McGee: How I'll play Santa Anita for Saturday, Nov. 5
Pick-4 on races 4-7
Trainer Ron Ellis is predicting a giant effort from MASOCHISTIC, the 2-1 morning-line favorite in the BC Sprint (race 6) Saturday at Santa Anita, and with his favorable outside post, his two big preps this year, his steady training pattern, and Mike Smith choosing him over Drefong, I’m very much inclined to believe him.
Instead of betting $126 to win and hoping to essentially double my money – with the key defections of Lord Nelson and Joking, he won’t be much higher than even-money – I’ll try for a home run by scatter-shooting the other three races in the first pick 4 of Saturday's BC events. I’ve sprinkled in quite a few price horses with logical ones in coming up with this straight all-A ticket that uses Masochistic as a single:
Race 4: 2, 3, 4, 5, 8, 10
Race 5: 1, 3, 4, 8, 11, 12
Race 6 – 7
Race 7 – 1, 4, 8, 9, 12, 13, 14
50-cent ticket = $126
In the leadoff BC race, the Juvenile Fillies (race 4), there should be a fast pace forced from the outside post by American Gal (12), and I’m dubious of her chances to take them wire to wire given she’s facing a far better lineup than what she has defeated to date. Similarly, I’m skeptical of the chances of Union Strike (9), because of how she was forced to skip her interim prep. Of the half-dozen I’ll use, WITH HONORS (2) is my top pick (and a nice 10-1 price on the morning line to boot), given improvement over her Chandelier effort and a crafty inside stalking trip under Flavien Prat. I’ll also use VALADORNA (3), YELLOW AGATE (4), SWEET LORETTA (5), DANCING RAGS (8), and NOTED AND QUOTED (10).
There are a couple of formidable favorites in the BC Filly and Mare Turf (R5) in SEVENTH HEAVEN (3) and LADY ELI (8), but lifetime bests from any of the following quartet might be enough to keep the ticket alive for a bigger hit: SEA CALISI (1), AVENGE (4), QUEEN’S TRUST (11), and PRETTY PERFECT (12).
In the final leg, the waaaay-wide-open BC Turf Sprint (race 7), I’ll use 7 of the 14 main-body starters in trying to ensure I’m sufficiently alive, with perhaps the most dangerous foiler being Obviously (2) … but does he really want to turn back? I’ll pay for lots of coverage with PURE SENSATION (1), HOME OF THE BRAVE (4), WASHINGTON DC (8), A LOT (9), OM (12), HOLY LUTE (13), and CELESTINE (14).
Here’s the link on DRF TicketMaker Mobile:
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