McGee: How I'll play Saratoga on Sunday, July 23
Trainer Danny Gargan has two entries on the 11-race Sunday card at Saratoga, and both were easy winners last out. Gargan shows a 30 percent strike rate with last-out winners (29 for 84), and I’ll give both horses a big chance when using them on opposite ends of pick-three wagers. They’re the must-win cornerstones in my first two plays of the day.
Race 4: Following a five-month layoff, PHI BETA EXPRESS (2) made quite a favorable impression in her first start under Gargan’s care, and she could take plenty of catching after being sent from the rail again by Kendrick Carmouche when entered for favorable starter conditions.
Race 5: Operating on the suspicion that morning-line favorite Thebigfundamental (1) might get rejected (basketball pun fully intended) when rising once again in class and going two turns for the first time, I’ll spread here with the other logical plays: ROYAL POSSE (2), SECURITIZ (3), DOYOUKNOWSOMETHING (7), and TURCO BRAVO (8).
Race 6: This is one of those typical Saratoga turf jumbles, so I’ll spread liberally when (A) trying to stay alive, and (B) trying to catch a price when doing so. From the main body, I’ll use more than half the field by punching out 1, 4, 5, 7, 9, 10, 12.
Race 7: One concern with the Gargan-trained COURTMEWITHCARATS (5) is the presence of ample opposing speed, but her outer post relative to those other fast 3-year-old fillies could give Carmouche a tactical edge; furthermore, the 5-1 morning-line price seems generous for a filly dropping from $40,000 to $25,000.
Here are the TicketMaker links:
Race 4-6 pick three
Race 5-7 pick three
I have two other plays late in the card. I’ll give MOST BEAUTIFUL (8) a solid chance to come flying late at a price (12-1 morning line) in Race 9, a speed-laden turf sprint. The Tom Proctor-trained filly has shown hints of potential in some of her prior starts and might finally benefit from a fall-apart pace. I’ll bet straight and maybe hook her up in some verticals.
In the Grade 1 Coaching Club American Oaks (Race 10), I’ll try to slow the Bob Baffert/Mike Smith juggernaut by trying to beat an overbet Abel Tasman (2) with the capable duo of ELATE (1) and SALTY (7), using simple exacta and trifecta part-wheels of 1, 7 over 1, 2, 7.
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