McGee: Kentucky Downs pick five play for Saturday, Sept. 8, 2018
With a multitude of wagering pools always available, a horseplayer must persistently ask himself or herself this easy question (that often lacks an easy answer): In what pool will I find the most value?
In regard to the Saturday card at Kentucky Downs, where I’m bullish on back-to-back horses in late races, the question is this: Will I get a bigger payoff by betting a cold $60 daily double combining Lull (R8) and Conquest Panthera (R9) – or might I be better off singling them in a 50-cent pick-5 (R6-10) and hoping it will yield a higher return that’s worthy of the additional risk?
Well, on the off chance I’m not alive after the first two legs (or chalk wins both), I can always resort to a cold double in races 8-9. But just in case there are prices to be had in races 6 and 7, well, the right decision will have already been made in plotting out a pick-5 play.
Here’s the layout:
Race 6: I was initially tempted to rely solely on the Wesley Ward fillies, Moonlight Romance (10) and Mae Never No (11), but thought it’d be worth throwing in a few longer shots, too, such as Chattel (2), Faraway Kitten (3), Carter Cat (5), and Blame the Frog (9).
Race 7: This might be the trickiest race in the sequence, and four might actually not be enough – but it’ll just have to do. Either I’m Betty G (1) or Pas de Soucis (6) seems entirely capable of taking this field all the way, assuming they don’t get in each other’s way, while Hallie Belle (7) and Dubara (10) both have solid late-run capabilities at square mutuels.
:: See Marty McGee’s pick five play in DRF TicketMaker and bet it with DRF Bets
Race 8: Lull (6) has run huge over the KD course already, going 2 for 2 in stakes company, and her last two efforts, at Belmont and Woodbine, should set her up for another rich payday, albeit probably at less than the 2-1 morning-line price.
Race 9: The likelihood of a hot pace up front could put Conquest Panthera (1) in prime position for the long stretch run, as Florent Geroux will have him ready to pounce after settling into rhythm. I agree fully with trainer Mark Casse in believing the 7-furlong distance should hit this classy gelding right between the eyes.
Race 10: It’d be a huge mistake to leave out either of the Mike Maker favorites, Bigger Picture (4) and Oscar Nominated (6), but just in case something unexpected occurs, I’ll also use Nessy (2), Manitoulin (3), and Arklow (8), hoping to coax some value out of the pick-5.
Here’s the straight-A ticket:
R6: 2, 3, 5, 9, 10, 11
R7: 1, 6, 7, 10
R8: 6
R9: 1
R10: 2, 3, 4, 6, 8
50-cent ticket = $60