McGee: Social Inclusion no sure thing in Stephens
Saturday: Grade 2 Woody Stephens Belmont (race 5, post 1:54 p.m. Eastern)
Like so many of the Belmont undercard stakes, the Woody Stephens promises to be full of intrigue and all sorts of possibilities.
The seven-furlong race for 3-year-olds has a solid favorite in Social Inclusion (No. 11), the “name” horse of the group who finished third in the Preakness and was considered for the Belmont until early this week.
But is he really that good – especially at this shorter distance?
He very well might not be, and this looks like a prime spot to try to spread and beat him in both the verticals and the multiple-race wagers. Yes, he’s well drawn to the outer, and he should get a good trip – but sharpies will see that and perhaps bet him even harder they would have otherwise.
::DRF Live: Get real-time reports and handicapping insights from Belmont all day Saturday
With that said, let’s take a stand against him and look at Bayern (No. 1), whose Preakness is a toss and comes back rather quickly for Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert. If the rail is good – and it might very well be on a big day like this – then jockey Gary Stevens, another Hall of Famer, could be sending him hard, and this colt might just have enough class to turn back all comers.
Still, there are a handful of others to consider on secondary tickets. The May 10 Laz Barrera at Santa Anita looks like a semi-key prep for the Stephens. Three starters from the Laz Barrera (Tonito M., Kobe’s Back, and Top Fortitude) will run at Belmont. They’re all going to be overlays and are worth strong consideration. Likewise, the April 5 Bay Shore at Aqueduct also has produced a couple of live ones in Coup de Grace and Financial Mogul.
::2014 BELMONT STAKES UNDERCARD: Latest news, video, PPs, and more
While there are countless ways to tie all these horses, one way is to key Bayern first and second in exactas and trifectas with those other five while trying to hit a lick. It seems as if big days such as this one always tend to produce occasional bombs-away mutuels . . . and with a vulnerable favorite in here, this might be one of those spots.