzie worked five furlongs in 59.40 seconds at Santa Anita on Monday, the fastest of 118 works at the distance that morning. According to Baffert, McKinzie had a nuclear scan, did not go to the track as soon as usual after his work, but is back jogging.

“We don't know if he did it in the stall or what, because he was fine," Baffert said.

Baffert said his staff “noticed he was a little bit off.”

“He didn't go to the track,” Baffert said. “The X-rays are clean. Ankles look good, hocks - something came up high [on the leg] on the nuke scan.

“When he got back he 100 percent jogged fine. I don't know what it was, but we're being very cautious. It's day by day, week by week."

Obviously, missing the Santa Anita Derby could put McKinzie’s status for the Kentucky Derby on May 5 in jeopardy.

McKinzie has won three times in four starts, including a victory via disqualification in the Los Alamitos CashCall Futurity in December.

If Justify is routed to the Santa Anita Derby, that likely would change the field size for the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby. Steve Asmussen on Saturday said Combatant would be considered for the Arkansas Derby if Justify goes elsewhere.

In addition, the connections of Baffert-trained Solomini want to get him a Grade 1 win after he was taken down in the Los Alamitos Futurity, so if Justify doesn’t go to Arkansas that could end up being a spot for Solomini rather than the Grade 2 Wood Memorial next Saturday.

--additional reporting by Marcus Hersh